An influential prognosis by researchers at the University of Washington predicts that many more Americans will die of covid-19 in the coming months. They predict that about 100,000 people in the United States will die due to the pandemic by early December 2021. However, they also argue that widespread use of masks could curb these deaths by almost half.
He numbers come from the Institute of Health Metrics and Assessment (IHME), one of the oldest predictors during the pandemic, as part of its latest briefing released on the 25th of August. In their most likely scenario, they estimate that the current peak of the pandemic will reach its height in early to mid-September in reported cases, hospitalizations and deaths. These metrics will only gradually decrease from here, and by December 1, their model estimates that there will be 739,000 deaths per covid-19 reported in total in the U.S., just over 100,000 more than the current official toll. In terms of excess deaths, IHME projects will be more than 1.15 million by then (excess deaths largely include deaths caused directly by covid-19, but may also represent other deaths indirectly linked to the pandemic).
These are, of course, only projections, and there is room for variance, depending on many factors related to the spread of the pandemic and our response to it. One of the factors that the IHME takes into account for its estimates is the use of masks. At best, where universal mask coverage (around 95%) is reached next week, they estimate it would cause approximately 50,000 fewer deaths on December 1st. In the worst case, where the peak continues to grow and does not slow down until early October, they project a total of 812,000 deaths reported as of December 1, or about 72,000 more than baseline forecasts.
“We can save 50,000 lives simply with masks. So important are behaviors, “said Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics at the University of Washington and a researcher at the IHME. he said the P.
The recent wave of cases in the US, helped by the most transmissible and possibly more virulent Delta variant, tea directed to many more hospitalizations and deaths than similar rises observed in other highly vaccinated countries such as the United Kingdom. Currently, the United States is once again reporting more than 1,000 deaths a day, while more than 100,000 Americans are hospitalized. Much of this difference can be reduced to total vaccine coverage.
G / O Media may receive a commission
Although more people have been vaccinated in recent weeks, the overall rate in the US remains below many other highly vaccinated countries, with 52% of Americans totally vaccinated. And, despite some concerns about declining vaccine efficacy over time or in relation to Delta, most hospitalizations and deaths continue. involve the unvaccinated. The high level of community outreach has also meant that children also suffer from higher levels of hospitalization. reported throughout the pandemic, although their overall risk of severe covid-19 disease remains much lower than in adults.
Assuming they are projected the numbers turn out to be relatively accurate, they will consolidate several bleak aspects of the pandemic in the U.S. this year. It now seems likely that more Americans will die officially from covid-19 in 2021 than in 2020 (as of December 31, 2020, there had been about 350,000 reported dead). More Americans will also have died at a time when there were highly effective vaccines than before, and the first vaccines hit the public in mid-December last year. At the same time, probably these vaccines do desat more than 140,000 Americans already and counting, according to an estimate.