It is more than obvious that economic gurus in the world, who cause immediate contagions in the Dominican Republic, are looking for an artificial way out of a problem as complex and costly as the pandemic unleashed by the new coronavirus.
To say that the Dominican economy will grow 4.8% this year, as the World Bank has just stated in a study on the global perspective, is a barbaric prognosis that could only be taken into account if a thorough examination were supported. of the sectors that will determine this growth.
But it turns out that the World Bank’s projection is that the rise in growth for the Caribbean, which stands at 4.5%, would be “driven by a partial recovery in tourism.”
Dreaming of a recovery of tourism in the short or medium term, both in the Dominican Republic and in the destination of the world, promises to end in a nightmare and all the resources allocated for this purpose, are going to a bottomless barrel.
How many Dominicans go on vacation to the United States and Europe each year? How many came out in 2020 in Paris, Madrid, Cairo, Istanbul, Miami, Las Vegas or Los Angeles?
Just as Dominicans do not risk going out to the most coveted tourist destinations in the world, so are retirees or boyfriends who used to come to the country for millions from Europe, Asia and North America.
More optimistic than World Bank technicians was the governor of the Central Bank, Hector Valdez, who at the virtual conference of the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) on December 20, argued that the economic recovery Dominican Republic could mount 6% in 2021.
It is seen that in the projections of recovery of the economy there is an excess of optimism that serves to generate confidence, but the investors of the real economy (not the money launderers of the mafia and corruption) do not make decisions under the effects of a “convincing” narrative full of risks, but with the gaze set on reality.
How many Dominican entrepreneurs today dare to seek funding of 200 million pesos to set up a factory – except for medical supplies – and be part of that growth between 4.8 and 6 percent planned for this year? Let’s see who tries it and takes advantage of good bank rates!
The pandemic is not a game
The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the country and the world are simply devastating in the areas of health, education, employment, income, production, sales, services and mobility of people.
It is a direct impact on the quality of life of the people and a brutal blow to the productive assets of companies and government resources to meet this challenge and the general course of public administration.
With 87.5 million people infected worldwide, of whom nearly two million have died, the health of all humans is shaken by a veritable storm that has already altered the pace of everything else.
In the country alone, according to figures published by the Directorate of Epidemiology of the Ministry of Health, more than 177,000 were registered until yesterday, of which more than 2,400 have died and the Intensive Care Units are occupied by 58 per cent. one hundred.
The figures, of course, cannot reflect the reality of the level of infestation the country suffers because there is an underreport of asymptomatic infected that cannot be less than this amount and are the involuntary vectors that spread the virus in the their family, social and work circles.
Trying to hide the depth of the damage that Covid-19 is doing to the country is pure nonsense, otherwise unnecessary because it is not the fault of this or the previous government, although it is their responsibility to adopt the most precise public policies to control the contagions and then shake up the working population to recover production, boost domestic trade and exports, so that the path of growth can be resumed.
Order of priorities
You don’t have to be an expert economist or a consummate epidemiologist to know that here and now the real priority, not the one told to the “public”, is to stop the infection, cure the infected and then put the country in a position to recover. ‘economy, starting with its mining, its agriculture, service infrastructure and finally, when there are conditions in the world, to attract tourists again.
With the world experience of more than a year under the ravages of the Covid-19, it has been learned that to curb the contagion requires the harmonious combination of a responsible exercise of authority with population.
If the authority does not give samples – I am appealing to facts, not promises of words – it allocates sufficient resources to detect infected people early through clear efforts to make enough diagnostic tests, clinical reviews, effective treatment and follow-up. contacts, people will hardly take the threat they are facing seriously and take preventative measures to prevent the contagion.
What the Dominican authorities are doing best right now is treating the infected in public hospitals, but this is much more expensive than prevention and diagnostic tests that can determine where the active foci of the virus are.
The capital and the provinces of Santiago, Puerto Plata and La Altagracia -all very important tourist hubs- are the most active foci of the coronavirus at the moment.
It is in them that it is necessary to make massive and sectorial diagnostic tests to know the magnitude of the infestation and to adopt the preventive sanitary measures before all the country is accompanied by an uncontrollable cloud that the authorities and the sanitary system will not be able to conjure.
economic effects
One of the hardest blows, after health, is the loss of jobs in tourism, SMEs and manufacturing in general.
The government’s desire to maintain social assistance programs for the most vulnerable population and workers suspended by companies has been vital so that no sectoral hunger is registered here. This explains why supermarkets and markets are always full, despite the stagnation suffered by the economy throughout the year 2020.
But as the Dominican economy has such a harmonious diversification: manufacturing, mining, tourism, agro-export, free zones, remittances, it has been able to withstand the first onslaught of the crisis generated by the pandemic.
A correct line now would be – in terms of production – to pour much more resources into agriculture, intensify mining explorations, create a modern fishing fleet, manage agri-food export businesses to all the islands of the Caribbean at the same time to promote a massive housing construction program across the country.
This type of action induces the demand for building materials, encourages employment throughout the country and boosts industry and domestic trade.
If this country thinks it can recover tourism in the next two years, it would need a magician, who, if it existed, would rather go to the Grand Canyon of Colorado or Las Vegas.