WASHINGTON (AP) – President Joe Biden faces the political risk of great ambition.
As one of his first acts, Biden offered an immigration review of immigration last week, this would provide a path to U.S. citizenship for the approximately 11 million people who are illegally in the United States. It would also codify provisions that would eliminate some of President Donald Trump’s hard-line policies, including trying to end the existing protected legal status for many immigrants brought to the United States when they were children and measures contrary to asylum rules.
It is precisely the kind of measure that many Latino activists have desired, especially after the harsh approach of the Trump era. But it must compete with Biden’s other legislative goals, including a $ 1.9 trillion plan to fight coronavirus, an infrastructure package that promotes green energy initiatives and a “public option” to expand the coronavirus. medical insurance.
In the best of circumstances, adopting such comprehensive legislation would be difficult. But in a closely divided Congress, it might be impossible. And that makes Latinos, the nation’s fastest-growing voting bloc, worried that Biden and congressional leaders could reduce deals that weaken the finished product. too much – or stop happening.
“This cannot be a situation in which a visionary bill (a messaging bill) is simply sent to Congress and nothing happens,” said Marielena Hincapié, executive director of the National Center for Immigration Law. , which advocates for low-income immigrants. “There is an expectation that they will deliver and that there is a mandate now for Biden to be an unforgiving pro-immigrant and have a political imperative to do so, and the Democrats are doing the same.”
If Latinos finally feel betrayed, the political consequences for Democrats could be lasting. The 2020 elections provided several warning signs that, despite Democratic efforts to build a multiracial coalition, Latin support could be at risk.
Some Latin activists saw Biden already skeptical of his association with former President Barack Obama, who was called the “chief deportee.” by the record number of immigrants who were removed from the country during his administration. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont defeated Biden in last year’s Nevada primary and the California primary, which served as the first barometers of the Latin vote.
In his run against Trump, Biden garnered the support of 63% of Latino voters compared to 35% of Trump, according to AP VoteCast, a poll of more than 110,000 voters across the country. But Trump narrowed the margin a bit in some swing states, like Nevada, and also received a bump from Latino men, 39% of whom supported him compared to 33% of Latino women.
Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate since 1996 to lead Arizona, in part due to strong base support. of Mexican-American groups opposed to the GOP’s strict immigration policies dating back decades. But he lost to Florida for a lower performance in his largest Hispanic county, Miami-Dade, where the anti-socialism message of the Trump campaign resonated among Cubans and some American Venezuelans.
Biden also fell short in Texas, although running mate Kamala Harris spent valuable, late campaign time there.. The ticket lost some sparsely populated but heavily populated Mexican counties along the Mexican border, where law enforcement agencies are the main employers and resonated with the Republican Party’s zero-tolerance immigration policy.
There were more warning signs for House Democrats, who lost four seats in California and two in South Florida while failing to make it to Texas. Rising Hispanic populations reflected in new U.S. Census figures may see Texas and Florida win congressional districts ahead of midterm elections in 2022, which could make correcting the problem even more urgent for Democrats .
Urgency is not lost on Biden. He spent months in private telling immigration advocates that major revisions would be at the top of his to-do list. As vice president, he noted that the Obama administration used larger Congressional majorities to accelerate the passage of a financial crisis stimulus bill and its health care signing law, while letting the review fade. of immigration.
“It means so much to us that a new president proposes bold and visionary immigration reform on day 1. Not on day 2. Not on day 3. Not a year later,” said New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez. main sponsor of his chamber. the Biden package.
Menendez was part of a bipartisan immigration plan advocated by senators from the “gang of eight” that collapsed in 2013. Obama resorted to executive action to offer legal status to millions of young immigrants. President George W. Bush also pushed for an immigration package (with an eye on increasing Latino support for Republicans before the 2008 election) just to see how it failed in Congress.
Menendez acknowledged that the latest bill will have to find the support of at least 10 Republican senators to remove the 60-vote hurdle to get the word out and that “there is no illusion” how difficult this will be.
Former Rep. Carlos Curbelo, a moderate Republican from Florida, said Biden could find some support from the Republican Party, but will likely have to settle for far less than what is in his original proposal.
“Many Republicans are concerned about the major challenges,” Curbelo said, adding that Trump and his supporters advocating for immigration crackdown mean there is “a political danger to Republicans.”
But he also said Democrats could alienate part of their own base by appearing to prioritize the needs of the people of the country illegally over those of troubled U.S. citizens and therefore “appear to exceed” from the perspective of swing and independent voters “.
In fact, Democrats have not always aligned themselves universally behind a review of immigration, arguing that it could lead to an influx of cheap labor that harms American workers. Some of the party’s senators joined Republicans to overthrow Bush’s bill.
Still, Latinos have not forgotten past immigration failures and have often blamed Democrats more than Republicans.
Chuck Roca, head of Nuestro PAC, which spent $ 4 million on ads to raise Biden in Arizona, said that while Hispanics have traditionally tended to support Democrats, it has begun to see trends over the past decade. in which more people register as independent or without party affiliation. These voters can still recover, he said, but only if Latinos see real change in important issues like immigration “even if it’s in pieces.”
“They have to do something if they want to start changing the loss of Latino voters,” said Rocha, who led the spread of Latino voters in Sanders ’presidential campaign. “They have to do everything they can now to get the Latins back.”
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Associated Press writer Alan Fram contributed to this report.