Geographically speaking, Ireland is on the northwestern edge of the European Union. But when it comes to Brexit, it’s the focal point of the bloc: if Gibraltar’s relatively insignificant foreign territory falls outside the equation, the republic is the only member state with a land border with the UK.
The end of the Brexit transition period, during which the UK remained temporarily in EU trade structures after its formal exit from the bloc on 31 January, will bring about massive changes in trade and border traffic. And it is also likely to lead to serious problems that will affect Ireland more than any other EU member state.
It is not yet known whether there will be an agreement on future relations between the UK and the EU. Moreover, if there was an agreement, it would have to be translated into at least some of the 23 official languages of the blog and ratified by all 27 remaining member states by the end of the year.
However, the most important obstacle has been taken from the Irish point of view: Brussels and London have agreed on a Northern Ireland protocol that would work even if there was no agreement. This agreement denies controversial clauses in an act of the British internal market that would have deliberately violated the EU withdrawal treaty. However, it still depends on the approval of the British Parliament, which could decide not to accept the concession of the government of Boris Johnson during what has been a dramatic sprint until the end of negotiations with the EU.
Less consequences for Northern Ireland
The protocol moves the de facto customs border to the Irish Sea, so customs inspections will only be necessary for trade between Northern Ireland and the other countries that make up the UK. This avoids having a “hard” border with the Republic of Ireland; people and goods will be able to continue crossing the border without customs controls. This is particularly important for Dublin, because many items produced in the Republic of Ireland are shipped from Northern Ireland.
Northern Ireland Prime Minister Arlene Foster (right) and her aide, Michelle O’Neill, demand an agreement from Boris Johnson
For Northern Ireland, it means some of the worst fears will not be realized. The head of the regional government, Arlene Foster, of the Democratic Unionist Party (DPU), and her deputy, Michelle O’Neill, of the Republican Sinn Fein party, had written a joint letter to the European Commission in early November expressing concern because “a scenario without agreement can pose a” real threat to the continuity of food and other products for our market. “
Threat to the “land bridge”
The problem here is not the lack of container capacity: the pandemic-induced economic crisis means that relatively few goods are currently shipped. There will also be an additional ferry connection between Rosslare in Ireland and Dunkirk in France from 2 January.
“The real problem is those traders who have products with sensitive value and time,” says Tom Ferris of the Institute for International and European Affairs (IIEA), an Irish think tank. The fastest connection between Ireland and the rest of the EU passes through the south of Britain, with only two short ferry journeys required. This “land bridge” is used by about 150,000 trucks annually, according to a study by the Office for Maritime Development of Ireland (IMDO).
A bottleneck on the land bridge of the Port of Dover
Here, too, an agreement has been reached whereby goods in transit will not have to go through full customs procedures in the future. Ferris told DW that the deal was good as long as traffic flowed freely and there was no kind of chaos in the port of Dover that has been seen recently.
Otherwise, Ferris added, he could not really imagine the British authorities prioritizing Irish trucks in their customs controls “allowing green-marked trucks to pass red-marked trucks to reach ferries or the English Channel to reach in mainland ports. “
Logistics companies could therefore be forced to move the operations of this land bridge to longer and more expensive direct connections between Ireland and continental Europe.
The price of Brexit
Jessica Sargeant, a Brexit expert at the British Government Institute, believes the reorganization could cause major problems, especially in the first six months, mainly because some modalities are still unclear although there are only a few days left to end the transition.
Rosslare, in the south-east of Ireland, is already a central ferry center to mainland Europe
“There is also a problem of preparation. Not only is there this uncertainty, but companies are also devoting a lot of resources to finding out how to deal with COVID. There are still some companies where there are a lot of people who are pending … Sargeant says I have much less staff and logistics capacity to be able to deal with this.
Things will be more expensive for the people of Ireland, especially when tariffs are imposed on imports from the new year. If no trade agreement is reached between the United Kingdom and the EU, the two parties will trade in accordance with World Trade Organization rules. The Institute for Economic and Social Research in Ireland calculated in 2018 that a “hard” Brexit would increase the cost of living by between 2 and 3%. For an average household, this means additional annual costs of about $ 900 to $ 1,350 ($ 1,100 to $ 1,650).
Little danger to peace
Economic issues, in particular possible customs controls on the island, had fueled concern that Brexit could jeopardize the fragile peace achieved in the Northern Ireland conflict.
These concerns were exacerbated by the fact that Northern Ireland was without a regional government for three years due to the line between the two largest parties, the DUP and Sinn Fein. But earlier this year, the sides corrected their differences.
Tom Ferris points out the aforementioned letter from the two government leaders to the European Commission to show that a kind of cooperation was now taking place between the two parties and that a new row was unlikely.
The gates of Belfast’s “wall of peace”, which divides hostile neighborhoods, are closed every evening
In addition, the Northern Ireland Protocol guarantees free border traffic, one of the main conditions of the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, which is considered the cornerstone of peace on the island of Ireland after of decades of armed conflict. The resulting customs border in the Irish Sea is a blow especially to Northern Irish unionists, who want to connect the province as close as possible to Britain.
“To some extent, the damage has been done,” says Jessica Sargeant. He says many trade unionists feel betrayed by the British government for having agreed to the agreement and trade barriers between Britain and Northern Ireland. A “no agreement” scenario would reinforce that sentiment, but unionists will be dissatisfied in one way or another, she said.
A new hope: Joe Biden
The inauguration of Joe Biden as the new President of the United States on January 20 will be a positive step from the Irish point of view. Biden, an Irish-born Democrat, has already been determined to favor a Brexit deal that guarantees an open border on the island. IIEA analyst Tom Ferris says Biden’s presence in the White House will be a positive thing that can be built.
In addition, Ireland’s tax policies, which are favorable for overseas companies, have long made it the European site of choice for US companies such as Google and Amazon.