It is fitting that in a year when the fates of the playoffs of several NFL teams will be decided in the final game of the season, the MVP race will culminate in an exciting fashion with end-of-year heroics that can finally define who leaves with the prestigious award.
And entering week 17, there is a new favorite to win the MVP. Our group of nine analysts voted the top ten players in the MVP race so far, and then we used these nine sets of rankings to determine our top five overall candidates, using the Heisman Trophy scale for each classification. Based on the vote for this final round, we agree with the general consensus around the league that this is a pitch between Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. But six of our panelists place the Packers quarterback in No. 1 spot.
The 2020 MVP will likely be decided between two of the best quarterbacks in the league, but there are a handful of others who made a compelling case. Here’s a look at our final MVP ranking.
Note: Our group includes Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Courtney Cronin, Jeremy Fowler, Dan Graziano, Mina Kimes, Jason Reid, Kevin Seifert and Field Yates. Odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
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Top five | It’s just lost
2020 statistics: 4,059 passing yards, 44 TDs, 5 interceptions (plus 145 running yards and 3 running TDs) in 15 games
Votes first: 6 of 9 | Odds of winning MVP: -260
Rodgers went from being warned after the Packers drafted Jordan Love in April to being the leader of the MVP eight months later. The Green Bay quarterback has been torn apart since week 12, throwing at least three touchdowns in four of the Packers ’last five wins. Rodgers is now on his way to securing his third MVP award after a Sunday in a dominant prime time performance against Tennessee, where he earned his defining victory of the season (four touchdowns). It was also his 13th game this season with a score of more than 100 passes, which is tied in most games in a single season in the Super Bowl era, a success he also achieved the first time he was named the most valuable player in the league in 2011.
Rodgers has managed to do more things with fewer weapons around him, leading the league in touchdown passes (44) and passing score (119.4), finishing second in finishing percentage (70.3%) and sitting fifth in passing gardens. With one more win against Chicago in Week 17, the Packers will close out the NFC’s top spot and a first-round goodbye. If Rodgers has not already established himself as an MVP, what he will do is help the Packers achieve that feat.
While Muhammad may be the most valuable player in the league overall and the face of the NFL, Rodgers is the most critical part of his team’s success. That’s why he ends this season as a likely MVP.
2020 statistics: 4,740 passing yards, 38 TDs, 6 interceptions (plus 308 running yards and 2 running TDs) in 15 games
Votes first: 3 of 9 | Odds of winning MVP: +210
While Muhammad has been fantastic at the Chiefs quarterback with a 14-1 record, there aren’t too many categories in which Rodgers has surpassed the reigning Super Bowl champion. Simply put, the Packers quarterback has outscored Muhammad along the stretch and a week off for the Chiefs ’QBs against the Falcons, along with the fact that Rodgers exploded on Sunday Night Football, may be the key to the coffin. Muhammad’s three interceptions against Miami during week 14 don’t help his case either. Nor did his low 5.4-yard run per attempt against the Saints.
The Kansas City QB should dominate the Chiefs regular season finale against the Chargers to possibly win first place, but it looks like coach Andy Reid is bent over to rest his starters before watching a replay of a title. next month. Of course, none of this means that the 25-year-old isn’t tremendous, amazing, or any other adjective that can be used to describe his play in 2020. Muhammad leads the NFL in steps and has routinely kicked -scratches , miraculous plays that leave the rest of the league admired for their talents. Rodgers just got a little better this season.
2020 statistics: 4,320 passing yards, 34 TDs, 9 interceptions (plus 418 running yards and 8 running TDs) in 15 games
Top five votes: 9 of 9 | Odds of winning MVP: +1200
According to ESPN Stats & Information, no quarterback has experienced a larger increase in total QBR from 2019 (49.4) to 2020 (81.6) than Allen. He has helped the Bills establish supremacy in the AFC East with their first division title since 1995 and the Patriots ’first season in 20 years.
