A new online calculator allows you to assess the risk of dying from Covid-19. The tool not only hopes to satisfy a certain morbid curiosity about the ongoing pandemic; researchers say their project could help identify vulnerable people and could even be used to inform decisions about who gets the vaccine first.
Scientists at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health developed the calculator using algorithms to sort large amounts of data into the different sociodemographic factors and pre-existing health conditions affecting the likelihood of dying from Covid-19. To guide the estimate, it also incorporates weekly updated information on different percentages of cases in U.S. locations.
The calculator – is located here – was recently presented in a new study published in the journal Nature medicine. After connecting some simple details about your lifestyle and health, you can get an informed view of your risk of mortality from Covid-19 both individually and in the community.
Like many diseases, it is clear that Covid-19 affects people differently. Young children, for example, appear to be relatively close low risk of disease, with most children experiencing mild or asymptomatic illnesses. On the other hand, it is known that there are people of Asian or black ethnicity an increased risk of death associated with Covid-19 compared to other groups. Equally, it is well established that men are he is more likely to fall seriously ill and die from the infection compared to women.
The calculator takes into account these many different factors and uses an algorithm to assess the risk of Covid-19 for a person. In addition, the tool can also be used to define the level of risk of a group, be it a neighborhood, a particular community, a corporation, or a university.
“People can broadly understand that with a pre-existing condition, such as obesity or diabetes, for example, they have a higher risk, but with our calculator they should be able to understand their risk of a way that takes into account several factors, “Professor Nilanjan Chatterjee, lead author of the study and Bloomberg’s distinguished professor of biostatistics and genetic epidemiology, said in a statement.
Researchers have previously worked on models that sought to assess the risks of noncommunicable diseases, such as cancer, based on patients ’backgrounds. When the pandemic hit earlier this year, its focus quickly shifted to the development of a similar tool for Covid-19. The team hopes its tool can be useful to authorities looking for who should prioritize early Covid-19 vaccines by revealing individuals and risk groups.
“Our calculator represents a more quantitative approach and should complement other proposed qualitative guidelines, such as those from the National Academy of Sciences and Medicine, to determine individual and community risks and assign vaccines,” Chatterjee explained.