Johnson & Johnson Covid Vaccine: Analysts are cautiously optimistic

LONDON – Health systems around the world are struggling to cope with a growing number of Covid-19 infections as they compete against the clock to vaccinate the vulnerable.

The three vaccines currently approved for use by major Western economies require two separate strokes and supplies are limited; governments are considering controversial tactics such as extending the time between doses to get at least one dose to as many people as possible.

A single vaccine could significantly improve our ability to fight the virus, and we may have one soon.

Johnson & Johnson is expected to produce preliminary final phase test results for its single-dose Covid vaccine candidate in late January. If its punch is shown to be safe and effective, the company aims to administer at least 1 billion doses by the end of the year.

The J&J vaccine was developed by the company’s Belgian unit, Janssen Pharmaceutica, and is based on the vector technology of viral adenovirus, the same approach that was used to create the Oxford University-AstraZeneca vaccine. These types of features are easier to scale than those developed by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, which are based on RNA messaging technology.

Health analyst Adam Barker of Shore Capital said in an email to CNBC last week: “The J&J vaccine is more like the AstraZeneca vaccine, but it only uses one dose. So we know this approach works (vector -viral) and goes to the peak protein. We know the target works too. But we’ll have to see what a dose does. “

Morgan Stanley’s healthcare team said in a research note released last week that the J&J vaccine offers “unique elements and effectiveness could surprise upwards in relation to AstraZeneca, boosting confidence in the response to the pandemic and the market recovery “.

The investment bank is confident in the safety profile of the vaccine given the data from the early trials, “along with the previous profile of success and safety demonstrated in its Ebola vaccine, as well as in the research use in HIV, RSV and Zika “.

A report by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, founded by the former British Prime Minister, describes AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson as “two workhorse vaccines” because they should be delivered on a large scale and be more easy to manage that mRNA shoots.

With J&J technology, the vaccine is expected to remain stable for at least three months at normal refrigerated temperatures, so it does not require new infrastructure to transport it.

J&J completed enrollment in its phase three clinical trial of 45,000 participants for its single-dose vaccine candidate on December 17th. Preliminary trial data are expected to be available by the end of the month.

If the data indicate the vaccine is safe and effective, the company plans to file an application for emergency use authorization with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in February. Other health regulatory applications are expected to be made in parallel around the world.

The company has pledged to sell the nonprofit vaccine for emergency pandemic use.

J&J signed an agreement with the United States in August 2020 to deliver 100 million doses of the vaccine after FDA approval or authorization for emergency use and the option to purchase until An additional 200 million doses under a subsequent agreement.

The UK negotiated an agreement in August to initially buy 30 million doses of the J&J vaccine with the option to buy up to 22 million additional doses. The EU signed an agreement with J&J in October to supply up to 400 million doses.

J&J has also agreed to supply up to 500 million doses of its vaccine as part of an agreement in principle with The Vaccine Alliance (Gavi), responsible for equitable access to vaccines, including the lowest-income countries through COVAX. These doses will be distributed until 2022 if the use of the candidate vaccine is accepted.

“If J&J’s Ad26 platform is able to deliver 80% + efficiency through a single dose regimen, given the favorable handling requirements of the vaccine and the significant manufacturing scale, we would see it as a compelling result,” said Morgan Stanley.

As for what governments should do in the meantime, Jonathan Reiner, a professor of medicine and surgery at George Washington University School of Medicine and Health Sciences, argues: “The J&J vaccine is why we shouldn’t give up. “Two-dose strategy for Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna. We probably have all the vaccine we need. We need to focus on getting the vaccines armed.”