Boris Johnson is faced with the choices that will be made in the coming hours to define his presidency: accept a trade agreement with the European Union or follow him alone.
It could hardly have come at a more difficult time. While struggling with its dilemma over the UK’s relationship with its closest and largest trading partner, its government is fighting a new highly contagious variant of the coronavirus that has prompted EU countries to impose travel bans and plunged much of England into an emergency closure.
There are only days left for the UK to leave the EU single market and customs union at 11pm London time on 31 December and the British government ruling out any extension of that deadline, it’s still unclear what direction Johnson will take after the blog refuses to offer more concessions over the weekend.
People close to the negotiations on both sides said there is a strong possibility that an agreement could be reached on Monday, but they acknowledge that there are still many chances that talks could collapse.
While both sides consider Christmas a natural deadline, EU and British officials do not even rule out being asked to return later in December to make a final push if necessary. EU officials said the question is not really time, but whether Johnson wants to opt for it or not.
“The obligation for the next few days is to close this negotiation, which can be done,” Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney told RTE Radio. “Countries like France, the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium and Ireland are unlikely to support a new offer because we have our own interests, as the UK has done.”
Johnson wants to extract concessions from the EU to reach a good deal to satisfy lawmakers in his own party whom he will trust to get approval of a deal. Several have been pushing for him to move away from the negotiations and many of these same MPs are also unhappy with the way he has handled the latest developments in the coronavirus crisis.
As Brexit uncertainty continued, Johnson was due to hold a meeting of the UK government’s emergency committee on Monday to discuss rising infections and the impact on international travel. Meanwhile, the pound fell 2.5% against the dollar during the worst day since the virus hit markets in March.
David Frost, the UK’s leading negotiator, and his team of about 25 people are in Brussels, where they are awaiting their latest orders alongside their EU Commission counterparts.
“Crucial moment”
“At this crucial time for negotiations between the EU and the UK, we continue to work hard with David Frost and his team,” Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, said on Sunday. “The EU remains committed to a fair, reciprocal and balanced agreement. We respect the sovereignty of the United Kingdom and we expect the same. “
The whole agreement, which would encompass a security relationship and co-operation agreements in several other areas, now depends almost entirely on reaching an agreement on the rights that EU vessels will have to fish in British waters.
The Johnson administration sees regaining control of UK waters as a matter of sovereignty, while European countries with large fishing industries are resisting any move by the EU to make concessions to reach an agreement.
Following discussions on Friday with member states, the Commission made an offer that would allow the block to lose around 25% of the current € 650 million ($ 735 million) of fish it catches annually in British waters. The UK rejected it and has been pushing for the EU to give up 60%, according to officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Therefore, the economic difference between the two parties is reduced to about 230 million euros in value of fish, a small amount in the context of their wider trade relationship. UK trade with France alone amounts to about € 53 billion a year.
Final offer?
The EU offer was widely seen as final, people close to the negotiations said. The bloc also offered to reduce the period of gradual introduction of the new agreements to six years, after initially wanting 10. The UK rejected the offer of six and has proposed only three years.
One person familiar with the British side of the negotiations said they remain unanswered basic questions about what the EU’s proposals mean for UK fishing communities.
Johnson on Monday received calls from Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon and London Mayor Sadiq Khan to extend the UK’s post-transition period beyond the end of the year to give more time to negotiations. This is something Johnson has ruled out earlier and the EU has said may be legally impossible.
The European Parliament, which has a veto on the whole agreement, warned that it will not be able to ratify any agreement in time for the end of the transition period on 31 December.
The EU may have to take the rare step of implementing any agreement provisionally before putting it to a vote in the new year, or the UK could face an off-bloc spell without a trade deal.
“We need more time,” Bernd Lange, chairman of the European Parliament’s international trade commission, told Bloomberg television on Monday. “We’re ready to be flexible, but the final word will be next year.”
If no trade agreement was reached, the UK would do business with its largest and closest trading partner, on the terms set by the World Trade Organization. This would mean that millions of businesses and consumers would face the cost and disruption of tariffs and quotas.
– With the assistance of Dara Doyle, Peter Flanagan, Alberto Nardelli and Maria Tadeo
(It adds a government extension that rules out the extension in the third paragraph)