Credit: Jacob Norlund via Flickr
Mother Nature has been in a rare mood this week, giving constant advice about her storm track and how much snow she could deliver Saturday in southern Minnesota. In fact, we’re talking four or five days in a row with no major changes to the forecast, which seems like a rarity these days.
Now the question is whether the forecast will stay true when the snow ends up falling.
How long can Minnesota wait? The National Weather Service continues to forecast the highest amounts (4-7 inches of spongy snow) falling along the Minnesota River Valley in an area generally between Redwood Falls and Mankato, with up to 7 inches also possible south of Mankato. along the interstate corridor 90.
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The official forecast for the twin cities is 3-5 inches, although only 2 to 4 inches is forecast for the northern suburbs.
Credit: NWS Twin Cities
The snow is expected to move to southwestern Minnesota at 8 a.m. and head east, reaching the Twin Cities metropolitan area in the early afternoon. The snow should be completely out of here when most people wake up on Sunday morning.
Credit: NWS Twin Cities
Then take a look at the future simulated radar of the HRRR model, which shows the bluest shades of blue (indicating more intense snow) in southern Minnesota.
Winds will not be a major problem, so blowing and drifting is not a huge concern with this storm, but the weather service believes the roads will be covered in snow, which will lead to some dangerous travel conditions. Here’s a review of the severity of winter storms, which shows moderate travel problems in twin cities and where the highest snow totals are forecast in southern Minnesota.
Credit: NWS Twin Cities
This week we talked a lot about snow rates: liquids and the National Meteorological Service’s Twin Cities office says its predictions are based primarily on a 15: 1 ratio, meaning for every inch of liquid there could be have 15 inches of snow.
This storm is not expected to spill an inch of liquid, but will release between 0.20 and 0.50 inches, with the highest amounts (0.40 inches) along the Minnesota River Valley and south. -Central Minnesota. Half an inch of liquid in a 15: 1 ratio would land 7.5 inches of snow, while half an inch of liquid in an 18: 1 ratio would drop 9 inches.
The following explains the amount of liquid projected by the latest HRRR model, which if accurate, would put between 3 and 5 inches of snow most of the subway, as predicted by the weather service. Do the math for your area by multiplying the following decimal numbers by 15. (Example: 0.4 times 15 makes 6 inches of snow).
Credit: Pivotal Weather