For more than half a century, the conflict between Israel and the Arab nations around it has been a defining feature of the Middle East, producing periodic wars, lost opportunities for trade, and countless hours of fruitless diplomacy. The fracture is far from resolved. However, there has been a change. Israel has made peace deals four Arab countries later this year, stressing that it is now Iran – instead of Israel – the common enemy that unites many Arab rulers.
1. Why were the new agreements a big problem?
Egypt and Jordan normalized relations with Israel a 1979 i 1994, respectively, but other Arab nations said for years that they did retain recognition of the Jewish state pending the formation of a independent country for the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, two territories that Israel conquered in a 1967 war. Some Arab states developed covert relations with Israel, but it was extraordinary when one of them, the United Arab Emirates, agreed to formalize the ties in August. Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco followed, and Israeli officials predicted that Oman and Saudi Arabia would be next. The agreements telegraphed over Arab relations with Israel it is no longer tied to the Palestinian cause. And they clarified the growing focus of Arab leaders belonging to the Sunni branch of Islam to counter the rise of Persian Iran, whose people are mostly Shiite Muslims.
2. Why is Iran so suspicious?
Iran’s influence in the Middle East has grown significantly since 2003, when the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq wiped out its main enemy, the Sunni regime of President Saddam Hussein. Iranian leaders have used theirs control of militias drawn from the Shiite majority of the Iraqi population to shape the governments of Baghdad. In Syria, Iran appealed to the Iraqi militias themselves Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite militant group, to help preserve its only state ally, President Bashar al-Assad, from defeat in a civil war that began as a popular uprising in 2011. In Yemen, Iran supported Shiite rebels in their fight against forces backed by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in a war that erupted in 2015. The International Institute for Strategic Studies today claims the influence from Iran to Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen “a new normal, ”a concept unthinkable even for Tehran’s leaders.
3. What is the role of the US?
As of 2016, the U.S. under President Donald Trump adopted one a more aggressive approach to Iran, withdrawing from the nuclear deal had been reached by world powers in 2015. That deal had freed Iran from punishing economic sanctions in exchange for regaining its nuclear program. Under Trump, the United States also abandoned its stance on neutrality in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, relocating the U.S. embassy. in Jerusalem – claimed as capital by both parties, but controlled by Israel – and downplaying the goal of Jerusalem two-state solution, under which Israel and the Palestinians had to end their conflict by delimiting a new Palestinian state.
4. Are Iran and its enemies fighting directly?
From Iran and Iraq faced with each other the devastating human and economic costs of the 1980s, Iranian theocratic leaders have avoided direct conflict with the US and its allies in the region, a competition in which they would be dramatically outnumbered. Instead, the Islamic regime has become an expert in hybrid warfare. Over time, this has included the use of terrorist tactics and militias of representatives. The US has accused Iran of being behind recent attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf, US forces in Iraq and targets in Saudi Arabia, including a huge oil processing facility. The USA attacked in January 2020 and killed Qassem Soleimani, the general responsible for Iran’s foreign operations. Israel, meanwhile, has piloted numerous bombing missions against Hezbollah and Iranian targets in Syria. In cases where Iran does not deny its involvement, it says it protects its Shiites and allies from aggression by the United States, Israel or the Gulf.
Allied with Iran
Middle East militant groups connected with Iran
5. Apart from Syria and Iraq, are all Arab governments united against Iran?
No, Oman and Kuwait remain friendly with Iran, just as they do Qatar, with which it shares a gas field. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt cut diplomatic and transport links to Qatar in 2017, in part because they said it was too close to Tehran.
6. Where does this leave the Palestinians?
With diminished leverage and bad prospects. Palestinian leaders criticized the agreements with Israel for giving the country the benefits of peace without demanding that it relinquish control of the land it confiscated in 1967. The United Arab Emirates claims it helped the Palestinians as part of the his agreement getting Israel’s promise to freeze a plan to annex part of the West Bank, but for how long it is unclear.