PHILADELPHIA (CBS): Saturday begins our storm day stretch as the first of three likely winter storms prepares to chase the Delaware Valley. A nasty winter mix will continue north throughout the morning and will likely overtake Philly and much of the urban corridor around 12 p.m.
The initial rainfall in Philly and much of the immediate suburbs will be snow, sleet and there will probably be icy rain as well. As the messy mix is shifting toward Philly, we will begin to see a shift to flatter rain on the coast, while areas of light snow could develop throughout the northern part of the counties.
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The mix in Philly and through the I-95 corridor will persist the rest of the afternoon and night before being slightly lighter at night.
The warm air will continue to intrude north and throughout the afternoon, and we are likely to move from snow / sleet to rain / more icy drizzle in the urban corridor during this time.
It will be possible to change from winter mix to normal rain on the coast, while the northern areas will remain with soft, moist snow.
The greatest risk of ice formation will occur during the night and Saturday evening, possibly also on Sunday morning. The reason for the high risk of icy rain is that Saturday’s surface temperatures will remain below freezing, while high temperatures in the lower / middle levels of the atmosphere will rise to above frost.
Saturday’s highs will be around 30 degrees.
The threat of the winter mix, including icy rain, will continue Sunday morning. The bulk of the rainfall will end in the early hours of Sunday morning, but there will still be some light and persistent areas of mixing or normal rain during the afternoon. Sunday’s highs will rise by the mid-30s.
When our weekend system is over, we try to have an enamel up to a tenth of an inch of ice accretion in the vast majority of the region.
However, there is a possibility that there will be a belt of higher ice accumulation in the interior of southern Jersey, where up to 0.25 inches of ice could be possible.
At this time, we do not call for a widespread ice storm, but power outages and very difficult trips can occur from Saturday afternoon until at least Sunday morning.
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The amounts of snow will be very low with this system. If something sticks, it would only represent about a maximum of 1 inch coating for the posts.
Monday offers a slight recovery from winter weather for at least a few hours while we wait for storm number two to appear. Monday will generally be cloudy, with possible periods of winter mixing during the day.
Those who see a winter weather on Monday will notice that it should be light and fast. The best opportunity to get a more robust winter mix comes on Monday night. Right now, our Monday night and Tuesday storm is tending a little warmer.
What this means for us is a better chance of seeing rain, sleet and freezing rain, with less chance of seeing snow, especially in Philly.
The second round of winter weather ends on Tuesday evening, leaving the opportunity to clear up quite well on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Definitely my new favorite graphic. The winter weapons chosen for this storm will be ice melting and sweeping. Wet snow / sleet can be made early with a change of icy rain / drizzle ending every Sunday morning @CBSPhilly pic.twitter.com/wynu8jF22a
– Matt Peterson (@MPetersonWx) February 13, 2021
This will also allow high Arctic pressure to take control for at least a short time on Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday appears to be sunny but very cold, with highs only in the 1930s.
The sunny skies are short-lived while the storm of the week arrives on Thursday. Thursday’s storm now looks like it should start as snow / mix in most of the region before a transition to rain and mix, then all the rain for most.
As the system progresses to Friday, a transition to snow or rain / snow will be possible. An early look at next weekend shows that we can finally have a couple of quiet days after the rocky road that is on our way.
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