Yoshihide Suga
Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota / Bloomberg
Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota / Bloomberg
The rise in coronavirus cases in Japan has dealt a severe blow to Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s strong public support, which increases the risk of the ruling party replacing him ahead of the October elections.
Suga enjoyed some of the highest approval ratings recorded for a new prime minister in September, when the (ruling) Liberal Democratic Party installed him as leader. But with poll figures dropping so sharply as coronavirus cases increase, questions arise as to whether he could join the long list of Japanese prime ministers forced to leave after short periods.
“They are likely to try to vote for a more popular leader in the September party leadership elections,” said Yu Uchiyama, a political science professor at Tokyo University, who added that “many LDP lawmakers” were concerned about their prospects under the banner of Suga. “The party leader is the face of the lower house elections.”
Support for Suga’s cabinet fell by 7 percentage points compared to the previous month to 33% in a poll published by the Mainichi newspaper on Saturday, compared to 57% of respondents who said they did not support the cabinet. New polls published by Yomiuri and TV Asahi also showed declines.
Suga will be scheduled to deliver a speech on the policy after the opening of the new parliamentary session at 2pm on Monday, when he will be able to establish plans to add sanctions to a law on virus management. The session provides the prime minister with an opportunity to try to regain support for his government ahead of a crucial decision on whether to go ahead and host the Tokyo Olympics, an event that will begin in July and he has said he is determined to to celebrate despite growing opposition. .
Suga, 72, came to power promising to maintain the ultra-light monetary stance and other policies that helped make his predecessor, Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister. At the same time, the farmer’s son pointed out more attention than his longtime boss on paperback issues, such as cell phone charges. He established a dual strategy of strengthening the economy while containing the virus.
The promise of continuity helped send the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to a the all-time high in dollar terms in January, even as the economy retreated from the worst recession on record. But public opinion quickly began to worsen after Suga blocked a group of scholars who had been critical of Abe’s policies from an academic advisory body and an investigation into campaign funding entangled several of the top aides. of the former minister.
At the same time, the government received growing criticism for maintaining its “Go-To” travel campaign to stimulate domestic spending despite the concern it was helping to spread the virus. Suga resisted growing calls from regional leaders to declare a state of emergency, recreating a debate that reduced Abe’s popularity before he resigned due to the return of a chronic illness.
Suga finally declared an emergency for the Tokyo region on January 7 after several record-breaking infection announcements, a move that about 80% of respondents to the public broadcaster NHK said that it was too late. Last week, he added other areas, including the Osaka region, and restricted a part of the country that accounts for more than half of the country’s economic output.
The expansion also bolstered the likelihood that the world’s third-largest economy would fall in reverse this quarter. Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said on Thursday that the current area could be further expanded, depending on the infections.
Nishiki Market in Kyoto, January 14th. The government received increasing criticism for maintaining its “Go-To” travel campaign despite concerns that it was spreading the virus.
Photographer: Kosuke Okahara / Bloomberg
“There was no crisis management strategy under Abe’s administration,” said Tomoaki Iwai, a professor at Tokyo’s Nihon University. “It has stayed in that line and has paid too much attention to the economy and other factors.”
To make matters worse, Japan is not expected to start mass vaccinations until February. And media polls show a growing consensus that the Tokyo Olympics, which were postponed for a year until July 2021 due to the pandemic, should be delayed or canceled altogether, which Suga said. has promised not to allow.
The Prime Minister does not have much time to change things. Japanese law requires a lower house election by October. Suga is serving the final year of Abe’s three-year term and will have to get LDP support to stay after September.
Suga’s party has held power for all of the past 65 years, except for about four, thanks in part to often disorganized opposition. A the merger of the two largest opposition groups last year did not bolster support enough to pose a serious threat, although the ruling coalition could face a small majority.
Former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, one of the two LDP opponents defeated by Suga to secure the party’s leadership post, told BS Asahi on Sunday that he planned to return to office this year. Other possible candidates to replace Suga as LDP leader are Nishimura, Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato and Administrative Reform Minister Taro Kono.
However, these current cabinet members could also be blamed for government failures, Iwai said. Even this could motivate the LDP to resort to an old fort: Abe.
“Since there’s no one else, people can start talking about getting Abe back,” Iwai said. “This is a sad state of affairs.”
– With the assistance of Andrew Davis, Erica Yokoyama and Lily Nonomiya
(Updates with new surveys in the fourth paragraph.)