Implementing a nationwide mask warrant, combined with complementary public health measures, could reduce the spread of coronavirus to essentially zero and have a potential impact of $ 1 trillion on U.S. GDP, according to researchers at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health.
The team’s research “makes it clear that even as vaccines are developed and new variants are being discovered, such as B.1.7.7, the power to protect us remains in our hands, as individuals, ”said co-author Anne Rimoin, a professor of epidemiology at UCLA Fielding School.
“Wearing a mask is one of the simplest, most effective, and most economical ways to do just that, and the history of epidemiology in the last century, which dates back to the 1918-19 flu pandemic and even earlier, has shown that. “. she said.
“Reducing the spread of the disease requires two things: limiting the contacts of infected individuals through physical distancing and other measures and reducing the likelihood of contact transmission,” said co-author Christina Ramirez, a professor of biostatistics at Fielding School. “The preponderance of evidence indicates that mask use reduces contact transmissibility by reducing the transmission of infected respiratory particles in clinical and laboratory contexts.”
The findings, published in the January issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a peer-reviewed journal, were the work of an international team of 19 UCLA specialists and more than a dozen other universities. and research centers, including Oxford University, Cape Town University, Beijing University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and San Francisco University.
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R0, pronounced “R naught,” is a mathematical term that indicates the degree of contagiousness that is an infectious disease. Also known as the playback number. Because an infection is transmitted to new people, it reproduces itself. Reducing reproduction to zero, in turn, could add $ 1 trillion to U.S. GDP, according to the authors.
“When used in conjunction with widespread testing, contact tracking, quarantining anyone who may become infected, hand washing, and physical distancing, masks are an invaluable tool for reducing community transmission,” Rimoin said. “All of these measures, through Its effect on R0 has the potential to reduce the number of infections. As governments abandon closures, keeping transmissions low enough to preserve care capacity will be critical until they can develop and provide vaccines widely “.
To reach their conclusions, the team examined a wide range of new and existing studies and research, including work dating back to a 1910 plague outbreak in northeast China. Even then, according to the researchers, scientists fighting the plague recognized that the cloth mask was “the main means of personal protection.”
There is also ample evidence of the current pandemic, said study co-author Jeremy Howard, a researcher at the University of San Francisco.
“By the end of June 2020, almost 90% of the world’s population lived in regions that had almost universal use of masks or had laws that required them to be used in some public locations and almost all major public health agencies recommended the use of community masks, Howard said, “This is a radical change from the early days of the pandemic, when masks were infrequently recommended or used.”
The researchers came to several conclusions, including:
- Facial masks were 79% effective in preventing transmission, if used by all members of the household before symptoms occurred.
- The use of masks was strongly protective, with a 70% risk reduction for those who always wore a mask when they went out.
- Transmission was 7.5 times higher in countries that did not have a mask mandate.
- The difference between US states with mask mandates and those that did not find it showed that the daily growth rate was 2 percentage points lower in states with mask mandates, estimating that mandates had avoided 230 to 450,000. COVID-19 cases on 22 May.
- Facial masks have a major reducing effect on infections and fatalities, with a potential impact on U.S. GDP of $ 1 trillion if a mask mandate is implemented nationwide.
- Marginal benefit for fabric mask ranging from $ 3,000 to $ 6,000.