There is a wild shuffle at the helm of the COVID-19 vaccine line, with the EU discussing export bans and legal action to ensure supplies are accelerated in the coming months.
The reverse: The back of the line is likely to extend until 2023 and beyond. Hardly any low-income country has managed to start distributing seriously, and total vaccinations across mainland sub-Saharan Africa are currently in the dozens.
Leading the news: The EU is expected to approve a third vaccine from AstraZeneca tomorrow. But European leaders are furious that initial supplies are much lower than expected.
- The EU is now pressuring the Anglo-Swedish company to supply it with doses produced in the United Kingdom – which had a previously established agreement – to fill the deficit.
- The EU has managed to vaccinate only 2% of its collective population to date, while 11% in the UK The shortage has forced Madrid to stop distribution, and Paris will remain the same.
- Brussels is considering a ban on exporting doses produced to the EU, including the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine.
The state of play: The fact that rich countries not only buy most of the supply of approved vaccines, but also struggle to deploy them efficiently, is a fact that hurts the countries that lag behind.
- Some pay a premium on small-scale bilateral agreements, often for vaccines from China and Russia.
- The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicts that vaccines will only be widely available in the richest countries in the world this year, while many others (Brazil, India, Egypt) will reach widespread vaccination next year and most countries with low incomes will wait until 2023 or beyond.
What they say: “What we are seeing now globally is not what we had expected,” says Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Africa Regional Director.
- “It would be deeply unfair for the most vulnerable Africans to be forced to wait for vaccines while protecting lower-risk subgroups in richer countries,” he said.
- Barry Bloom, a public health professor at Harvard, says it more bluntly: “Right now, it’s the law of the jungle.”
African health authorities are waiting vaccine distribution will begin across the continent in March, initially with the approximately 3 million doses needed to cover medical workers.
- The urgency only grows as cases on the continent increase and new variants spread. “The second wave is here with revenge and our systems are overflowing,” said John Nkengasong, director of the African CDC.
- The global COVAX initiative hopes to cover 20% of the population of all countries by the end of 2021 and the African Union is trying to complement it with additional orders.
- If all these pieces are put in place, the WHO says 30-35% of Africans could be vaccinated by the end of the year.
What to see: “To be successful, we must reach a 60% target within two years. If we don’t, COVID will become endemic to the mainland,” Nkengasong told reporters on Wednesday.
- The other side: NIAID Director Anthony Fauci has set a 70-85% target in the U.S. this summer.
- By numbers: The United States, the EU, the United Kingdom and Canada have bought at least 2.5 billion combined doses, enough to vaccinate all their residents (with two doses, if necessary) and there are still around 1 billion left.
The big picture: The prospects of rich countries depend in part on what happens in the poorest countries, as new variants of the virus originating anywhere in the world could end up causing new international outbreaks.
- “We are in an arms race, except it is not an arms race, it is a race between vaccination and mutation,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said this week at the Davos Agenda virtual conference .
Israel, which has advanced rapidly from the rest of the world in terms of vaccinations, it is also assuming it exceeds millions of overdoses.
- The government plans to cover the citizens of Israel and then “see what we can do for our closest neighbors,” the Health Minister told FT.
- Israel has been criticized for its refusal to provide vaccines to Palestinians living in the occupied territories, even though Jewish settlers have been vaccinated there.
Countries on the periphery of the EU they also expect to access leftover doses.
- Ukraine, for example, has so far only managed to sign a relatively small agreement for a Chinese vaccine of questionable efficacy.
- Otherwise, the country depends on COVAX and any agreement that may be reached with European producers and governments.
- The EIU places Ukraine among the countries that will likely wait until 2023 for widespread coverage, along with parts of South Asia, Central and South America and almost all of sub-Saharan Africa.
Canada has secured more doses in relation to its population than any other country, and is committed to giving those who do not need COVAX.
- But Prime Minister Justin Trudeau – while emphasizing “equitable distribution” – has declined to say whether donations will be made before Canada has vaccinated its entire population.
Meanwhile, President Biden has raised the hopes of global health experts and the WHO in reviewing Donald Trump’s decision to reject COVAX.
- Bloom considers it an “important factor,” although Biden has yet to make any specific commitments in terms of dosage or funding.
- He hopes that world leaders will see the current dispute in Europe as an indication that a centralized and equitable structure is needed for global distribution. But, he adds, “I’m not optimistic.”
In depth: Israel’s COVID crisis deepens even as the vaccination rate increases