From the moment the fight was announced, Ryan Garcia vs. Luke Campbell was reduced to an important topic of conversation: whether or not Garcia is ready to take a step forward and prove that he is true as an elite boxer and not just as a social media star.
But the CMB lightweight interim title at stake on Saturday in Dallas will not be a gift wrapped up by Garcia. For Campbell, who has suffered defeats in his previous two world title fights, against Vasiliy Lomachenko and Jorge Linares, it is one more opportunity to show that he can take a step forward and not fade into the spotlight. great moment.
And there’s no doubt about it: the first major boxing billboard of 2021 is a big moment. We’ve seen this kind of fight before: the young phenomenon against a guy with enough experience to challenge and cause him problems. And it could be just Garcia’s second main fight, but there are plenty of reasons to believe he’s up to it and show that he has the skills to support it all.
In his most recent fight, his first major event, 22-year-old Garcia, took less than two minutes (80 seconds to be exact) to get a prominent knockout against Francisco Fonseca in February.
In the world of boxing, we talk about experience, how being a veteran and fighting all those rounds is important. In some cases, it is. But not this one. Garcia is younger. He is older. He is stronger. It’s faster. It has exceptional synchronization.
We’ve seen Campbell, and it seems pretty safe to say we know who and what he’s like as a fighter. It has faded into the spotlight. We saw it against Linares, when he fought hard in the intermediate rounds, but he couldn’t finish strong and lost that split decision. We saw it when he fought Lomachenko, throwing some good punches at the start, but not being able to spread throughout the fight.
It seems that at some point along the way he loses focus and concentration.
Campbell, stylistically, is not the type of boxer who should give Garcia trouble, at all. Campbell is a technical boxer who does his best work when he is digging up his body and is a little more aggressive. But he doesn’t keep it. He can’t sustain the kind of pressure needed to beat Garcia’s pace.
I think Garcia will face some tough challenges in the future, although he has shown that he is a great fighter and is only improving. I don’t think Campbell is the type who can exploit the flaws Garcia currently shows, but there are. Fight with your chin in the air. Many times Garcia blocks his knees and goes straight. It does not withstand pressure too well.
The reason I have so much confidence in what Garcia can do comes from how I analyze fights. I analyze five criteria, and while it’s not an exact science, I think it’s a good way to sketch out how a fight will unfold most of the time.
No. 1: Which boxer is smarter? Who knows when to fight and when not?
I have to go with Garcia about this. He knows when to box, when to fight, when to suffocate, when to tie. He’s smart there. He is undefeated for a reason. Campbell may show some of these skills, especially when he’s getting down to body, but he doesn’t have a good rhythm.
No. 2: Who can make adjustments as the fight progresses?
It’s true that we haven’t seen Garcia have to adapt, because he catches the boys early. It has superior synchronization. Knock out rivals. I saw Campbell being knocked down against a smaller guy in Lomachenko. He fell against Linares, who is not known as a great hitter. Garcia has power of blow and speed, and I think that projects him to find the places to land blows, make decisions, and make the right adjustments when they need to be made.
No. 3: Who has better concentration, conditioning and endurance?
Garcia, no doubt. He ran the distance only once, in a 10-round fight, and this will be his third 12-round fight. The first two did not come out of the first round. Campbell, on the other hand, vanishes in the second half of the fights. This is your MO, especially in the big moments. He doesn’t seem to have the conditioning and concentration to get 12 hard rounds.
No. 4: Who is ready at all times? Who lives the sport?
I have to go again with Garcia. He could be wrong about Campbell, underestimating how much he lives and dies with boxing. But I can tell you this: Garcia is always in shape. I saw him in San Diego not long ago. He looked slender, he looked smart, and he looked focused. Even as someone who has a bigger structure than many other guys in the division, it looks like he won’t have much difficulty gaining weight. He is always getting ready, always at the gym. Live and breathe the sport.
No. 5: Who has the best coach?
Nothing against Shane McGuigan and the work he does with Campbell, but Eddy Reynoso is a great coach. He has Canelo Alvarez, which tells you a lot about his reputation and what he thinks of Garcia to work with him as well. Think of Garcia’s heart. Think about Garcia’s skills. The synchronization he has in his strokes. That left hook he owns, that the boys don’t see coming. He has all the tools he needs to win this fight, and Reynoso is sharpening them all.
