Copenhagen in February 2020.
Photographer: NurPhoto / NurPhoto
Photographer: NurPhoto / NurPhoto
Vaccines are spreading slowly but surely around the world. Does that mean it’s time to think about traveling?
The tourism industry would mean yes. According to the latest data from the The World Travel and Tourism Council, published in early November, predicted that travel restrictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic would get $ 4.7 trillion in global gross domestic product in 2020 alone.
But medical professionals still call for caution, a message that will continue to be a must, even after people have been vaccinated against Covid-19.
Among his warnings: vaccines are not 100% effective; take weeks to increase immunity (after the second trait), little is known about the ability to transmit Covid-19, even after vaccination; and the immunity of the flock will be far away. Their consensus is that the risks will remain, but freedom of movement can safely increase, allowing for at least certain types of travel, between people protected against the virus.
Yes, you will still need to wear a mask.
Here’s what you need to know more about travel safety in the coming months, whether you’ve gotten your shot or looking for normalcy at some point on the horizon.
What we know and what we don’t
The Covid-19 vaccines approved so far in both the United States and Europe have proven to be so exceptionally safe, effective and the strongest tool to date to combat the pandemic. However, unknowns are known, especially when it comes to the possible transmission of the virus after vaccination.
A nurse administers a vaccine at NYU-Langone Hospital in New York.
Photographer: Kevin Hagen / AP
This question is summed up in one point: clinical trials for currently approved vaccines, including those from Pfizer and Moderna, did not include periodic PCR testing of study participants. Without any data on its ability to carry the virus, there is only enough conclusive evidence to suggest that vaccines result in 95% effective protection against symptomatic infection, says Dr. Kristin Englund, an infectious disease specialist at Cleveland Clinic. .
“For the most part, if you are vaccinated [a disease]”You should not be able to transmit this virus to another person,” says Englund, adding that there is no known reason to believe that Covid-19 or its related vaccines are they have to behave differently. “It simply came to our notice then [with Covid-19 vaccines as well], but we have to wait until the studies prove it before we can substantially lower our guard ”.
There are other important unknowns as well. “To see a vaccine that is 95% effective are remarkable figures, much better than we had ever anticipated,” says Englund. “But now we do not have the ability to know who will have a good answer [to the vaccine] and who will be one of the 5% “.
How to think about herd immunity
Another unknown, to a lesser extent, is what will be needed to achieve the immunity of the flock.
“The general consensus is that it will take between 70% and 80% [of the population being immune] to eliminate widespread risk, perhaps more, ”says Dr. Scott Weisenberg, who serves as director of New York University’s infectious disease fellowship program and as medical director of the university’s travel medicine program. “We’re many months away from that, assuming the vaccine really eliminates transmission and people get it.”
At best, Weisenberg believes herd immunity can be achieved in the United States sometime this summer, pending the approval of easier-to-distribute vaccines, such as that of AstraZeneca, which could speed up the launch.
However, it is very unlikely.
“Acceptance of the vaccine is a big key question,” he adds. To its point, the World Health Organization described hesitation as one of the vaccines the top ten threats to public health in 2019, even before Covid-19 became part of the picture.
But the herd’s immunity can be cut and diced in many ways.
“You can talk about immunity to the herd within a state, within a smaller community, or even within a family,” Englund adds. “Therefore, if all the inhabitants of a room are vaccinated but there are none, you should be able to offer them more protection.”
This is a notable consideration for family reunions whose younger members may take longer to qualify for the vaccine than older or more at-risk members. (Currently approved vaccines have not yet been tested or approved for children by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which may prevent air travel between multigenerational groups until 2021).
A safari in Kenya may seem like a good socially remote vacation option, but you’ll want to consider your transfers
Source: Original Africa
Deciding where to go on the next vacation and who to travel with may have more to do with antibodies than such common considerations as time and price.
“Definitely, look at the current infection rate in this area, and not at all, catching vaccination in this population, are two very important things,” Englund says.
Don’t be surprised if you find it a counterintuitive exercise, Weisenberg adds.
For example, in New York City, where it is believed that 25% of the population has already contracted Covid-19, herd immunity may require a proportionately lower number of vaccines to get if previously infected people retain equivalent antibodies.
“The risk [of picking up or spreading the virus] could be relatively low, “Weisenberg says of the visit to Manhattan, given the rigor of the blocking measures, the historic acceptance of vaccines in urban areas compared to rural and high Covid-19 test rates among the local population, despite the incredible population density.
Go to Kenya, where you may have a socially distant safari, he adds, and you may have to go through places like Nairobi, where testing is low and it’s hard to get an accurate picture of risk in real time.
The evolution of the definition of “safe travel”
Expect the definition of safe travel to change week after week, especially as parts of the world decrease the increase in cases related to vacation travel and new variants of the virus.
“You have to keep in mind the problems of going somewhere and bringing the virus to an area where that is consistent,” Weisenberg says. He expects U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to end up having destination-level alerts, based on local risk, in line with the agency’s measles alerts, but says, “Right now it’s too widespread for isolate it “.
A good idea may be to look up the availability figures for the hospital (and specifically the ICU bed) before committing to taking a vacation anywhere, to ensure the local system isn’t overflowing yet.
A Delta plane is being disinfected.
Photographer: Michael A. McCoy / Getty Images North America
Weisenberg also believes that the increasing accuracy of rapid Covid-19 antigen testing will help ensure safety as mobility increases; it should be noted that the new US entry requirements include negative test results, even for those who have already been vaccinated.
“I’m going to get on a plane; I’ll be honest with you, ”Englund says.“ I’ll wear a mask, make sure we have seats where we’re not sitting next to someone else, with the right space in the middle, using all the hand sanitizer.
“We’ll get an Airbnb and spend quality time on a beach,” he continues, “and if we visit local places, we’ll see that we haven’t been vaccinated, approaching things with the same precautions as the -vaccine. there is nothing wrong with that ”.