8 things to know about NJ nor’easter on Sunday

3.) Where is the snow bullseye?

The keys to the success of this forecast are:
1.) Who will get a winter mix or direct rain and how long will it last?
2.) Who will see the heaviest snowflakes?

My most recent snow map (above) is my estimate of how these two factors will develop.

“The sweet spot …” It looks like the NJ Turnpike runner crossing the interior of southern and central New Jersey will see the heaviest snowfall and the accumulation of 4 to 6 inches more snow. (Backstage, I debated the labeling of this area 4-8 “ or even a straight line ~ 6 “. I wouldn’t rule out 8 “of snow at some points – there are even more remote scenarios of up to 10” or 12 “, but I’m thinking the mix problem and band uncertainty make 6” a much more likely estimate to extended snowfall.)

“Too warm on the coast …” While our initial predictions about snow seemed hopeful to snow lovers along the Jersey shore, it’s now pretty clear that rain and the winter mix will end those winter dreams. I hope the green area on the map sees mostly rain and / or loose mix from the start until noon on Sunday, without losing most of the “weight” of the storm. There is a chance of all the snow in the afternoon, with possible limited accumulations given the low intensity of snowfall and wet terrain at that time.

“North Jersey too far …” The far north of New Jersey will be spared the worst of this storm of coasters. You will still see some snow, on the order of 2 to 4 inches. But the heaviest snow should remain in the south, not a guarantee, but it is where the consensus of the model is pointed out.

4.) What about the rocking factor?

There is no complete forecast without a confidence measure, a statement of how “blocked” the projected scenario is.

In that case, I would say trust is high that we will see moderate to heavy snow accumulations in much of New Jersey. The storm would have to move a lot to make it a complete failure.

Confidence is medium that the snow totals will reflect the map I drew above. If heavy snow bands at mesescale settle 25 miles in either direction, it will obviously affect who sees more snow. If temperatures (at the surface or at altitude) are a few degrees below expectations, we could see more (or less) mixing in coastal areas.

So the forecast is clearer than it had been, for sure. And the fact is that widespread 6-inch snow will always lead to significant winter impacts. But let us also remember that this forecast remains very sensitive to the exact track of the storm, which is still the object of movements.

5.) What warnings and warnings have been issued?

The National Meteorological Service has issued a Winter storm warning for the following schedules and counties:
—4 a.m. Sunday to 7 p.m. Sunday … northwest of Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, west of Monmouth, Morris, Salem and Somerset counties.
—Sunday at 6 a.m. until 9 a.m. Sunday … Counties of Bergen, Essex, Hudson, East Passaic and Union.

A less serious, less urgent and less dangerous person Winter weather advice is published for:
—4 a.m. Sunday to 7 p.m. Sunday … Atlantic Counties, southeast Burlington, Cape May, Cumberland, Monmouth, Ocean, Sussex and Warren.
—Sunday at 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. Sunday … West Passaic County.

6.) Any flooding from the wind or the coast?

No.

Gusts of wind can approach 30 mph, especially after the storm, like the Arctic air, from the northwest.

The storm will move so fast that it will not have a chance to shake our ocean. Storm waves of a few centimeters should not cause coastal flooding problems. (Especially because our astronomical tide is relatively low at the moment, due to a waning crescent).

7.) What is the conclusion?

It’s going to snow. It is a storm system that moves quickly, in and out of about 12 hours. Expect early winter weather on Sunday morning until part of the afternoon. This snow will be heavy for a while, away from the coast. It is certainly suitable for most of the state. Probably pliable.

Displacement will be difficult during the height of the storm, due to low visibility and low traction. Hopefully the crews have enough time to clear the snow during the trips Monday morning. (Note that plowing operations will take much longer in areas with a foot of snow on the ground after Monday’s storm).

I suspect the affected schools would lean more toward a delayed opening situation (or virtual learning day), if any, rather than a direct closure of the “snow day”. (Sorry, kids.) For anyone who makes decisions to read it, you should make this call as recent as possible, according to your own local conditions and policies Sunday evening and / or Monday morning.

8.) What is next?

For the third weekend in a row, I’m going to walk into the weather center over the weekend. (‘It’s the season!) I look forward to presenting you with the latest forecasts before and during this winter storm, at the 14 stations that make up the Townsquare New Jersey weather network.