Circling the Earth 16 times a day, 250 miles above, space stations are among humanity’s most impressive achievements. The International Space Station (ISS) is a partnership between NASA and Roscosmos of Russia, with contributions from the United States from Canada, Japan, Europe and other countries. Its future is unclear, however, and depends on the decisions that will be made this year.
About 75 percent of ISS costs are borne by the United States at an annual cost of $ 3,000 to $ 4 billion. Russia launched the first ISS components in 1998 and in 2010 the ISS went live. The plan was for the ISS to last 15 to 20 years, at which time it would be replaced. It didn’t have to be that way.
The ISS cost more than $ 150 billion, five times the combined budgets of NASA and Roscosmos, so replacing it would be a huge undertaking, probably stifling funding for Earth observation, human visits to the Moon or Mars or deep space exploration. The Trump administration’s “Artemis” response was to transfer government space orbiting space stations to the private sector and focus government spending on a lunar orbiting space station and a human landing on the moon. With several countries already agreeing to invest in the US lunar space station, it’s hard to see how those countries would also invest in a $ 100 billion replacement ISS. Therefore, unless the Artemis program is delayed, the financial burden of a new ISS would fall on the US
Its component design has made it easier to extend the life of the ISS, making it easier to remove worn parts, such as solar panels. Consequently, NASA, Roscosmos and its international partners agreed to keep it operational until 2028 (8 to 10 years longer than its useful life) and perhaps until 2030.
The ISS is now 20 years old and at this age we should be prepared for surprises: when a slow air leak was discovered, an astronaut initially covered it with his finger and then taped it. adhesive. It’s not the only time they keep air at the station with duct tape and it’s unlikely to be the last breakdown before 2030, to say nothing of the risk of a garbage collision. If there is to be a comparable spare for the ISS in 2030, initial work should begin in 2021. If replacement work does not begin in 2021, the chances of a comparable station being in service by 2028/30 are reduced. . But there is more.
The ISS is about to get a huge boost in advertising: this year it is planned to shoot parts of two great films there. Universal Studios and NASA announced that a $ 200 million Tom Cruise thriller would be filmed in part on the ISS, and Channel One and Roscosmos of Russia announced that they would also film one. Soon, millions of people will be impressed by enchanted scenes aboard the ISS.
Although Roscosmos has agreed to continue the ISS until 2028/30, it indicated that if the US would close the ISS segments of America, Russia would separate the segments from Russia and use them as an autonomous or associated Russian space station. No one in Russia has forgotten that the first space stations were Russian or that the Mir Space Station operated for 14 years before the ISS. There remains the possibility of a space station associated with Russia.
Strong opposition to U.S. defense interests has hampered space cooperation between the United States and China, leading to a 2011 law effectively banning it. Not surprisingly, China has conducted a space program without involvement in the ISS. This includes satellites, lunar and planetary missions, and from 2011, China’s own space stations, Tiangong 1 and 2. In 2021, China will begin construction of Tiangong 3, a multimodule station that is beginning to look like the ISS. . It should be operational by 2022, include European and other astronauts, and remain operational long after the ISS.
Assuming the U.S. does not build an ISS replacement, the main U.S. strategy will continue to replace the ISS with private space stations. Several American companies have already started work, although most use the ISS as a foundation.
The main American business building its own station is privately owned Axiom Space, which outsources launches to companies such as Space X and module construction to Thales Alenia Corp. “Axiom Station” will be a 3-module space station, initially connected to the ISS before separating in late 2020. Axiom’s plan is to use one module for operations, another for experiments / manufacturing and the third as a luxury resort. Last year, NASA awarded Axiom $ 140 million to help it build its first module. Axiom will host Universal Studios and Tom Cruise this year and send 3 space tourists, who paid $ 55 million each, for a week aboard the ISS in 2022.
Other companies are lagging behind, including Sierra Nevada Corp., Nano Racks and Bigelow.
Among the most important recent developments in US space policy was the formation of the United States Space Force (USSF). One of its main goals is to protect American space assets and it is hard to imagine that the USSF leadership would not consider a military space station. Although NASA has long cooperated with the military and if the U.S. military is among the largest owners of satellites, no manned military space station has been proposed in the United States since the 1960s. .
Last year, the Defense Innovation Unit awarded a contract to Sierra Nevada to build an unmanned orbital site that could accommodate a military crew. The company would use its planned cargo vehicle as a platform from which to build an advanced military post. The initial flight of the cargo vehicle to the ISS, coupled with the Sierra Nevada space plane, is scheduled for 2021. This will obviously lay the groundwork for the conversion of the vehicle to a military space station.
So, this year the construction of a new Chinese space station and a US business space station will begin; the Pentagon will begin searching for its first space station, and perhaps we will know more about any future Russian space station. More importantly, the Biden administration will have decided whether there will be a replacement for the ISS, mainly because, given the long delivery deadlines, no decision in 2021 is a decision.
Roger cochetti provides consulting and advisory services in Washington, DC. He was a senior executive at Communications Satellite Corporation (COMSAT) from 1981 to 1994. He also directed public Internet policy for IBM from 1994 to 2000 and later served as senior vice president and CEO of IBM. policies for VeriSign and CompTIA Group Policy Director. He served on the State Department’s advisory committee on international communications and information policy during the Bush and Obama administrations, testified several times on Internet policy issues, and served on advisory committees to the FTC and various UN agencies. He is the author of the Mobile Satellite Communications Manual.