The New York Knicks are in an interesting place before the trade deadline of 2021. They have more maximum space ($ 15.7 million) than any other team, which gives them the opportunity to add substantial salaries in a trade without having to send any back. In addition to them, the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder are both teams in a similar position thanks to their big commercial exceptions.
Upon entering the season, it looked like New York could use the boundary space to store selections of additional drafts in exchange for hiring poorly. But with Tom Thibodeau’s squad currently seventh in the Eastern Conference, the Knicks are now a team that could use the deadline to increase their chances of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2013.
Should New York approach the deadline as an opportunity to update the list over the next two months? Or is it better for the Knicks to adhere to a long-term construction plan around All-Star Julius Randle, sophomore RJ Barrett, center Mitchell Robinson and promising rookie Immanuel Quickley?
ESPN NBA analysts Bobby Marks and Kevin Pelton debate how New York should approach the trade deadline.
What is the value of the Knicks cover space?
Bobby: The Knicks are sitting in pole position on the deadline with their cap on. How they use that $ 15.7 million will depend on whether they want to acquire players, change players, or a combination of both.
New York can act as a third team in a trade to recoup unwanted wages, something only teams with large commercial exceptions (Oklahoma City, for example) could do. For example, any team interested in the Cleveland Cavaliers center, Andre Drummond, and his $ 28.7 million salary, would probably have to send three to four players to make the money work. Due to the restrictions on the roster (maximum 15 players), Cleveland would recruit New York as a third team to reclaim one or two contracts, also pitching draft picks or perhaps a player who would fit the development timeline of New York.
The Knicks could also regain a contract and a draft pick if a team wants to remove a spot from the roster to sign a purchased player. A team like Philadelphia has 15 players hired and could replace Terrance Ferguson along with a second-round pick in New York to open a spot on the roster. The Knicks, however, also have 15 players hired and would have to eat the salary of a player like Austin Rivers for that to work.
Earlier business terms have seen luxury tax teams change players for the main purpose of saving money. The Warriors could change Kelly Oubre Jr.’s $ 14.37 million contract. and save about $ 70 million in taxes, though that number is likely to drop after the league calculates the post-pandemic success of basketball-related revenue this season.
One thing to keep in mind is that this is not a use or loss scenario for New York. While the maximum space does not reach the 2021-22 season, the Knicks can use their room until the start of the new 2021-2022 league year, which will likely begin in early August.
Kevin, with New York, is currently in the top six, isn’t it important that this team stays in accumulation mode?
Projection of the finish of the Knicks
Kevin: In addition to the Knicks having played so far this season, the odds are still a big playoff. In terms of point difference, New York ranks fifth out of eight teams separated by four games in the Eastern Conference ranking from fourth to 11th. The Knicks also have the eighth toughest schedule in the NBA according to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI). As a result, BPI-based projections still give New York only a 17.4% chance of reaching the playoffs. (The FiveThirtyEight model is a little more optimistic, giving the Knicks a 30% chance).
Because the Orient is so open and even a trip to the play-in tournament would be a high point for the franchise in the post-Carmelo Anthony era, I think it’s reasonable for New York to be in acquisition mode. . But with a bench that has already proven to be surprisingly deep, I’d rather use the maximum space to take on a bad contract rather than try to chase a short-term upgrade following the lines of New Orleans Pelicans guard JJ Redick.
Is there any way for the Knicks to achieve both goals, either by splitting their cap or by hiring a long-term contract?
Options for the Knicks
Bobby: As I mentioned earlier, if Philadelphia wants to open a roster spot, New York should be at the top of the line for a player like Terrance Ferguson or Vincent Poirier, who will be restricted free agents this summer. The same applies if Dallas wants to create additional limit flexibility in 2021-22 by moving Dwight Powell, who is to be paid $ 11.1 million in 2021-22 and $ 11.1 million in 2022-23 . If the Knicks could acquire several second-round picks or even get the Mavericks to eliminate peak protection (the top ten) for the first they owe in New York in 2023, it would be worth reducing the maximum space (from $ 45 million to $ 34 million in 2021). 22). The 2021 free agent class is, at best, average, and New York would be smart to follow the same plan this past November (one-year free agent contracts) and bet on any acquisition at long term.
