It will be seven years before the COVID-19 pandemic ends worldwide, if vaccine distribution continues at its current pace, according to a Bloomberg calculation.
The media, which said it built the “largest database” of COVID-19 inoculations given around the world, restricted the figures and found it could take nearly a decade to reach immunity. of the herd if the distribution does not increase by vaccine dose.
Dr. Anthony Fauci has said that 70-85 percent of the population will need the vaccine to achieve herd immunity, and while the United States is on track to achieve that goal in the new year in 2022, it could pass ten years in countries like Canada. its current pace.
More than 119 million doses have been distributed worldwide, but the Bloomberg tracker shows that some countries, mostly wealthy Western locals, get 75% coverage much faster than others.
For example, Israel is on track to see 75% coverage in the spring, but it may take four years in Portugal, seven years in China and Latvia nearly nine years to reach herd immunity if vaccine distributions do not change.
The calculations are, of course, “volatile,” Bloomberg explained, especially with the launch a few months ago and still affected by supply disruptions.
Canada’s vaccination rate has been halved recently after the country faced delays in shipments, but as long as its contracts to buy more doses per person than any other country are maintained, they will not be caught in the lurch. ‘pandemic hell for a decade.
The media noted that the pace is expected to accelerate around the world as more and more punctures become available: they noted the major vaccine manufacturing centers in India and Mexico and said the production is just beginning and only a third of countries have started vaccination campaigns.
The Bloomberg calculator is based on two doses for full vaccination and will be modified once the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is available, which requires only one dose. Although the inoculations have not been approved for children, Bloomberg included children in its calculation because they too can become infected and transmit the virus.
The calculator does not explain any level of natural immunity experienced by those who have previously had the virus; the CDC has said some immunity is offered after an infection, but they are unclear how long it lasts.
A Mount Sinai study published last week on the MedRxiv prepress server found that reinfection is “common” among young people, especially those who had very mild cases or showed no symptoms when they had the error. The researchers involved urged governments to include young people, previously infected, in the distribution of vaccines.
Another study published this week suggested that those who have had the virus may only need one dose of vaccine.