The biggest blizzard of the year targets the Northeast

It has been almost five years since New York City saw more than a foot of snow in a storm when Central Park recorded the largest blizzard with 27.5 inches in January 2016. That streak is likely to end in the middle of this week, with the New York metro area – or near it – bulging with more than a foot of snow.

It won’t be for New York. Most of the densely populated areas of the Northeast are aimed at a major Nor Easter with heavy snowfall. Some cities may receive more than half the snow in 24 hours.

For cities like Washington, D.C., Philadelphia and New York, a big Nor Easter seems like a long delay. This is because many of these cities experienced historically low snowfall last winter. The Big Apple measured only 4.8 inches last season – the fourth lowest snowfall season. The lowest snowfall ever recorded in New York City came in the 1972-73 season, when the city saw only 2.8 inches.

Perspective, in a normal year, Central Park raises 25 inches of snow, and the 1995-96 snowfall season delivered 75.6 inches.

On Sunday morning, the parent storm, which was finally 3,000 miles northeast, was sloping northwest of the Pacific with heavy mountain snow in Washington State and Oregon.

Before it reaches the east coast, it crosses the entire United States, swims through the Rockies in a southeasterly direction, and pours heavy snow on the mountains. On Tuesday, the Rockies were plundered by moisture, bringing the storm only a light snowfall to the southern plains around Oklahoma. But by Wednesday, thanks to a shot in the arm of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will begin to spin again.

As the Gulf Moisture waits for cool air to sit in Kentucky, snow will begin to fly over the Appalachians early Wednesday morning, increasing intensity and coverage. Once the storm crosses the mountains, the humidity of the Atlantic Ocean will enter the system and reach Washington, DC, Philadelphia and New York City from early morning until late afternoon on Wednesday afternoon with heavy snowfall in northern Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania.

Heavy snowfall in the northwest of I-95 Corridor. In the country’s capital, it appears to be raining as a mixed bag of snow, sleet and rain. In Philadelphia, it should be mainly snow and ice. Points from New York City to Boston and northwest, which should be essentially a blizzard. The heaviest snowfall rates will start late Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, accumulating 2 inches of points per hour.

While it is still too early to specify the details, there is great hope that when things are forced to change between now and the middle, a pile of huge snow will pile up. The picture below is a general idea of ​​where heavy snow might fall, but this will change shortly before the event. Hartford, Providence and Boston are likely to be bullseye.

What sets this system apart from others over the past few years is the availability of cool air. As the storm moves, temperatures in the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and New England will be in the 20s. Normally, the southeastern wind of a storm is sufficient to expel that cold wind, but this time it is unlikely to happen. This is because a strong, cold high-pressure system in southern Canada showed no signs of developing, and as a result of the atmospheric volume, like a traffic jam, it was trapped in a stream near Greenland. It should be locked to cool air.

Support for this system by all trusted computer models sets this system apart from others. Usually there is not so much hope in a blizzard, four or five days ahead of time. But since all models, more or less, show the same evolution and the same location of severe snow, it is a rare opportunity to provide this reliable early warning.

That said, details will change as the storm approaches. By Monday night or Tuesday morning, the picture and details will be even clearer.