Is DJ LeMahieu likely to return to the Yankees?

Earlier this offseason, most industry informants assumed DJ LeMahieu and the Yankees would stay together, even when LeMahieu supplied the waters of the free agents. A recent report suggested the veteran infielder might be ready to look elsewhere. A group of MLB.com reporters gathered to discuss.

Alyson Footer (@alysonfooter, moderator): A recent Yahoo report suggested that DJ LeMahieu was not happy with the fact that the Yankees are no longer aggressive with contract negotiations and has instructed his representation to open the floor to other suitors. What do we do with it? I feel like in normal times, that would be something bigger than it is now. This has been such a slow winter.

Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand, executive reporter): Honestly, I’m not sure how much other teams read anything they see in media reports. It is difficult to know where the information comes from.

Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello, analyst): To be honest, I was surprised at the thought that they had arrived in January without having strongly committed other teams. Could it be true?

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Fine sand: The Yankees have made it clear that they want to return to LeMahieu and LeMahieu has expressed a desire to return to New York. As Gordon Gecko famously said, the rest is conversation.

Petriello: As much as I like to say this, I think Mark is right. It’s not like all the other teams did, well, okay, now we can think of LeMahieu. It doesn’t work that way.

Fine sand: I keep coming back to one thing: when was the last time the Yankees wanted to retain a player and that player left? I guess it was Andy Pettitte in 2003, but there were other circumstances that attracted him to Houston. Robinson Cannon was not a player the Yankees wanted to return bad enough for the price he was asking, so they made him a seven-year, $ 175 million offer that they knew he would turn down.

When the Yankees want to get a player back, they do. When all is said and done, I hope LeMahieu stays with the Yankees. In any case, these reports could give hope to teams that were already interested in LeMahieu. Could they increase their supply and try to reach an agreement? For sure. But I find it hard to believe that the Yankees won’t have a chance to match that offer before LeMahieu signs elsewhere.

Petriello: This also seems like being 101 agent if you really try to send a signal to the Yankees.

Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson, Blue Jays won the reporter): The Blue Jays have liked LeMahieu the whole time, but they also see what the rest of us see: LeMahieu’s likely return to the Yankees. The Blue Jays have been one of the “also interested” teams with several players this offseason and this will continue, as the league knows full well how much financial flexibility it has, but has won second or third in the search for a major free agent. take them nowhere. Is it encouraging to know that LeMahieu is more open to talking to other teams, but are these other teams legitimate options or just tools used in their negotiations with New York?

Bottom of the page: Keegan’s point is good. Teams like the Blue Jays certainly don’t want to be “played” as a pawn to raise the price. The Yankees may consider that they will offer maximum performance to LeMahieu. But you can’t increase bidding without two teams. So can there also be some play?

Fine sand: And Joel Wolfe doesn’t need a beginner class on how to be an agent.

Hey, if the Blue Jays can raise the price, they can force the Yankees to A) pay too much to get it back or B) decide the price is too high. If he is the first, they have forced a rival in the division to spend more money than they wanted. If it’s the latter, maybe LeMahieu is wearing a Toronto uniform. Win-win.

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Petriello: I also think maybe LeMahieu needs the Yankees more than he may want to leave. It is objectively fun for me that after years of playing Coors and all the associated connotations that come with it, I go to the Bronx and, in two years as a Yankee, do this:

OPS Home: 1,063
OPS Highway: .793

That’s a 240-point difference, without the narrative “my home park hurts me on the road,” you can tell if you’re a Rockie.

As Mark said, it seems to be the perfect fit for player and team. (Aside from the fact, it would force them to keep Gleyber Torres short, which seems bad).

Fine sand: The whole market is slow. That LeMahieu’s market is also dragging on should come as no surprise.

Matheson: Blue Jays Vs. New York is a bit of an issue this offseason. Of course, they participate in George Springer as their main goal, but they could face the Mets as their biggest challenge. This research seems more realistic than LeMahieu given the desired terms.

The Yankees would be overtaken by the Blue Jays because their own star would be a strange, new world.

Petriello: It is estimated that the Yankees are already seeing what the Mets are doing, and losing a DJ to a division rival would not be a much more fun season for the Steinbrenners. A little foot in the fire never hurts.

Fine sand: This is precisely why reports like this usually get different answers. I do not deny the validity of the report at all, but I am not sure to what extent it will influence the approach of the teams to the negotiations.

Petriello: (He won’t).

Matheson: The Blue Jays also don’t tend to make emotional decisions with their money. I wish I could say the same for me, but they will adhere to your assessment.