Currently, the Knicks do not have any open positions, but they could easily give up Ignas Brazdeikis (team option for 2021-22, played 7 minutes this season) or Austin Rivers (contract not guaranteed in 2021-22 and 2022-23, I haven’t played since February 13) to create space if they want to get a contract back that a team wants to eliminate.
Kevin, where you would draw the line in the sand when it comes to the availability of the five contracts that expire the Knicks (Derrick Rose, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock) and their two old lottery collections (Kevin Knox and Frank Ntilikina)? I know you would go in the direction of using maximum space to recover defective contracts, but what about collecting additional selections for your pending free agents?
Kevin: I think I’m a little more willing than you to encourage New York to look for a place for the playoffs this year. In the long run, it would probably be advisable to meet Rose again to gain courage and charge her impending free agents. But this is the most exciting time to be a fan of the Knicks in recent years, so even if I want people to be realistic about the possibility of the team falling into the standings, I find it overly fashionable.
Payton would be an exception to this rule. If New York achieves something for him, it would make sense to move on. The Knicks have gone 4-1 in the five games Payton has recently lost even though Rose has been out of training for the past two (including a 26-point loss to San Antonio).
He would also be willing to move Knox and Ntilikina if other teams value them more as their draft positions than their current places outside the New York rotation. In his fourth season, Ntilikina has yet to show the offensive ribs to project himself as more than a fourth guard. And while Knox’s 40% 3-point shot on a limited sample (75 attempts) is encouraging, the rest of his game has stalled.
Let’s end it with a look at this summer. Bobby, you mentioned that the Knicks project will have $ 45 million in boundary space in a weak market. How should they think about using it in addition to recovering long-term contracts before the deadline?
The Knicks Summer of 2021 and beyond
Bobby: The days of the New York ranking in the top four of future power rankings seem to be over. The Knicks are well stocked for the offseason, with a $ 45 million projection in the room, two first-round picks (his own and the Mavericks’) and a second from Detroit (which equals a late first). ) to add to his Barrett and Randle foundation.
Unfortunately, the main unrestricted free agents (LeBron James, Paul George, Rudy Gobert and Giannis Antetokounmpo) signed overtime before the season began. This leaves New York with a group of players ranging from Kyle Lowry, Dennis Schroder, Victor Oladipo, DeMar DeRozan, Evan Fournier and restricted free agent Lonzo Ball.
The first order of business is to decide what to do with Mitchell Robinson’s $ 1.8 million team option. If they exercise the option, Robinson will become an unrestricted free agent in 2022, so to protect himself in the long run, the smartest thing is to turn down the option and give Robinson a qualifying offer. This would make him a restricted free agent, and because of his low limitation of $ 2.1 million, New York can first use the boundary space and then turn around to sign it.
They also have the decision to offer Randle an extension of up to four years and $ 106 million. With Randle playing as an All-Star, I’m inclined to believe the striker will pass on that kind of number and wait until he’s free agent in 2022 to collect.
I’d rather stick with the short-term plan: sign your own free agents (Burks, Noel and Bullock) on a two-year contract with a team option in the second year, or see if a player like Lowry bites a one year, a $ 25 million contract. Doug McDermott intrigues me with a high salary the first year, but with flexibility the second year.
I know this season’s safe approach isn’t appealing, but if New York can play on hold, it’ll be able to land two top-of-the-line free agents in 2022 or take advantage when the next disgruntled All-Star wants. to go out. The 2022 free agent class could consist of All-Stars Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal, Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Kevin Durant and Zach LaVine. Unlike the low season of 2019, when Durant and Irving were lost, there is a solid foundation (similar to where Brooklyn was then) to attract franchised players.
Kevin, what do you think about what direction New York is going this low season?
Kevin: We’re about to do what the Knicks do it should do. Even if the 2022 free agent class dries up the way we’ve seen with this year’s long-awaited free agency, it’ll be worth it to maintain flexibility as long as New York has several young players in novelty contracts. If nothing else, short-term offers will be easier to include as a matching salary in case a star is available through the trade.
Of course, Knicks ’story is full of examples of teams that overreact to prove success and abandon long-term plans. On March 25 we will have a better idea of whether the team’s new president, Leon Rose, can hold the line and see through a plan that has run well so far.