Boris Johnson’s post-Brexit plan for Britain remains an enigma

Some of its longtime advocates have declared Brexit as a way to unleash new dynamism in Britain, leaving the Brussels bureaucracy to create a “Singapore-on-Thames” with a tax-free round, phrase coined by a former British Treasury chief Philip Hammond: it sells its products and services worldwide.

But Mr. Johnson is not a free-market conservative under Margaret Thatcher. So far it has promised the British more regulation, no less, with ambitious plans to raise the minimum wage and curb greenhouse gas emissions. He has promised more state spending, no less, in order to “level up” an economy that he says is too dependent on London and the south of England.

These policies allowed him to gain strength in last year’s election in districts traditionally hostile to ruling Conservatives, while his persevering pursuit of Brexit alienated many of his party’s traditional allies in corporate boardrooms. All these tensions present a puzzle: if Mr Johnson does not want another Thatcher-style economic revolution, what does he want to do with British freedom in Brussels?

His first task is to deal with what could be a tougher year. The disruption of new trade agreements with the UK’s largest export market runs the risk of hampering the pandemic’s economic recovery.

A 2019 election commitment to revive the lagging regions seems more complicated now that the virus has made a hole in UK public finances.

The pandemic itself is not over: the country is heading into the new year with a new variant of coronavirus against loose and rising infections that will lead to an inevitable future toll of deaths. Even with a vaccination program on track, it will be months before Covid-19 is under sufficient control to lift economic constraints, resistance to which will likely continue from repair sections of its own party. Meanwhile, Scottish nationalists want another shot against independence.

Although Brexit is taking place, Mr Johnson’s long-term vision of the UK is unclear, political observers say. “He’s had opportunities to articulate some kind of grand plan, but I don’t think he has it or I think he feels he needs it,” said Simon Usherwood, a policy professor at the University of Surrey.

The EU’s fear that Johnson would try to create an economy with low taxes and low regulation guided the bloc’s tough focus on the Brexit negotiations. The concern was that the UK would become a low-cost competitor at the door of the EU, capable of undermining European companies because their standards were lower. The EU’s response was to build a trade agreement under which, if the UK set aside its standards – say changing the law to allow factories to pollute more – it would lose tariff-free access to the bloc.

Johnson attempted negotiations to maximize the UK’s freedom from blockchain regulation. But in important policy areas, their plans reflect or augment those of the EU rather than undermine them.

His big election victory in 2019 consisted of a manifesto that included promises to raise the minimum wage and curb corporate tax evasion. In its policy announcements on the environment and climate change, the United Kingdom has set ambitious targets that go beyond EU commitments. Meanwhile, the Bank of England has said it will not ease capital requirements and other bank regulations.

Johnson, who was the main public face of the Brexit movement, praised Britain’s exit from the EU as a claim to sovereignty. In speeches, he has trumpeted traditional conservative priorities such as low taxes and deregulation, tougher policing and stricter immigration rules.

But he has also spoken out in favor of traditionally center-left goals, such as lavish investment in infrastructure and state support for industry, including greater protection against foreign acquisitions, marking a break with the orthodoxy of the free. market that the ruling conservatives have defended. since the presidency of Mrs. Thatcher. He is in favor of strict environmental regulations and banned the export of live animals for slaughter.

It is unclear what tension of political thought will dominate the rest of his time in office.

“Our plan to rebuild this country will not be wasted,” Johnson told the Conservative Party conference this year, committing to more investment in health care, policing and education. But in the same speech he warned that the state could not act as “Uncle Sugar” forever.

The mixed political messages mean that his vision of how post-Brexit Britain will diverge from the EU is blurred. The departure in November of Dominic Cummings, Johnson’s top adviser and one of the brains in the Brexit referendum, adds to this uncertainty.

Of Johnson’s entourage, Cummings had presented the more detailed view of post-Brexit Britain. He wrote extensively on how Britain, without the limitations of EU regulation, would be able to deal more quickly with issues such as climate change, immigration change, urbanization and the use of large technologies.

The vision envisioned a new state that could intervene quickly to adjust regulation and therefore strengthen investment and innovation. He argued that Britain would maintain economic competitiveness by becoming a leading center in scientific research and cutting-edge industries such as artificial intelligence and green technology.

By becoming the first Western country to approve Pfizer Inc.

and BioNTech SE‘s

vaccine against Covid-19, the UK made a sign demonstration of the kind of regulatory agility that Mr Johnson and Mr Cummings anticipate.

Aside from Brexit, Johnson’s electoral commitment was to revitalize the former industrial regions of the UK, which were left behind, with a lavish taxpayer-funded investment in schools, hospitals and infrastructure. Rishi Sunak, Chief Treasurer of Mr. Johnson, has defended “free ports,” low-tax manufacturing areas that skeptics say encourage tax evasion, as multinational companies can set up factories and create new jobs.

Internationally, Britain’s post-Brexit vision is better defined. Johnson has spoken of Britain becoming a global advocate for free trade, human rights and the fight against climate change, highlighting London’s aspirations to act as a global fixer, focusing on its weight in forums. such as the Group of Seven and the United Nations. It has already increased military spending and, for example, officials say it will use its financial influence to develop sanctions to punish human rights abuses.

A central goal of Brexit was to give the UK the opportunity to sign independent EU trade agreements. Officials argue that the UK outside the EU can negotiate agreements with countries better suited to the service-centric British economy.

To date, the UK’s new deals with countries such as Japan and Mexico have largely replicated those that already exist with the EU. A key target is the US

Mr Johnson’s office was relieved when the prime minister was one of the first European leaders to receive a call from President-elect Joe Biden, after spending years courting Donald Trump. But the president-elect has said he is in no hurry to offer anyone a trade deal, given urgent national priorities.

Write to Jason Douglas to [email protected] and Max Colchester to [email protected]