The COVID-19 strain first discovered in the UK doubles in the US every 10 days, presenting a potential increased risk of cases and deaths in the country, according to a study published Sunday.
A group of researchers estimated that the UK variant, called B.1.1.7, extends to an increased transmission rate of 35 to 45 percent and is expected to become the predominant strain in the United States. in March. The study, published on the medRxiv server, has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a medical journal.
“Our study shows that the US has a similar trajectory to that of other countries where B.1.1.7 quickly became the dominant variant of SARS-CoV-2, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19, ”the study says. .
Scientists determined from half a million COVID-19 and 212 genome tests that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) prediction is that the UK strain would become the most prevalent coronavirus variant in the United States in March.
Kristian Andersen, co-author of the study and virologist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California, told the New York Times that “nothing in this article is surprising, but people should see it.”
Researchers estimate that the UK strain, first announced by the British government on December 20, emerged in the US as early as November. The first case was confirmed in the United States in Colorado on December 29 and has since spread to at least 33 states, according to the CDC..
According to the study, the strain found in the UK was brought to the United States at least eight times on different occasions, potentially due to the increase in Thanksgiving and Christmas trips between the two countries.
Using sequencing of their genome with the results of the laboratory test company’s Helix test, analysts determined their prediction of how quickly the coronavirus variant spread around the U.S. Helix by CDC to inspect samples. of the United Kingdom strain.
Scientists predict that the strain represents a higher percentage of COVID-19 cases in certain states like Florida, where an estimated 4.5% of cases come from the variant.
Taken together, the British variant is estimated to account for 2 percent of all cases in the United States, meaning 1,000 more people may be contracting the strain every day, the Times noted.
The CDC has reported 611 B.1.1.7 cases in the US, but the number is expected to be much higher due to the complicated method of confirming that one case comes from a UK strain.
In all, the United States has accounted for nearly 27 million cases and more than 463,000 deaths due to COVID-19, with January recording the highest number of deaths. and the highest average coronavirus hospitalizations of any month of the pandemic.