17,000 earthquakes affected Iceland last week. An eruption could be imminent

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The largest earthquake, measuring 5.6 on the Richter scale, occurred on the morning of February 24. It was the strongest of a swarm that continues to shake residents of the nearby capital Reykjavík and the surrounding municipalities, where two-thirds of the Icelandic population lives. Two larger earthquakes (greater than magnitude 5.0) also affected February 27 and March 1.

Earthquakes have caused little damage so far, although the Icelandic Roads and Coasts Administration has reported small cracks in area roads and rock falls on steep slopes near the epicenter of the swarm.

“I have experienced earthquakes before but never so many in a row,” Reykjavik resident Auður Alfa Ólafsdóttir told CNN. “It’s very unusual to feel the Earth tremble 24 hours a day for a whole week. It makes you feel very small and helpless against nature.”

In the fishing town of Grindavík, locals have had a front row seat against the quakes. “I haven’t experienced anything like this before,” says Páll Valur Björnsson, who teaches at the local Fisheries College and is an adjunct member of Parliament.

“We’re used to it; it started a year ago. But it’s much more now, very disturbing. I’m not afraid, but that’s uncomfortable. I woke up twice yesterday because of [tremors]. There was a very large one when I went to sleep and woke up with one. It’s hard, but you have to learn to live with it, ”he said.

Iceland sits on a continuum of tectonic plates that divides continuously, moving North America and Eurasia away from each other along the mid-Atlantic ridge line. Most of the seismic activity here is only collected by sensitive scientific teams. Occasional strong tremors are an inevitable part of life in an active seismic region.

Only this time it looks like there will be no end to the underground uproar.

Þorvaldur Þórðarson, a professor of volcanology at the University of Iceland, said the understandings about recent activity are understandable. “Of course it worries people. For this region, this is really quite unusual, not because of the type of earthquakes or their intensity, but because of their duration. It’s been working for over a week now.”

“We’re struggling with the ‘why’ right now. Why is this happening? We’re very likely to have a magma intrusion into the [Earth’s] bark there. It has definitely approached the surface, but we are trying to find out if it is getting any closer, “he said. With several volcanoes in the area, local officials have warned that an eruption could be imminent.

The aerial view of February 28, 2021 shows the lighthouse and geothermal power plant near the town of Grindavik on the Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland.

Elísabet Pálmadóttir, a natural hazards specialist at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, told CNN that authorities are deploying surveillance equipment in the area, from GPS monitors and earthquakes to webcams and gas detectors.

Nor does she remember ever having experienced so many earthquakes over such a long period of time. He warns that a more powerful event could be a cause for concern and estimates that the area could experience an earthquake of magnitude 6 or higher.

“In this particular area, where we saw activity last week, we could experience a magnitude 6.0 earthquake. But we could have a 6.5 east of the area, east of Lake Kleifarvatn,” he says. .

According to the latest modeling from the University of Iceland’s volcanology and natural risk group, which released potential flow maps on Wednesday, no city appears to be at risk for lava flows in the event of a volcanic eruption.

Modeling of lava flow on the Reykjanes Peninsula by researchers from the University of Iceland at the Nordic Volcanological Center.

“Based on the current model, no major city is in danger,” volcanologist Ármann Höskuldsson told CNN, adding that Keflavík International Airport is one of the most direct connections between Iceland and the rest of the world. , would also save.

However, the main road connecting the airport with the capital, Reykjavík, could be affected, as well as some power lines, he added.

Pálmadóttir points out that these models do not take into account possible dangerous gases that could be emitted by a volcanic eruption.

The specter of a major eruption is reminiscent of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, which caused one of the largest air traffic disruptions in the world since World War II. But Pálmadóttir says it would be unlikely that a similar ash plume in the current situation.

Þórðarson adds that “the composition of the magma here is very different, the intensity of the explosive activity would be significantly lower.”

On Wednesday afternoon, a quake near Keilir volcano, just 20 miles south of the capital, prompted authorities to ban traffic in the area. On its website, the Icelandic MET office says a similar activity had previously preceded the eruptions.

The image from February 27, 2021 shows a natural risk specialist at the Icelandic Meteorological Office in Reykjavík, who is examining the situation on the Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland.

Víðir Reynisson, chief superintendent of Iceland’s Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management, told a news conference on Wednesday that the eruption was “more likely than not” in the next few hours. It would be the first in the area since the 12th century.

For now, residents are waiting for signs of eruption, some with emotion and others with anxiety. Víkurfréttir, a local news service, has installed a video camera pointing at Keilir, which it will start broadcasting live if an eruption begins.

In the last 24 hours, the great earthquakes that were felt in the previous days have diminished greatly, but the current calm may not last long. “It’s definitely not over,” Pálmadóttir says.

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