The latest USSW COVID-19 forecast shows that while hospitalizations for the virus are at an all-time high in DFW, the trajectory of new cases in Dallas and Tarrant counties could be very different.
Researchers at the University of Texas Southwest Medical Center in Dallas on Tuesday released their latest forecast model for COVID-19, which predicted that new daily infections in Dallas County are expected to decrease with the continuation of application of current prevention measures. In Tarrant County, however, daily infections are expected to increase significantly under the same conditions.
“The spread of the infection is not uniform across the North Texas region and the trajectories of Dallas and Tarrant counties have diverged,” UTSW said in the report. (found at the bottom of this page). “While Dallas County hospitalizations are expected to remain flat at their current high levels until Christmas, Tarrant County hospitalizations are expected to grow another 20% over the same period of time.”
As of Tuesday, the Dallas County average of 7 days and 14 days of confirmed cases of COVID-19 is 1,493 and 1,415, per day, respectively. The USSW forecast for Christmas is approximately 1,400 new infections per day. UTSW expects hospitalizations in Dallas County, which have risen just 2% in the past two weeks, to reach 580-980 concurrent cases on Christmas Day.
The model predicts a different story in Tarrant County, however, where the average of 7 and 14 days of confirmed cases of COVID-19 is 1,153 and 1,234 cases per day, respectively, until Tuesday. The model (found at the bottom of this page) predicts that on Christmas Day, daily infections in Tarrant County could reach 2,400 daily. COVID-19 patient hospitalizations in the county, which have risen 11% in the past two weeks and totaled more than 900 on both Monday and Tuesday, are expected to be between 830 and 1,450 on December 25.
The UTSW model predicts that without an increase in attempts to flatten the curve, the trajectory of cases in Tarrant County will continue to increase.
With this in mind, UTSW urged those taking holiday plans around Christmas to follow common prevention measures that curb the spread of disease due to the high level of infections and hospitalizations in the area. Colder weather adds to the risk of infection pushing meetings indoors.
These common preventative measures include wearing masks, staying home as much as possible, physically distancing yourself while in public, and washing your hands frequently.
In its report, UTSW warns that “modeling is an iterative process with uncertainty inherent in its predictions. It facilitates planning and should not be the sole basis for policies or decisions to manage any emerging infection.” .
The latest UTSW model is created from actual patient data received from health departments, area hospitals, and Dallas and Tarrant County health systems through Dec. 11. They also recall that people arriving at the hospital were probably infected about two weeks ago. UTSW re-runs its models and perfects graphics whenever they receive new data.