Dr. Michele Carbone, of the Cancer Center and Department of Pathology at the University of Hawaii, and an international team of colleagues recently wrote an article – a sort of summary of the state of research – for the “Journal of Thoracic Oncology ”that provides reliable, easy-to-understand information about COVID-19 that is important and cannot be easily verified in the circus environment of our media.
Here are some highlights:
First, the correct terminology: the name of the new coronavirus is “SARS-CoV-2” and it causes a disease called “COVID-19” in approximately 30% of infected people.
Masks and social distancing help prevent infection, but the only way to make sure you won’t get the virus is to stay home and have no visitors. It’s that simple.
But that would require us to sacrifice our normal life routines, such as spending time with friends and family, going to restaurants and malls, doing our work in a social environment with co-workers, the things that define our lives.
Is it worth it? How to manage risk?
Infections occur almost exclusively indoors
The virus floats in the air like an aerosol. Open the windows and the risk of infection decreases dramatically, according to Carbone and colleagues.
The more crowded the environment, the higher the risk of infection; for example, the risk is very high on a bus full of people with air conditioning and closed windows. However, the crowded environment of a modern airplane is relatively safer, they say, because cabin air is filtered and completely exchanged with outside air every 2 or 3 minutes.
Because we congregate indoors with the windows closed during the cold winter months, the risk of infection is greater and more likely then.
Unwanted consequences
We are currently diverting our attention and resources to trying to contain SARS-CoV-2 infections, which in turn reduce efforts to prevent and treat cancer and other critical illnesses. This could cost many lives.
Carbone and colleagues point out that the National Cancer Institute (NCI) estimated that this could be responsible for approximately 10,000 additional deaths from colon and breast cancer, as early detection of cancer for these diseases has been largely suspended.
In addition, the NCI estimate did not consider other types of cancer and assumed that everything would return to normal in January 2021, which did not happen. The actual number of collateral deaths can be much higher.
Misleading statistics
According to Carbone and colleagues, approximately 70 percent of SARS-CoV-2 infections are asymptomatic, but the tests are aimed primarily at people who have symptoms; consequently, we are underestimating the magnitude of infections.
We are also overestimating the deaths caused by COVID-19, they say. Anyone who dies who has tested positive for COVID-19 is considered a victim of the virus. We do not determine if the virus was the leading cause of death.
Three out of four seriously ill patients are men and most fatalities occur in the elderly with pre-existing conditions. Deaths from COVID-19 in children under 40 without pre-existing conditions are very rare.
Vaccines
Three vaccines have been available recently.
Astra-Zeneca produced the “Oxford” vaccine, which is currently only distributed in the UK.
Pfizer and Moderna have produced an RNA vaccine. These vaccines are available in the US and Europe. RNA vaccines use a new technology that had not previously been applied to mass vaccinations.
Antibodies are the proteins produced by the immune system that protect us from infection. Approximately 95 percent of vaccinated subjects have developed IgG antibodies that should protect them from the virus.
But these vaccines have been tested primarily on healthy adults under the age of 60. The few older individuals who have received the vaccines produced fewer IgG antibodies.
Vaccines have not been tested in children.
These vaccines will not stop the spread of COVID-19
IgG antibodies circulate in our blood and protect us from a systemic infection, that is, from the spread of viruses inside the body and our disease.
Another type of antibody, called “IgA,” protects the mucous surfaces of the body, such as the nose, pharynx, and intestine.
At present, no clinical trials are being conducted with vaccines that produce IgA antibodies. The vaccines being analyzed only produce IgG antibodies.
This means that the SARS-CoV-2 virus can still infect the mucous surfaces of vaccinated people.
This should not be a problem for vaccinated people. IgG antibodies from their vaccines should stop the spread of the virus inside the body, but the virus that grows on the mucosal surfaces of the body can spread to other people.
However, infected people produce IgA and IgG antibodies, so once they recover from the infection, they are “safe.” Reinfections are extremely rare.
When more than 60 percent of the population has antibodies that protect them from the virus, viral spread will slow because the virus will not be able to find susceptible targets easily. This is called “herd immunity.”
No one knows how long the herd’s immunity will last, but for SARS, caused by a closely related virus, it lasts several years.
Children
According to Carbone and colleagues, the main or only reason to vaccinate children is to protect adults. Children (except those with some serious illness or genetic condition) generally do not get sick with COVID-19.
COVID-19 vaccines cause pain, fever, and headaches that last for several days in most adult recipients. We don’t know what the side effects would be on children.
Will people vaccinate their children knowing these things?
When will it end?
The fact that the vaccines currently being tested do not produce IgA antibodies would not be a big problem if everyone were vaccinated, but this is unlikely to happen.
Therefore, these vaccines alone will not be eliminated from the virus in the immediate future.
SARS-CoV-2 spreads rapidly. Ten to 20 percent of tests worldwide turn out to be positive.
Therefore, according to Carbone and colleagues, a combination of vaccines and infections should produce immunity in the herd soon, possibly in June, when COVID-19 will decrease and hopefully disappear soon after.
Meanwhile, more effective treatments are being developed; therefore, the mortality rate for COVID-19 should decrease in the coming months.
Nolan Rappaport he was detailed in the Judicial Committee of the House as an expert in executive immigration law of the executive branch for three years. He subsequently served as an immigration advisor to the Subcommittee on Immigration, Border Security and Claims for four years. Prior to working on the Judicial Committee, he wrote decisions for the Immigration Appeals Board for 20 years. Follow his blog a https://nolanrappaport.blogspot.com.