Prediction: Garcia has more to prove. This is Garcia’s time. Garcia should win that fight, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he catches Campbell and knocks him out. I think that would be the midpoint of the fight, the sixth or seventh round. He will catch Campbell, hurt him and finish him off.
the figures
Courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information
5-0, 4 KOs: Garcia’s record since he went from lightweight to lightweight junior.
2:58: Total fighting time for Garcia in his last two fights, a pair of KOs in the first round against Francisco Fonseca and Romero Duno.
7,800,000: Total followers on Instagram by @kingryan. Among boxers, this places Garcia in the top four, behind three of the sport’s top names: Floyd Mayweather (24,400,000), Mike Tyson (14,300,000) and Anthony Joshua (11.9 million). Garcia recently surpassed Canelo Alvarez (7.5 million).
0: Number of times Campbell has been knocked out. He has been knocked down four times in his career and lost three defeats by decision, but Campbell has never been knocked out.
33.5: Average number of jabs per round thrown by Campbell, the seventh highest among all active boxers, according to CompuBox data.
0:32
The lightweight world champion gave a sample of his boxing ability in a video that went up on social media.
the bets
Courtesy of William Hill’s Caesars Sportsbook, through Friday AM
Ryan Garcia: -400
Luke Campbell: +310
Garcia for KO / TKO / DQ: +110
Garcia by decision: +240
Campbell for KO / TKO / DQ: +500
Campbell by decision: +600
The fight comes to an end: Yes +130 | no -175
You defend the title for the Alvarado twins
Only two pairs of brothers currently hold world titles. Most could name the Charlo twins: Jermell, the FIB / AMB / CMB junior middleweight world champion, and Jermall, the CMB middleweight world champion. However, most would have a hard time naming the other pair.
He is another pair of twins, although it could be understandable if you do not know the Nicaraguans Félix and René Alvarado.
Felix (35-2, 30 KOs) is the FIB’s junior flyweight world champion (108 pounds) and is in a 17-win streak dating back to his two professional defeats, which came in consecutive title challenges. Although they are twins, René (32-8, 21 KOs) fights in the light junior weight (130 pounds), a staggering 22-pound difference. René surprised the world of boxing with a dominant victory in a rematch against Andrew Cancio in November 2019, scoring a KO in the seventh round when the referee stopped the fight due to a cut on the eye left Cancio for a legal blow in the third assault.
René’s eight-win streak, including winning the AMB’s “regular” light junior title, is even more impressive considering that René lost six fights in a 10-fight stretch from 2014 to 2017, although the most occurred against strong competition, including their first fight. against Cancio and a decision defeat to Yuriorkis Gamboa.
On Garcia-Campbell’s billboard, both fighters will risk their titles. Felix defends against DeeJay Kriel (16-1-1, 8 KOs), who has been undefeated in 17 fights (almost exclusively in his native South Africa) since losing his professional debut. René faces Roger Gutiérrez (24-3-1, 20 KOs) in a rematch of a 2017 fight won by René.
The complete billboard:
• Championship fight: Ryan Garcia Vs. Luke Campbell, 12 rounds, for CMB lightweight vacant interim title
• Championship fight: René Alvarado vs. Roger Gutiérrez, 12 rounds, for the “regular” light junior title WITH
• Championship fight: Felix Alvarado vs. DeeJay Kriel, 12 rounds, for Alvarado’s FIB fly June title
• Raúl Curiel against Ramses Agaton, 10 rounds, welterweight
• Franchon Crews-Dezurn vs. Ashleigh Curry, 8 rounds, super medium
• Alex Racó vs. Sergio Lucio González, 6 rounds, junior middle
• Siguin García vs. René Márquez, 4 rounds, light
• Asa Stevens against Francisco Bonilla, 4 rounds, rooster
• Tristan Kalkreuth vs. Jorge Armando Martínez, 4 rounds, cruise
Tim Fiorvanti contributed to this report.