MOSCOW (AP) – The return to Russia of Germany by opposition leader Alexei Navalny was marked by chaos and popular outrage and ended, almost predictably, with his arrest.
The Jan. 17 flight from Berlin, where Navalny spent nearly five months recovering from a nerve poisoning, took him and his wife, along with a group of reporters who documented the trip. But the plane was diverted from its destination at Moscow airport to another in the capital, in what was seen as an apparent attempt to thwart the welcome of the crowds waiting for it.
Authorities also arrested him immediately, sparking outrage both at home and abroad. Some Western countries threatened sanctions and his team called for demonstrations across the country on Saturday.
Navalny had prepared his own surprise for his return: a video exposes alleging that a lavish “palace” was built for President Vladimir Putin in the Black Sea using an elaborate corruption scheme. His team posted it on YouTube on Tuesday, and in 48 hours, it had garnered more than 42 million views.
Navalny faces years in prison for a previous conviction claiming he had a political motivation, while political commentators say there are no good options for the Kremlin.
The PA examines its long confrontation with the authorities:
WHO IS ALEXEI NAVALNY?
Navalny, 44, is an anti-corruption advocate and the Kremlin’s fiercest critic. He has survived many opposition figures and is still dissatisfied with the relentless attempts to stop his work.
He has published dozens of condemnatory reports exposing corruption in Putin’s Russia. He has been a galvanizing figure in the mass protests, including the unprecedented demonstrations of 2011-12 provoked by reports of widespread apparatus of a parliamentary election.
Navalny was convicted twice on criminal charges: embezzlement and subsequent fraud. He received suspended sentences of five years and 3 1/2 years. He denounced the convictions for political reasons and the European Court of Human Rights challenged both convictions.
Navalny tried to challenge Putin in the 2018 election, but was banned from running for one of his convictions. Still, he attracted crowds of supporters almost everywhere he went in the country.
Frequently arrested, he has served several seasons in prison on charges related to leading protests. In 2017, an attacker threw a green antiseptic liquid in his face, damaging his eyesight. He was also hospitalized in 2019 after an alleged intoxication in prison.
None of this has stopped him. In August 2020 he fell ill while on a domestic flight to Siberia and the pilot quickly landed in Omsk, where he was hospitalized. His supporters managed to blow him up in Berlin, where he was in a coma for more than two weeks and was diagnosed with poisoning by a Soviet-era nervous agent, a complaint the Kremlin denied.
After recovering, Navalny posted a recording of a phone call he said he made to a man who was allegedly a member of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), who allegedly poisoned him. The FSB dismissed the recording as fake, but still surprised many both at home and abroad.
Navalny promised to return to Russia and continue his work, while authorities threatened to arrest him.
WHY DID NAVALNY BACK IN EVERYTHING?
Navalny said he did not leave Russia by election, but “ended up in Germany in an intensive care unit.” He said he never considered staying abroad.
“I don’t think it’s right for Alexei Navalny to call for a revolution from Berlin,” he explained in an interview in October, referring to himself in the third person. “If I do something, I want to share the risks with the people who work in my office.”
Analysts say it would have been impossible for Navalny to remain relevant as an opposition leader outside of Russia. “Staying abroad, becoming a political emigrant, would mean the death of a public politician,” said Masha Lipman, an independent political analyst.
Nikolai Petrov, a senior researcher on Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia program, echoed his sentiment, saying: “Active, bright people who could take some real action and run in elections … while they were in the country, once in abroad, they end up out of real connection with people. “
WHY NOW IS NAVALNY FACING PRESSURE?
His suspended sentence from the 2014 conviction entailed a probationary period that would expire in December 2020. Authorities said Navalny was undergoing periodic face-to-face searches with police officers.
During the last days of Navalny’s probationary period, Russia’s penitentiary service placed him on a wanted list, accusing him of not appearing for such checks, even when he was convalescing in Germany. Officials have asked the court to serve the full sentence of 3 and a half years. Upon his return, Navalny was detained for 30 days, with a view to reviewing his sentence scheduled for February 2.
Earlier this month, Russia’s Investigative Committee opened another criminal investigation into him on fraud charges, alleging that he embezzled donations to his Foundation to fight corruption. If convicted, he could face up to ten years in prison.
NAVALNY THREATENS KREMLIN?
Putin never calls Navalny by name, and the state media portrays him as an unimportant blogger. But it has managed to spread its reach outside of Moscow through its popular YouTube accounts, including this week’s one that filed complaints about the massive Black Sea estate.
Its regional office infrastructure created across the country in 2017 has helped it challenge the government by mobilizing voters. In 2018, Navalny launched a project called Smart Voting that is designed to promote candidates most likely to defeat those of the Kremlin’s dominant United Russia party.
In 2019, the project helped opposition candidates win 20 of 45 seats on Moscow city council and last year’s regional elections caused United Russia to lose its majority in three city legislatures.
Navalny has pledged to use the strategy during this year’s parliamentary elections, which will determine who controls the State Duma in 2024. That’s when Putin’s current term expires and he is expected to seek re-election. to last year’s constitutional reforms.
Analysts believe Navalny is able to influence this key vote, reason enough to leave him out of the picture.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Analysts say Navalny’s return was a major blow to Putin’s image and left the Kremlin with a dilemma.
Putin has worked mainly since his residence during the coronavirus outbreak, and the widespread perception that he has stayed away from the public does not compare well with Navalny’s daring return to the country where he was poisoned and arrested. dir Petrov de Chatham House.
“It doesn’t matter if people support Navalny or not; they see these two images and Putin loses, ”he said.
Commentators say there is no good option for the Kremlin: imprisoning Navalny for a long time will make him a martyr and could provoke mass protests, while letting him go threatens parliamentary elections.
So far, repression has only helped Navalny, “and now even the loyalists who think they are, if not on their side, certainly not on the side of the poisoners and persecutors,” Alexander Baunov of the Moscow Carnegie Center wrote in an article recently.
All eyes are on what is happening at the protests scheduled for Saturday, Petrov said. In 2013, Navalny was quickly released from prison after a five-year sentence for embezzlement after a large crowd gathered near the Kremlin.
Putin’s government has become much tougher with dissent, so mass protests are unlikely to lead to Navalny’s immediate release, Petrov said. But the Kremlin is still afraid that a hard movement could destabilize the situation, and the magnitude of the rallies could indicate how the public would react to Navalny for a long time in prison.
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Associated Press journalist Kostya Manenkov contributed.