UK health experts have advice for the US on fighting the mutant variant

LONDON – Health experts warn that even with restrictions, the United States is likely to have difficulty halting the spread of a highly infectious variant of coronavirus, stressing the importance of taking aggressive action immediately to protect as many people as possible. possible.

The variant, discovered in the United Kingdom and known as B.1.1.7., Has an unusually high number of mutations and is associated with more efficient and faster transmission.

There is no evidence that the mutant strain is associated with more severe disease outcomes. However, as it is more transmissible, additional people are likely to become infected, which could lead to a higher number of serious cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities.

Scientists first detected this mutation in September. The variant of concern has since been detected in at least 44 countries, including the United States, which has reported its presence in 12 states.

Last week, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned that the modeled trajectory of the variant in the United States “presents rapid growth in early 2021, becoming the predominant variant in March.”

The forecast comes as the UK struggles to control the impact of its exponential growth.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced closure measures in England on January 5, instructing people to “stay home” as they were ordered to close most schools, bars and restaurants. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have introduced similar measures.

The restrictions, which are expected to remain in England until at least mid-February, were introduced to try to reduce pressure on the nation’s already stressed hospitals amid rising Covid revenues.

Government figures released on Thursday said Britain recorded 37,892 new infections with 1,290 deaths. A day earlier, the UK recorded a record high death toll for Covid, when data showed 1,820 more people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid.

Dr Deepti Gurdasani, a clinical epidemiologist at Queen Mary University in London, stressed that from the UK’s response it was clear that unless aggressive action was taken immediately, “the variant will spread rapidly geographically as well as the ‘increased frequency in places where established in the community’.

Gurdasani cited the findings of a closely followed study led by researchers at Imperial College London that showed “no evidence of a decline” in Covid rates between 6 and 15 January, although England is found closed, “suggesting that even with restrictions it is difficult to contain it effectively due to greater transmissibility.”

Researchers in the study, published on Thursday, warned that UK health services would continue under “extreme pressure” and that the cumulative death toll would rise rapidly unless the prevalence of the virus in the community was substantially reduced.

“All this means that the containment window is very short. Given the lower active surveillance in the United States, the variant may have spread higher than expected and the containment policy should reflect that,” Gurdasani said.

“This means strict containment efforts not only where the variant has been identified, but in all regions where it could have spread. And active surveillance with contact tracking to identify all possible cases, maintaining strict restrictions to break. transmission chains “.

To date, the UK has recorded the fifth highest number of confirmed covida infections and related deaths in the world.

On his second day in office, President Joe Biden announced comprehensive measures to combat the virus, including the establishment of a Covid test board to increase testing, address supply shortfalls, and direct funds to minority communities. most affected.

Biden said executive orders showed “help is on the way.” He also warned that it would take months “to change that.”

“The key to all of this is to reduce interpersonal interactions and the strategy has to be broadly the same as what has been done before, what has worked elsewhere and then some,” said Simon Clarke, an associate professor at cell microbiology at the University of Reading.

Clarke said, for example, U.S. states should consider reducing the number of people in commercial or leisure settings, and it may be necessary to close bars or restrict their schedules, as there are studies that show that the risk of transmission is greater inside.

“None of these things we do to protect ourselves eliminates risk, none of which makes us a Covid test, all it does is reduce the chances of getting infected,” Clarke said.

“The virus has just retreated with this evolutionary step and it will now be even harder to achieve the same level of protection.”

“Everyone wants to believe that vaccines are the solution and they will make a big difference, but it’s not the whole solution,” said Kit Yates, a tenured professor of mathematical biology at the University of Bath and author of The Math of Life and death “.

Yates said the new U.S. administration should do everything possible to deploy Covid vaccines “as quickly as possible” to relieve pressure on health facilities, but insisted that this should be part of a multiple focus.

Some other measures that U.S. states should consider, Yates said, include encouraging people to work from home when possible, maintaining physical distance, improving ventilation within the school environment, getting them to Children wear masks, provide financial support to those who isolate themselves and use effective testing protocols.

“These are boring, horrible, non-pharmaceutical measures that no one wants, but the alternative is too scary to think about.”