Russia and China are trying to increase global influence

LONDON – International diplomacy is likely to determine who will have access to coronavirus vaccines in the coming months, analysts told CNBC, where countries such as Russia and China have seen one of the world’s most sought-after commodities used to advance in their own interests abroad.

It is hoped that the deployment of Covid-19 vaccines will help end the pandemic. Although many countries have not yet started vaccination programs, even high-income countries are facing a shortage of supplies as manufacturers struggle to increase production.

Russia and China had made the distribution of face masks and protective equipment to the affected countries a central principle of diplomatic relations last year. Now, both countries are seen to be taking a transactional approach to vaccine delivery.

Agathe Demarais, global director of forecasting for the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC by telephone that Russia, China and, to a lesser extent, India, are committed to providing Covid vaccines to emerging or low-income countries to advance your interests.

“Russia and China have been doing this for a very, very long time … especially in emerging countries because they believe that traditional Western powers have withdrawn from those countries,” Demarais said.

“In the past, although it is still the case, we saw China launch the Road and Belt Initiative, we saw Russia doing various things, especially in the Middle East countries, with nuclear power plants, and vaccine diplomacy is a novelty in its attempt to strengthen its global position. “

This strategy is likely to see Russia and China consolidate a long-term presence in countries around the world, said Demarais, who noted that the fundamental importance of vaccines for populations will make it “super super complicated” that countries resist diplomatic pressure in the future.

The problem with Moscow and Beijing, however, is that “there is a great chance” that they will both go overpriced and under-supplied, he added.

Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine and China’s Sinopharm and Sinovac vaccines have already begun to be implemented worldwide. A total of 26 countries, including Argentina, Hungary, Tunisia and Turkmenistan, have authorized Russia’s Covid vaccine. China’s customer queue includes Brazil, Indonesia, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates, among others.

Analysts say both Russia and China have signed supply agreements that strengthen pre-existing political alliances, but problems producing Western-made vaccines may be a sufficient incentive for some non-traditional allies to look to Moscow and Beijing.

Russia and China are currently unable to meet the supply demands for vaccines from their respective domestic markets and continue to export to countries around the world. Production is the main obstacle to this challenge, while many high-income countries have pre-ordered more doses than they need.

A report released by the Economist Intelligence Unit last month projected that most of the adult population of advanced economies would be vaccinated by mid-next year. In contrast, this chronology extends to early 2023 for many middle-income countries and even to 2024 for some low-income countries.

It highlights the global mismatch between supply and demand and the strong divide between high- and low-income countries when it comes to accessing vaccines.

Last month, the top official of the World Health Organization warned that the world was on the brink of a “catastrophic moral failure” due to unequal covide vaccine policies.

Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on January 18 that it was clear that while they speak the language of equitable access to vaccines, “some countries and companies continue to prioritize bilateral agreements, turning to COVAX, raising prices and trying to jump to the front of the tail “.

“This is wrong,” he added.

Tedros condemned what he described as a “focus for me first” of high-income countries, and claimed that he defeats himself and puts at risk the poorest and most vulnerable people in the world. Almost all high-income countries have prioritized the distribution of vaccines to their own populations.

When asked if there was any possibility that countries would change the so-called first approach after the WHO warning about vaccine diplomacy, Demarais replied: “No, it will not happen. I follow it very closely. and it’s very depressing. “

COVAX is one of the three pillars of the so-called COVID-19 tool accelerator, introduced by the WHO, the European Commission and France last April. It focuses on equitable access to Covid diagnoses, treatments and vaccines to help less rich countries.

Analysts have long been skeptical about COVAX’s efficiency in supplying Covid vaccines to middle- and low-income countries around the world, despite requests from several heads of state of global solidarity at the start of the pandemic.

The international aid group Medecins Sans Frontieres has described what we see today in terms of access to vaccines worldwide as “far from an image of equity”.

“The big challenge, once away from the global level, is that every time a country reaches a bilateral agreement it makes it much harder to put vaccines in the multilateral pot through COVAX,” said Suerie Moon, co-director of Global Health Center from the Graduate Institute in Geneva, he told CNBC by telephone.

In addition to this concern, Moon said, “Right now we don’t have any system at the international level, for example, to make sure you can match the effectiveness of the vaccine with wherever there is a variant circulating.”

He cited South Africa as a striking example. Earlier this month, South Africa suspended the launch of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine after a study raised doubts about its effectiveness against a highly infectious variant discovered in the country.

“In a rational and ethical world, South Africa would suddenly have access to effective vaccines against its variant and AstraZeneca vaccines could be shipped to another part of the world where this variant is not in circulation. That would be the rational way to do it. “But we just don’t have arrangements for that kind of transaction,” Moon said.

“Ideally, it’s the kind of thing that happens if you have strong international cooperation, but I think it’s actually going to be a disaster,” he continued.

“We will have vaccines that expire in some countries when they can be used elsewhere, we will have effective vaccines in one place, but they are not in the right place (and) we will have excess vaccines insured as a safety measure while in another country people will not has nothing “.