LONDON (AP) – There is some evidence that a new variant of the coronavirus first identified in the south-east of England carries a higher risk of death than the original strain, the British government’s top scientific adviser said on Friday, though who stressed that the data is uncertain.
Patrick Vallance said at a news conference that “there is evidence that there is a greater risk for those who have the new variant.”
He said that for a man over 60 with the original version of the virus, “the average risk is that, unfortunately, for every 1,000 people who became infected about ten would die.”
“With the new variant, for 1,000 infected people, approximately 13 or 14 people could be expected to die,” he said.
But Vallance stressed that “the evidence is not yet strong” and more research is needed.
In contrast to this uncertainty, he said, there is growing confidence that the variant is transmitted more easily than the original coronavirus strain. He said it appears to be between 30% and 70% more transmissible.
Maria Van Kerkhove, technical head of COVID-19 at the World Health Organization, said studies were being conducted on the transmission and severity of new virus variants.
He said so far that “they have not seen the severity increase,” but that greater transmission could lead to “an overloaded health care system” and therefore more deaths.
Evidence that the new variant is more deadly is found in a document prepared by a group of scientists advising the government on new respiratory viruses, based on several studies.
British scientists said that while early analyzes suggested the strain, first identified in September, did not cause more serious illnesses, several more recent ones suggest it could be. However, the death toll is relatively small and case mortality rates are affected by many things, including the care patients receive and their age and health, beyond having COVID-19.
British scientists stress that the information so far has great limitations and that they do not know to what extent the cases included in the analyzes of what is happening across the country or elsewhere are representative.
One analysis found no increased risk of death among people admitted to a hospital with the new strain. In another, the probabilities of being admitted to a hospital with the new strain compared to the previously dominant one were not different.
There is a lag in the notification of hospitalizations after infection and a further lag from infection to death, so officials expect to learn more in several weeks.
Paul Hunter, Professor of Medicine at the University of East Anglia, said that “there are quite a few differences in the increased risk of death between different analyzes, although most, but not all, show a higher risk. of death, ”he said. .
Ian Jones, a professor of virology at the University of Reading, said that “the data are limited and the conclusions are preliminary. However, it is true that it is possible to increase the mortality rate with a virus that has increased its role in transmission.
British officials say they are confident the vaccines authorized for use against COVID-19 will be effective against the new strain identified in the country.
But Vallance said scientists are concerned that variants identified in Brazil and South Africa may be more resistant to vaccines, adding that more research is needed.
Concerns about recently identified variants have triggered a number of new travel restrictions around the world. Many countries have closed their borders to travelers from Britain and the UK has stopped flights from Brazil and South Africa.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said there could be more restrictions.
“We may need to go further to protect our borders,” he said.
Britain has recorded 95,981 deaths among people who tested positive for coronavirus, the highest confirmed total in Europe.
The UK is currently blocked from trying to stem the latest wave of the coronavirus outbreak. Pubs, restaurants, entertainment venues and many shops are closed and people have to stay home.
The number of new infections has begun to decline, but deaths remain agonizingly high, averaging more than 1,000 a day, and the number of hospitalized patients is 80 percent higher than the first peak of the pandemic in the spring.
Johnson, who has often been accused of making overly optimistic predictions about the relaxation of coronavirus restrictions, seemed bleak.
“We will have to live with the coronavirus in one way or another for a long time,” he said, adding that “it is an open question” when measures can be eased.
“At this stage you have to be very, very careful,” he said.
Vallance agreed,
“I don’t think this virus is going anywhere,” he said. “It probably will be forever.”
___ Chief Medical Writer AP Marilynn Marchione and Medical Writer Maria Cheng contributed to this story.
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