Allen is likely to be too far behind Rodgers and Muhammad to win the MVP, but he is no less deserving of participating in the conversation after his remarkable change, completing 68% of his passes for more than 4,000 yards and helping Buffalo to get their wins in a single season. since 1993. Allen put an exclamation point in his fantastic 2020 by throwing 320 yards and four touchdowns in a prime time win over the Patriots, earning him his eighth 300-yard game of the season. His 34 passing touchdowns also set a new franchise record in a single season.
2020 statistics: 1,777 running yards, 15 TDs (plus 114 receiving yards) in 15 games
Top five votes: 5 of 9 | Odds of winning MVP: +5000
Henry is closing out his second consecutive title and is 223 yards away from becoming the eighth player to join the prestigious 2,000-yard competition club. In December he averaged 5.9 yards per bag, the highest in NFL history among players with at least 300 rushing attempts. And what is perhaps most impressive is that, despite his workload, Henry has only upset once this season.
The Titans are 10-5 with a chance to close out the AFC South and a playoff bid due to the command that Henry has taken almost every game he has played in 2020. He has at least 75 running yards in 12 of his 15 games , and just ran once for less than 60.
2020 statistics: 4,031 passing yards, 38 TDs, 13 interceptions (plus 484 running yards and 2 running TDs) in 15 games
Top five votes: 5 of 9 | Odds of winning MVP: +10000
Wilson didn’t exactly return to his first-season MVP form to beat the Rams and capture the NFC West, but he didn’t let Aaron Donald destroy the Seahawks ’game plan and has played well enough to stay in the conversation. . Seattle’s defense has put Wilson in some difficult situations, in which he has had to pull off late victories, and this must be taken into account when assessing the burden he has been asked to carry in 2020. What hurts his candidacy the most, however, are his 13 interceptions, tied in the third quarter of the NFL.
It’s just lost
Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams: Donald went out of his way to keep Wilson uncomfortable in week 16, getting eight pressures and a sack. His 13.5 sacks take second place to TJ Watt (15), the only player who may be hampering Donald’s third defensive player of the year award since 2017. Donald is one of the best defenders in the league and the anchor of a Rams. defense that ranks the top three in efficiency.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints: Henry has all the love, but don’t forget the season Kamara has put together, with 1,688 yards of the fight (third) and 21 TDs in total (six more than the Titans ’MVP candidate). Without three of their top four receivers, the Saints ran everything for Kamara in a Christmas Day victory and, boy, delivered. Kamara rushed to get six TDs against Minnesota, tying the NFL game record. And in the process, he set the New Orleans franchise record in touchdowns in one season.
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Currently, he has a 150-1 chance of winning MVP, Brady has already met one of the high expectations he had ahead of him when he scored with Tampa Bay in March. For the first time since 2007, the Bucs are tied for the playoffs after Brady threw four touchdowns and set a 348-yard high in the first half of the race in a Lions loss. After hitting a wall in November and questions about the viability of the Bucs offense in the postseason, Brady corrected the boat and will have his team play in January.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs of Kansas City: In helping Kansas City close the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs in Week 16, Kelce grabbed seven passes for 98 yards. It is the first tight end to have two seasons of 100 catches, and set the garden record for a single season in a tight end with 1,467 in 15 games.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are in an offensive fall with their season on the line and may lose the playoffs if Murray (leg injury) can’t go to week 17. He’ll likely become the first player to throw for 4,000 yards and rush per 1,000, but his impact on Arizona’s success, especially with his feet, has been felt throughout 2020. The Cardinals are 0-5 when Murray runs seven or fewer times in a game and 8-2 when running eight or more times.
Also receiving votes
These players received at least one of the top ten votes from our nine experts. Note that in most cases these votes fell outside the top five.
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Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
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Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans
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TJ Watt, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers
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In front of Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
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Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings
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Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
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DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals
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Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans
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Jalen Ramsey, CB, Los Angeles Rams
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Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
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Xavien Howard, CB, Miami Dolphins