1. Introduction
The United States is a disaster right now. Well, maybe I should say so cold mess. Arctic air has invaded everything but Florida and the southwestern desert. A powerful winter storm in the middle of the country has sparked warnings ranging from the Canadian border in Washington to the Mexican border in Texas. At least 33 of the 48 contiguous states have some kind of winter warning, surveillance or advice on Saturday.
And that includes New Jersey, of course. As we’ve discussed all week, our next storm system is no incredibly powerful or well organized. And it definitely won’t be a big snowfall for New Jersey. But it will reach a specific temperature profile conducive to an icy mix of sleet and icy rain. And even with a light glaze of ice is enough for the conditions to be very slippery and treacherous.
We also continue to follow two more storm systems with the goal of New Jersey next week. There have been some interesting news in the latest versions of the model.
2.) Timing
-To start… The precipitation of the winter mixture will arrive from southwest to northeast between Saturday in the late morning (10 am) and early afternoon (2 pm)
“Brown …” The heaviest rainfall and the greatest threat to frost will be from Saturday afternoon (15:00) to the afternoon (22:00)
-Final … Unpleasant weather conditions should gradually improve on Sunday morning (from 6:00 to noon)
3.) Accumulations
“Snow …” Up to a possible inch (though unlikely), especially at the northern end.
“Ice cream …” About a tenth of an inch for most of the state. Less at the northern end and along the immediate coast.
-It rains … It can rain up to 0.30 “of flat rain, especially on the immediate coast.
4.) Impacts
Ice is a nasty business. In particular, freezing the rain would be the worst case scenario. Remember that it looks, smells, and has a taste of regular liquid rain until it touches a freezing surface. It is then instantly frozen in solid ice. Instant skating rink.
In the event of snow and / or frost, untreated surfaces will become very slippery very quickly, increasing the likelihood of vehicle accidents and slip and fall injuries. Vehicles embedded in an ice enamel can even be difficult to get into. Strong ice can drop branches, trees, and power lines, increasing the risk of power outages throughout the weekend.
No matter what falls from the sky, it will be an inclement and unpleasant period of time. It’s hard to give advice on “safe” or “good” times to travel, as conditions can vary from town to town and even minute to minute. Seriously, if you don’t need to be away from home, it’s a good day to stay home and stay well toasted warm and dry.
Wind and coast floods are no worries this weekend, I’m glad to say.
5.) Advice
A winter weather warning has been issued for 17 New Jersey counties, due to the threat of rain and frost this weekend.
“From Saturday at eight in the morning to eight on Sunday …” Cape May, Cumberland and Salem counties.
—Sunday at 1 p.m., Sunday at 10 a.m. … Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Somerset and Union counties.
6.) The next storm
The same system of storms that causes dangerous wind warming and even a foot of snow on the southern plains will lead us towards the beginning of next week. It looks like we may be facing a small chunk of precursor energy on Monday, before the main event between Monday night and the first half of Tuesday.
Now there is the interesting. Models have broken the track of storms further west (inland) and north. This not only limits the coastal influence of the storm, but also puts New Jersey on the warm side of the storm. This means that it now seems to be the predominant type of precipitation only flat rain.
I wouldn’t hang my hat on that forecast, as things could go back to the cold part. (Previous runs have suggested a total of double-digit snowfall and a half-inch of ice accretion in New Jersey).
In any case, it is a sign that this forecast is still unreliable and quite complicated. Remember, chaos theory dictates that the weather prediction game works best when we do it from one storm at a time. Next time we’ll have it better once the weekend ice storm clears.
7.) The next storm
The grand finale of this hyperactive time period is still scheduled for the end of next week, in the time frame from Thursday to Friday.
And guess what. Like Tuesday’s storm, it tends to the northwest and is therefore rainier. However, the consensus of the current model does paint a bit of snow accumulation at first. And, with 5 days left for the first flakes / drops, it can definitely change again.
I am very excited that from next weekend we will break the constant onslaught of significant storm systems. We could even see a brief (big) warm-up at the end of next week. However, if you are looking for a longer lasting sustained warm-up, you will unfortunately have to wait until March.
Stay warm, be smart, and be safe this weekend. Unless “things” really get in the way when the ice storm arrives, my next weather blog update will arrive on Sunday morning.
Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist at Townsquare Media, New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter to get the latest weather forecasts and updates in real time.