Bottom of the page: Let’s look at this part of Yahoo’s report: “Teams that have collaborated with LeMahieu’s camp say LeMahieu expects more from Josh Donaldson’s $ 92 million four-year contract with the Minnesota Twins, and at least at the same level as JD Martinez’s five years and $ 110 million with the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees, LeMahieu’s favorite club after two successful seasons in the Bronx, have not met those terms. “

Petriello: That’s better than the previous report that said it was looking for five years and $ 125 million, which was never realistic.

Fine sand: Donaldson’s contract was always around where he thought LeMahieu’s contract would come from. I still think that’s right.

The biggest question about LeMahieu’s contract is whether any team moves to the fifth year. If they do, there is a good chance they will succeed. I think the Yankees will stay in four years, although that is my personal opinion, not that of anyone on the team.

Petriello: I think his problem here is that he has no history close to these two players, although he is obviously much more valuable as a defender than Martinez. But it’s bigger than people think (July 33) and some of Statcast’s underlying metrics weren’t great this year (decreases in defense, ninth percentile in barrel rate, so you want to put in one more season short).

It makes a lot of good solid contact and can play many positions, so it’s valuable. But two years ago, he got two years, $ 24 million. He is definitely getting a good raise for that. But he thought more of the “four ish for 70 million ish” line. There is a 0.0% chance of exceeding $ 100 million.

Fine sand: I was waiting for Mike to understand with a lot of stats to make me feel silly. Thanks, Mike!

Matheson: I also hope that one day I will be described as “bigger than people think”.

Fine sand: Mike, be careful with 0.0 percent. I wouldn’t say there’s a better chance you’ll get more than $ 100 million, but it’s definitely a non-zero opportunity.

Petriello: It can be less than zero.

Matheson: On the part of the Blue Jays, Mark Shapiro said that, “there are still a lot of uncertainties within the budget, but not in terms of the Major League payroll.” Having Rogers, a communications company, as a property group, presents a very different dynamic to that of an individual owner, but the messaging of the club remains that the money is there. With LeMahieu, the term could be more of a problem than a salary. This also happens with Springer negotiations or any other that extends beyond 2-3 seasons. In a fourth year, this young core will be expensive, so the Blue Jays are also looking at dollars and pennies in the long run.

Fine sand: What Keegan points out about the uncertainties in Toronto’s budget is likely to apply to all teams right now. There are still so many things we don’t know about the 2021 season – when will it start? How many games? Will there be fans in the stands? If so, how many? – that teams continue to work on the fly when it comes to payroll budgets.

Matheson: And building this point: where do the Blue Jays play? If you sign a three-year deal, for example, and one season (or most of one) arrives at the Spring Training Stadium in Dunedin, Florida, how important is that in your preferences? The answer will vary among players, but it is a real factor to consider.

Petriello: Keegan, if Springer and LeMahieu get similar deals … Springer is best for the Jays, right? And they wouldn’t get both … would they?

Matheson: Springer makes more sense between the two not only at the surface level, but when looking at what the Blue Jays ’booking options would be. If they miss LeMahieu, they can easily head to a third base and lean on the versatile Cavan Biggio at second. This is a good result. Yes, the Blue Jays have Randal Grichuk in midfield, but adding a player of Springer’s caliber in that position is such a rare opportunity, that they have been chasing it for several seasons.

The Blue Jays have a lot of high-end field prospects who will also reach Jordan Groshans and Austin Martin. In the outside field, his savior is not around the corner.

Petriello: The tl; dr of all this to me is … well, of of course he’s frustrated with the Yankees, because spring training is supposed to start in six weeks. There are a billion free unsigned agents. We don’t know if there is DH. And hey, how about that pandemic? I don’t blame him for being frustrated in the slow market; I also think very little of this is specific to DJ LeMahieu.

Fine sand: Well, the Yankees know they will have a DH. His name is Giancarlo Stanton.

Petriello: Sure, but the alleged National League contenders don’t. Not that it was the DH, but maybe someone who cares right now has to hold on to a glove, opening a seat.

Bottom of the page: Let’s finish this. Answer yes or no: Ultimately, LeMahieu will re-sign with the Yankees.

Petriello: I hate going with chalk, but … yes.

Fine sand: Yes. Four-year, $ 86 million, fifth-year option for $ 21 million ($ 8 million purchase). Thus, a total of $ 94 million.

Matheson: Yes. With the Blue Jays, once again, being “close”.

Petriello: I’ll say four for $ 80 million, with an easily affordable investment option for a fifth.