COVID-19 could complicate Pelosi’s path to Speaker next year

As a speaker Nancy PelosiMeghan McCain, who sent a relief bill to Trump in Florida (D-California) seeks support to hold the hammer for another term, its allies are monitoring a possible wildcard that could complicate its path next month: COVID-19.

Pelosi is already facing a much smaller majority in the next Congress, after Democrats were embargoed at the polls in November, meaning much fewer Democratic defections can be allowed than the 15 who opposed it two years ago. . And lawmakers must be present on the floor of the House to vote for Speaker, and the option for members to vote remotely is ruled out, as many have done throughout the pandemic.

The combination of factors creates the possibility that Democrats may face a dilemma on Jan. 3 in which Pelosi closes Democratic support to remain president, but concerns about the coronavirus (disease, quarantine, or others) prevent a sufficient number. at the Capitol to register their votes.

The fact that Pelosi did not get the support of half the voting members would cause at least the process in chaos. In the Democrats ’nightmare scenario, the math could lean so far in favor of Republicans that a Republican Party president would give.

“Let’s say, theoretically, we had six or eight people with Covid and the Republicans don’t have any. They could probably choose [Kevin] McCarthy, “the representative said. John YarmuthThe election of John Allen’s Pentagon YarmuthBiden puts Democrats in an obligation: Jason Smith will be the top Republican on the House Budget Committee. The Republican Party’s head of debt hurts families and derails our recovery MORE (D-Ky.), Referring to the leader of the Republican House Party.

Lawmakers were reminded of their vulnerability this week, when five more members of the House tested positive for COVID-19, raising the total number of infected lawmakers to at least 35 as the pandemic affected the U.S. about a year.

With that in mind, Pelosi’s supporters say it’s a holiday outburst (not Democratic detractors) that poses the biggest threat to Pelosi’s victory, which was otherwise expected, next month.

“We are in a health crisis, aren’t we? No one can get sick. That’s the X factor here, “said a House Democrat, an ally of Pelosi’s, who spoke anonymously to discuss a sensitive issue.” We need everyone to be healthy. … That’s the big fear. “

Some of these fears are easing with the launch of the COVID-19 vaccine. To protect the continuity of government, House and Senate lawmakers now have the opportunity to receive a vaccine at the attending physician’s Capitol. Pelosi and leader of the majority of the Senate Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch), Mitchell McConnell, GOP tries to avoid Trump’s messy fight for Electoral College bipartisan, bicameral group urges Trump to sign COVID-19 relief package Meghan McCain says Merry Christmas to everyone except to healthy people under the age of 65, who are vaccinated before front-line workers MORE (R-Ky.) They were among the first to get their shots on Friday.

“As the vaccine is distributed, we must all continue to use the mask, social distancing, and other science-based steps to save lives and crush the virus,” Pelosi said. he tweeted along with a photo of her vaccinated.

But many House lawmakers told The Hill they have been able to stay healthy year-round by taking refuge in their place and completely avoiding the Capitol. Emergency rules, pushed by Democrats in May, have allowed lawmakers to vote remotely or by delegation. This means that older members, those battling cancer and other diseases, or those caring for young children do not need to return to Washington each week to get votes. On Dec. 18, for example, about 90 Democrats voted for representation.

But the rule of voting by delegation expires with the new Congress, which requires lawmakers to be in the Capitol in person if they want to participate in the Jan. 3 president’s vote. The House will adopt a new package of rules that will govern the 117th Congress just after the President’s vote.

This makes physical assistance equivalent to Pelosi’s success, as Democrats are on track to have a meager 222-seat majority and at least three moderate members of the group already state they have no intention of voting for Pelosi on Jan. 3. : Representatives of Conor Lamb (Pa.), Jared Golden (Maine) and Elissa SlotkinElissa SlotkinHouse Democrats push Biden Pentagon selection into civilian control of army Biden Pentagon selection puts Democrats in an obligation to defend Lloyd Austin MORE (Jo).

