While the immediate focus of President-elect Joe Biden will likely be on the troubled domestic situation, with the Covid-19 pandemic and the political gap in the U.S., the Trump administration has also opted, as part of its final act, to deliver him a series of new international diplomatic dilemmas. In some cases, these are death or life situations.
These moves, announced by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, mean Biden will begin his presidential term with several key foreign relations embroiled in controversy, thanks to policies set by his predecessor.
“The Trump administration is blocking a series of conflicts that are changing the starting point for Biden to take office on the world stage,” said Raffaello Pantucci, a senior member of Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
However, since Washington established formal diplomatic ties with Beijing in 1979, it has resisted maintaining official diplomatic relations with Taipei to avoid a confrontation with communist leadership on the mainland, which still sees the island, where some 24 live. millions of people. – as part of China.
Critics fear that this week’s move by the Trump administration will give Beijing influence over the incoming Biden administration, although U.S. support for Taiwan against an increasingly assertive China has been on the rise. measures a bipartisan consensus in Washington.
“If the United States decides it wants to work with China on climate change, for example, China may demand that the United States reverse its position on Taiwan,” Pantucci said.
And, whether or not he wants Chinese hawks in the U.S., Biden might have to work with China to tackle climate change, global terrorism and all sorts of other issues.
Analysts had long expected Biden to maintain a blatant stance on China, but believed he would work with international allies to build a coherent coalition, rather than maintain Trump’s maximum pressure approach.
“What Biden should do is work with European allies to have a strategy aligned with China, but to do that you need time to build it,” said Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the U.S. and America program. Chatham House. “You don’t need more immediate problems to prevent them.”
Getting partners, especially those in Europe, to share a unified position on China was already a difficult task.
“European nations have very different attitudes towards China, with some, like the UK, very concerned and others, like Italy and Germany, more focused on China as an export market,” says Tom Tugendhat, chairman of the UK Department of Foreign Affairs. Selective Affairs Committee.
While it’s tempting to suggest that Biden could reverse politics once he takes office, this ignores the situation of loss and loss in which Trump has left the president-elect.
As Pantucci points out, capitulation “would cost Biden political capital at home,” where anti-Chinese sentiment is quite strong throughout the political corridor. If Biden re-imposed restrictions on contacts with Taiwan, it would also allow Beijing to claim that the United States had accepted its status as a province of China.
This “could have important implications for Taiwan’s own democracy, as Xi and his allies have not hesitated to assert their authority when they have been given the space to do so,” Pantucci added. Although “China is unlikely to attack Taipei,” Pantucci warned that there could be “more intrusions.” [by Beijing] in politics, meddling economically ”if Trump’s policy remains in place.
Bullying the Houthis is “a fantasy”
The situation in Yemen is equally tense and, as a result of the Trump administration’s actions, could be more deadly.
The war in Yemen has dragged on since 2014. So far, diplomatic channels have failed to end the conflict between the Saudi-backed government and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
It has been described by UNICEF as the “largest humanitarian crisis in the world, with more than 24 million people (approximately 80% of the population) in need of humanitarian aid, including more than 12 million children.”
“Designating the Houthis as a terrorist organization will not help resolve this conflict in any way, and it actually risks prolonging it,” said Chris Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding.
“There are risks that hard-hitting Houthi leaders will feel empowered to move further into Iran. They will not be willing to engage in diplomatic processes or secondary channels to Saudi Arabia.”
The longer the crisis, the worse things will be for those in need of humanitarian aid, analysts said.
The designation of terrorism will only hinder the delivery of food and medical supplies to the country for aid groups. It will also “make it difficult for aid organizations to have staff on the ground, as houthis can control the two main entry points into Yemen,” Doyle said.
“If you choose a side in a conflict, you can really harm civilian populations and it’s very irresponsible,” Doyle added. “The idea that you can intimidate houthis to soften their posture is a fantasy.”
Nail the coffin for Obama’s policy in Cuba
Pompeo de Cuba’s new appointment as a sponsor of state terrorism is likely to have the least material impact, but it represents a personal loss for Biden and a significant political victory for Trumpism.
In doing so, Trump throws the last key into the coffin of Barack Obama’s efforts to normalize relations with Cuba.
Stories have been written and will continue to be written about how Trump’s hard line on Cuban communist leaders played well with the Latin vote in Florida. This final act could leave a legacy to whoever carries the Trump torch in 2024.
“If the United States now goes to Cuba and says it wants to get back to where things were at the end of the Obama administration, Cuba can legitimately wonder why it should bother when it is possible for someone like Trump to be back. elected in 2024, ”Pantucci said.
And a reinstatement, while not at the top of his list of priorities, could have been something Biden would consider, as he was Obama’s vice president.
The issue of legacy is something to which Vinjamuri is paying special attention.
“They really are the dying days of the Trump administration and they really seem to lay the groundwork for something they can build,” he said, suggesting that Pompey’s latest moves could be an attempt to burn his toughness credentials for a run in the 2024 Presidential Election.
Biden will take office on January 20. Trump will disappear, at least for now, but his impact on the world will be felt over the next few years.
And it could take a full time for the new administration to unravel the eleven-hour decisions its predecessor made.