The Mets had a Trevor Bauer budget. Now, go back to the original plan.
Steve Cohen and Sandy Alderson had previously declared this low season the desire to keep payroll below the $ 210 million luxury tax threshold. But Bauer saw the opportunity: a high-end talent at a time when few teams were voluntarily engaged at the top of the market. They theorized that if Bauer were his 2020 NL Cy Young version, he would change the Mets ’trajectory from contender to something more immediate.
Thus, the Mets made the biggest offer: three years at $ 105 million. The average annual value of $ 35 million would have projected them beyond the tax threshold before addressing any other low-season issues or budgeting for business deadline additions. Bauer earned $ 3 million less in total from the Dodgers to win: his hometown, a more stable franchise, safer winner, and cutting-edge launch store.
Without Bauer, the Mets return to their previous concept. So if you’re thinking about how the Mets could spend $ 105 million overall, $ 40 million this year (which would have been Bauer’s 2021 Mets salary) or exceed the threshold, it’s unlikely. They currently have 22 players under major league contracts worth $ 162 million. Complete the list, add the benefits formula, and set aside money for calls and seasonal business, and the Mets have maybe $ 25 million before they cross the threshold. A relative aside: the Mets, with Cohen’s money, shouldn’t treat the threshold as a de facto salary cap. If they have to go to improve the team rightly, they should.
Some thoughts on where the team should go:
1. Talk to Jacob deGrom. Around the Mets it is understood that deGrom may not be so happy with his contract and that the Mets offered more to someone from Bauer who had never done anything for them. DeGrom was signed under strange circumstances. He was long represented by Brodie Van Wagenen, who became Mets GM after the 2018 season. As a general rule, Van Wagenen had to give up on himself from the negotiations, but if you’re from Grom, you know Van Wagenen was aware of which would be needed to reach an agreement. In the spring 2019 lineup, deGrom signed for five years at $ 137.5 million. But almost 40% was deferred for 15 years, which drastically reduced the current value.
The Mets owe nothing more to deGrom. Had he been injured, the Mets would have had to pay every dollar. And it was not the Cohen / Alderson administration that signed it. But it is this administration that collaborated with Bauer.
DeGrom may stop participating after next season. The Mets can cope. But they want to risk, for example, bidding against the Dodgers, Yankees and Giants about to have tons of cash plus others. They now have the exclusivity to keep the second best pitcher in their history down and happy.
If deGrom does not choose to resign, his four-year contract is $ 130 million remaining, but reduced by deferrals. How about the Mets offering to end this and give a $ 144 million pact without a four-year deferral with a fifth-year option for $ 36 million or a $ 8 million purchase? The $ 152 million total guarantee is an average value of $ 38 million, which surpasses DeGrom’s $ 36 million Gerrit Cole for the largest average in history. Can deGrom try to pursue more? It could, but first it entails a correct launch at 33 and 34 years old. The offer is to lose the postponements and become the highest paid player now.
2. Try a cheap offer for breweries for Lorenzo Cain. The Mets talk to free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. about center field. He is a winning player who provides elite defense. But the question in 2021 continues if there is no NL DH, how would the Mets find enough batsmen for Bradley, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso and Dom Smith between center, left and first?
The same would happen if you replaced Bradley with Cain. Here come the buts: the Mets should offer Jeurys Family, Dellin Betances, Brad Brach and a good but not elite perspective (think someone like Franklyn Kilome). Family, Betances and Brach count $ 17.375 billion for tax payroll in 2021, Cain $ 17 million. So doing it this way allows the Mets to have more budget for 2021 to add, for example, even a Trevor Rosenthal to a bullring with Edwin Diaz, Miguel Castro, Aaron Loup, Seth Lugo and Trevor May .
Would small market brewers do this to escape Cain’s $ 18 million salary in 2022 when he will have 36? It doesn’t hurt to ask. Cain’s right-hand bat (Bradley is a left-hander), age and who opted for most of last season would make it easier, for example, to start him in 110-120 games and turn the other bats if there is no DH , despite playing his defense late when he doesn’t start.
3. Place an initial spin bet. The Mets improved this offseason, especially in the middle, especially with Francisco Lindor. But the Braves are likely to be better in a stacked northeast zone and the Dodgers are certainly better overall in the American zone. The Mets should think about what, if it works, would close the gap.
I have no illusions about James Paxton. It doesn’t stay healthy. It’s all risky. But unlike any other market initiator, especially one who can make a one-year deal, the left has the best things. Can you dream of a scenario where Paxton can take you to June-ish for the return of Noah Syndergaard and both of them are healthy by September / October to join deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Marcus Stroman? It’s a rotation that could win any short series.
4. A no vote to Justin Turner. With Bauer, the Dodgers project a $ 237 million payroll. Maybe now they close the rosette. This would make the game the most obvious landing place for Turner. It would create the opportunity for Alderson to reverse perhaps his worst move in the first half: Turner without a contest after the 2013 season. Turner has continued with seven seasons of Hall of Fame limit with the Dodgers.
But next year he will play at 36 and will surely take a multi-year deal to land (remember Robinson Cano’s salary returns for 2022-23 to further load the payroll). The Mets shouldn’t risk letting him go at the wrong time and bringing him back at the wrong time. JD Davis is the third baseman on paper. I’m curious, though, if Luis Guillorme has a bit of Gio Urshela. There is no third base power possible with it. But he has some fantastic hands on both sides of the ball that would like them to have more chances, especially since third base is a position that should have commercial candidates available during the season if the Mets need to fix it on the fly.