Turnover is a fact of life in the NFL. While the league added two playoff teams to form a 14-team team in 2020, five of the 12 teams that reached the postseason in 2019 made no return trip this season. This is a group that includes the 49ers, who were the top finishers in the NFC and their representatives in the Super Bowl LIV, and the Patriots, who had reached the playoffs in 17 of the previous 19 seasons. Jeans, Vikings and eagles also failed to return in January, with two of those three not even getting particularly close.
We try to project what the image of the 2021 playoffs might look like by the end of next season. Let me start with the obvious: it will go wrong. We don’t know who will coach even the Eagles or the Texans or whether their initial quarterbacks will stay one more season. In doing so, I am predicting that there is a small chance that Deshaun Watson or Carson Wentz will be passed on to one of their most obvious suitors, such as the Dolphins or Jets.
We know the Colts will have a new starting quarterback as Philip Rivers announced his retirement Wednesday, but Drew Brees ’future with the Saints is still up in the air. We don’t even know if fans will be able to cheer on the stadiums next September.
I will build on the facts we know, that is, how each team behaved in 2020 and how there will be at least 16 games on its calendar in 2021, to help make polite conjectures about next season’s playoff field. When I’ve made particularly surprising decisions, I’ve tried to give historical context to teams that have made comparable jumps or similar descents.
Let’s start with the team that is probably the least surprising choice of all, the defending champions:
Go to a team:
ATL | BAL | BUF | CHI | CLE
DAL | GB | IND | JAX | KC
LAR | MIA | NE | NO | PIT
SF | MAR | TB | DEU | WSH