Complicating the math, several Democrats have ongoing health issues that are unrelated to the coronavirus that has kept them out of the Capitol for much of the year. A handful of COVID-19 cases in addition, some fear, could sink Pelosi’s prospects.

“COVID is a wildcard,” the rep said. Hank JohnsonHenry (Hank) C. Johnson Democratic Senators Introduces Bill to Prohibit Discrimination in the Financial Services Industry Five Take-Out Meals as Panels at the Table Technology CEOs, Public Farewell to John Lewis MORE (D-Ga.). “If we have sick members who can’t come back, and we only have a four-vote majority, that will jeopardize our entire appearance in the 117th Congress, a smooth advance.”

Johnson warned that a chaotic vote by the president on Jan. 3 would highlight the party’s internal divisions at exactly the wrong time, just two days before a couple of special Senate elections in their home state, which will decide who controls the upper house for the next two years. .

“The implications it could have on the race[s] in Georgia, it’s unsettling, ”he said.

To avoid this scenario, several Pelosi allies informally whip up the president’s criticism, hoping they will support Pelosi for party unity, or at least vote “present,” which will not count against the majority. As part of this presentation, some lawmakers warn detractors who threaten the health of fellow patients by forcing them to return to the Capitol to counter the “no” votes.

“This should be considered by these members who exercise a political prerogative: that, in doing so, they put someone who is fighting a really difficult disease in the situation of having to run the risk of offsetting their political prerogatives,” said a second Democratic MP.

“It’s frustrating because it’s become something bigger than it should be,” the legislator added. “It was like a picturesque anecdote that people could say they voted for Colin PowellColin Luther Powell Night Defense: Biden Defense Chooses Retired General for Pentagon Chief | House passes the bill for endless expenses throughout the week Senate rejects effort to block arms sales in UAE, Colin Powell praises Biden decision for Pentagon chief: “Excellent choice” No, unfaithful voters will not give Donald Trump a second term MORE or John LewisJohn Lewis: Electoral fears were averted, but Americans still failed in a real way Obama appears in three Warnock campaign ads in Georgia Healing and Payment with National Service MORE.

“This is no longer an opportunity to express opinions; it is a consequent vote “.

Some Pelosi allies, however, see a silver streak in the pandemic in connection with their success in holding the hammer on January 3rd. In short: they say she could provide her critics, those who have promised voters who will oppose her. with a convenient excuse for not being on the ground that day.

“COVID could be a useful way to address some strategic absences,” said a third House Democrat, who also spoke anonymously to discuss the strategy. “If you have a member, let’s say, who has been classified in this way and has a sick or elderly relative at home, a new baby or something else, the strategic absence is a way to keep his promise. while reducing the denominator to help Pelosi “.

Of course, it’s unclear how many lawmakers could be forced to quarantine in the first week of next year. But health experts warn of an increase in cases during the long December holidays, when the cold causes more and more people inside. And some Democrats admit that it is inevitable that members of Congress will be affected just like everyone else.

“Obviously, the concern is that with 435 people across the country, it’s hard to imagine any of us getting the virus on Jan. 3,” a fourth House Democrat said.

Pelosi, the nation’s first female president, is no stranger to fighting the challenges of her leadership over the years. Most recently, he defeated a considerable revolt in 2018, when he screamed for victory with 220 votes. And despite the thin margins, there is an overwhelming feeling among Democrats that they will find a way to do it again next month: coronavirus or none.

“There are the usual suspects who are part of his brand to vote against it. But I think there’s an awareness – and there certainly is a message coming from inside the caucus – that it may not be a year for the usual brand, ”Rep said. Jim HimesJames (Jim) Andres Himes Democrats debate fate of Trump investigations if Biden wins House Democrats introduce bill to invest $ 0 billion in STEM research and education Night Defense: Pentagon IG to audit use of COVID-19 funds to contractors | Is optimistic about blocking Germany’s withdrawal from Trump | Obama puts foreign policy more against Trump (D-Conn.). “We are a fragile gang, but Pelosi is very, very good at what he does. So he will earn his money. “

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