For many Americans, New Year’s Eve came as a surprise: an American embassy besieged by protesters and seemingly in danger of falling into enemy hands.
But it’s 2020, not 1979. And it’s Baghdad, not Benghazi or Saigon.
Orchestrated by pro-Iranian militias, these protests focus on domestic politics in Iraq and a country divided between two allies competing for influence: Iran, Iraq’s powerful western neighbor, and its Shiite-majority nation. and the United States, linked to the fight against Islamic State and U.S. funds that helped defend the government and keep it afloat.
Since October, they have staged massive anti-government demonstrations across the country, protesting against corruption and Iranian influence, which confuse Iraqi politics. But Tuesday’s crowds were completely different: pro-Iran and pro-Shiite militias backed by Iran and angered by recent U.S. airstrikes.
Last Friday, a U.S. civilian contractor was shot dead against K1, an Iraqi base that houses U.S. troops outside of Kirkuk, northern Iraq. The attack, which wounded several Iraqi and other American troops, was blamed on a pro-Iranian militia called Kata’ib Hezbollah, or KH. Two days later, the U.S. military attacked and killed at least 25 members at five locations in Iraq and Syria.
Designated by the State Department in 2009 as a foreign terrorist organization, KH maintains close ties with the Iranian force Quds, an elite unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps working outside Iran conducting attacks and intelligence operations. unconventional license.
But while the United States considers KH a terrorist group, it is also a political force in Iraq that politicians need to appease and work with. The Iraqi prime minister’s office on Tuesday “condemned” the strikes in KH as an attack “on Iraqi military units,” a sign of how they are intertwined with the government.
The Trump administration said it was a defensive response and a strong signal to Iran to leave U.S. personnel alone, even through delegated forces. But these American strikes infuriated many Iraqi officials, those aligned with Iranian and Shiite militias. U.S. forces are in the country to train Iraqi troops and fight ISIS together, and saw U.S. strikes in KH on Iraqi territory as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.
“Following U.S. retaliation, the Iraqi government had to let the anger of KH’s local members spread publicly, appeasing both a key element of its political base and Tehran,” said retired Colonel Steve Ganyard. former Deputy Secretary of State and is now a contributor to ABC News.
Sending a message to Washington, several Iranian-backed political groups and militias, also known as Popular Mobilization Units, demonstrated Tuesday at protests at the U.S. embassy. Eyewitnesses said Iraqi security forces let them into the heavily fortified green zone, where the central government and many foreign embassies are located.
This contrasts with the violence used by the security forces themselves to keep anti-government protesters out in October and November, deploying live ammunition and sometimes killing protesters.
Tuesday’s crowds, which included militia leaders and Shiite politicians, did not breach the embassy grounds themselves, but did pass in front of an exterior wall, charging at the embassy security gates. , looking at U.S. security personnel in the face and smashing and setting fire to properties outside. .
How was this possible?
“Because it was planned,” Ganyard said. “Look at the general views of the protest. Carefully meeting the set limits … It was organized and had the approval of the Iraqi government.”
“The Iraqi government would never let Iranian representatives take the U.S. embassy,” he added. But they had to let them get far enough to let go of steam and dissipate some of the rage in those ranks.
However, Iran does not want things to go so far that the US has a reason to attack its personnel.
Instead, as he has done for months (since Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal and implemented a much tougher sanctions regime than any other), he is mocking the U.S.
First, there were attacks on oil tankers, then the downing of an American drone and the slowness of its commitments under the nuclear deal. Iran rose in September, with a massive attack on a Saudi oil facility and rocket attacks dispersed against targets in Iraq where U.S. troops are located.
Iranian leaders will continue to punch the United States to remove the heat, as the country’s economy collapses under intense US sanctions and its own citizens demonstrate in cities across the country, demanding economic opportunities, the end of corruption and the end of excursions abroad. .
The turmoil in Iraq and the scenes of smoke and fire outside the U.S. embassy (the American stamp stolen at the embassy doors) are a welcome distraction for Tehran from deep anger. of the Iraqis for their tentacles in their country.
But it will not last forever. Is the risk when it runs out, will Iran move too far with its next blow or will the US response spiral out of control?
Secretary of Defense Mark Esper authorized an infantry battalion of about 750 soldiers to deploy “immediately” in the Middle East, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Tuesday that North American personnel American stays there at the embassy, while members and supporters of Hezbollah of the Kata’ib began to set up tents and promised to send a new message: push legislation to drive out American forces.
The next chapter is not yet written, but one thing seems certain: Iraq will be left with the heavy bleeding.