More than 600,000 Americans will have died of Covid-19 on June 1, according to the latest forecasts from the Institute of Health Metrics and Assessment (IHME) at the University of Washington.
The model predicted a death toll of 614,503 Americans, slightly lower than the previous forecast released last week, which predicted 631,000 deaths.
According to the IHME, warmer weather and wider vaccination could help reduce transmission by August.
“We expect vaccination to reach 145 million adults on June 1 and this expansion will prevent 114,000 deaths,” IHME said in a statement.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 50 million doses of vaccine have been administered nationwide. And if 95% of Americans started wearing masks the following week, 34,000 lives could be saved.
The UK variant: The spread of the B.1.1.7 virus variant, first identified in the UK, could complicate any potential fall. At least 981 cases of variant B.1.1.7 have been found in 37 states, the CDC said this week.
The team said it had considered the planned variant for this forecast. In the worst case, U.S. deaths could reach 645,000 on June 1.
Other factors: Progress could also be reversed if people lower their guards, IHME said.
“Transmission has been maintained over the winter through the use of masks, decreased mobility, and the prevention of high-risk scenarios, such as indoor eating,” IHME said. “As daily cases decrease and vaccination increases, behaviors are likely to change toward an increased risk of transmission.”