A fantastic future as predicted by Boris Johnson or a risky leap into the unknown as detractors of the Brexi? After almost 50 years in the European Union, the UK opens a new solo chapter on January 1, 2021.
What will change in the UK and the European Union from 1 January?
The United Kingdom officially left the European Union on 31 January 2020, but continued to enforce its rules during a transition period that ended this Thursday at 11pm in London, midnight in continental Europe. As of Friday, the country is walking alone again.
Thanks to the trade agreement reached a week ago by London and Brussels at the end of long and difficult last-minute negotiations, the prospect of tariffs and quotas for goods crossing the Hose Channel.
But even with an agreement, the future is far from perfect. British exporters they will have to present new customs documents to demonstrate that their products are suitable for the European single market.
London urged companies to prepare, but industries say the government has not provided computer systems and support staff on time, increasing the risk of chaos.
London’s plan to return to the world stage
Defending the idea of a “Global Britain”, London seeks to revitalize its bilateral relations with the rest of the world, especially with its “closest and most important ally,” the United States, in Johnson’s words.
But he lost a trick with the defeat of Donald Trump, an enthusiastic supporter of the Brexi. And the coronavirus pandemic has hit the British economy hard, threatening the bright future promised by the Conservative prime minister. The idea is for the UK not to close in on itself but to open up to the outside to forge free trade agreements around the world.
“Now that global Britain is back it’s time for manufacturers, men and women of action and innovators to help us write our most exciting chapter to date,” the international trade minister said. Liz Truss, in October, promising future exports of all sorts of British products, from creams to robots.
In addition to the European Union, the United Kingdom has already signed post-crisis trade agreements with Japan, Canada, Switzerland, Singapore and several Latin American countries led by Mexico and Chile. And it is negotiating others with the United States, Australia and New Zealand, among others.
Agreements in preparation or concluded, including the one signed with Brussels, account for 80 per cent of British foreign trade by 2022, says the government, which reshaped the ministry of Foreign relations to integrate its generous development aid into the British diplomatic agenda.
What will happen to the UK after Brexit?
Johnson’s big promise in last December’s legislature was to “carry out Brexit” and then end the growing economic disparities between rich finance London and the rest of the country, especially the post-industrial areas of the north. .
But this “improvement” program through major investments, such as the HS2 high-speed line that is to operate in central and northern England, was sidelined due to the pandemic.
The government insists, however, that its long-term goals are maintained and that the money with which London has so far contributed to the European budget will be better spent on British territory.
Some Brexit advocates called for a radical overhaul of the economic model to transform the country into one “Singapore on the Thames”, a kind of tax haven with an ultra-regulated financial sector that becomes a powerful rival at the gates of the European Union. But this was hampered by the terms of the trade agreement, with which Brussels made sure to avoid any unfair competition.
The government assures that the conclusion of trade agreements will not be to the detriment of key issues such as public health or agri-food regulations, especially in its negotiations with the United States.
At the national level, the Conservative executive will have to strive to reunite the British, divided by a Brexit against which both Scotland and Northern Ireland had been voting.
“We leave an empty seat at the table of Europe” but “it will not be empty for long,” threatened Scottish pro-independence MP Ian Blackford, and demanded a new referendum on self-determination, after the one lost in 2014, with the hope of being able to reintegrate the EU as an independent state.
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