When it comes to negotiating Nolan Arenado, think of Giancarlo Stanton.
The Rockies have once again committed to the Cardinals to deal with the third star base, Ken Rosenthal first reported to The Athletic.
There are so many obstacles to completing this type of agreement, heightened by the financial uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This has led, among other things, to the Central League Central being in a talent dump close to the group where players like Josh Bell, Yu Darvish, Raisel Iglesias, Jon Lester, Joe Musgrove, Jose Quintana, Kyle Schwarber, Jameson Taillon and probably at some point soon Trevor Bauer has left. On Thursday, the Cardinals reached an agreement to retain Adam Wainwright in a $ 8 million one-year deal. It doesn’t sound like much. But for now, it was four times more than the rest of the joint division had spent on free agency before Joc Pederson reached a deal with the Cubs on Friday for a year and about $ 5 million.
So St. Louis may decide that if the rest of the division is in retreat, why take on Arenado’s long-term risk? The division could be won without him.
But let’s imagine we’re at a time when, you know, teams really cared about getting better. In this scenario, there is a plan for this type of trade and the cardinals and Arenado’s agent know about it.
Joel Wolfe is the agent of both Arenado and Stanton. After the 2017 season, the Cardinals had established an agreement with the Marlins for Stanton, who invoked his non-exchange clause. Stanton’s preference was to get to his hometown of the Dodgers, but he was good with the Yankees. Arenado would also love to get to his hometown, the Dodgers, but would be fine with the Cardinals.
Stanton signed a 13-year, $ 325 million contract with the team that hired him in the second round (Marlins). Arenado signed an eight-year, $ 260 million deal with the team that drafted him in the second round (Rockies). The two bonded long-term with the franchise promising they would spend to earn around the now well-paid stars. But they were both smart enough to know that this was not the history of the organization. Therefore, neither of them could be surprised when this did not happen. Players could not refuse this type of guaranteed money, despite the history of the franchise. So these offers had the feel of an NBA situation where the star takes the guaranteed money and then forces him out of town when he gets frustrated with the organization (you noticed James Harden in Brooklyn, for example?).
Stanton was ten years old and $ 295 million remaining. The Marlins were desperate to get the most out of their salary. Thus, they agreed to take on the remaining two years for Starlin Castro for $ 22 million, eating 30 million if Stanton did not invoke his exclusion after the 2020 campaign and accepted two lottery prospects far from the majors.
In all, the Yanks saved $ 52 million. The equivalent would be that the Cardinals save about $ 35 million in six years, up from $ 199 million left in Arenado. Viously, obviously, this is just a guide. Stanton was coming off an MVP season, but had less defensive value and 10 years left to finish. Arenado will play at 30 in 2021, but is coming off his worst season and a shoulder injury. Still, he remains one of the best third defenders in history and, from 2015 to 2019, has finished in the top eight of the NL MVP.
The Cardinals have a lot of Castro-like contracts to compensate. Miles Mikolas (three years at $ 47.25 million), Matt Carpenter (one year, $ 20.5 million) and Dexter Fowler (one year, $ 14.5 million) have no trade clauses they should give up. Carlos Martinez (one year, $ 12 million) and Andrew Miller (one year, $ 12 million) would not, but would receive a $ 1 million allocation bonus. Any of these, individually or jointly, would provide amortization to Arenado.
The Rockies, in theory, could do what the Red Sox had just done by taking on most of Adam Ottavino’s contract in order to gain access to prospect Frank German. Colorado can accept more contracts or eat more dollars to access better prospects. For example, the Cardinals can build a trade around one of the best third base prospects in the game, also coinciding with the first name Nolan – Nolan Gorman.
Arenado may choose not to participate after the 2021 season, but is likely to withdraw to facilitate trade. If so, the Rockies may agree to eat a portion of the offer, as with Stanton, if the deactivation is not activated.