Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was hoping to declare victory over the pandemic ahead of the March 23 elections, but the new fast-spreading COVID-19 variants have shattered those hopes.
Why it’s important: Netanyahu’s main political vulnerability is the treatment of the pandemic. He acknowledged that his survey numbers will be directly related to vaccination rates, new infections and deaths, as well as his ability to reopen the economy.
He had wanted to base his electoral impetus in the world-leading vaccination campaign in Israel, which has already seen 21% of the population over the age of 16 get both doses, including 70% in the highest priority groups (medical workers and the elderly). 60 years).
- But Israel is also in the midst of the worst wave of COVID-19 to date, with daily death tolls exceeding all-time highs. The capacity of the medical system extends near a breaking point.
- Four weeks of blockade have only begun to slow the rate of new Israeli cases, which remains one of the highest in the world, adjusted for population. Israeli officials say the rapid spread is due to new virus variants.
- The government is likely to extend the closure for another week or two.
Between lines: The infection rate is particularly high in ultra-Orthodox communities, which have largely failed to comply with the blocking rules and have kept schools open even though they were closed elsewhere.
- Netanyahu has faced harsh criticism for not enforcing the blockade among the ultra-Orthodox community, which is an important part of his right-wing political bloc.
- When police tried to enforce the closure in recent days, violent riots broke out in ultra-Orthodox cities. This only generated more criticism of Netanyahu.
- A Channel 12 poll released on Tuesday found that 61% of Israelis – and 52% of right-wing voters – want ultra-Orthodox parties to be excluded from the next coalition government.
The state of play: Recent polls showed Netanyahu’s Likud party stable with 29-30 seats, with public praise over the vaccination campaign offset by criticism over the blockade and rising death toll.
What follows: Netanyahu’s broader political bloc fails to reach the majority of the 61 seats needed to form the next coalition. Without a positive change in COVID-19 numbers in March, it will be difficult for him to get there.