The Mets play with the game on the rise.
They did so to some extent with Trevor May, with a larger one with James McCann, and even marked it a few more steps to reach an agreement with Taijuan Walker over a several-year contract.
The Mets have ensured that three major functions (and $ 78 million) expect an abbreviated 2020 to be a true indicator of who they are now and at least in the short term future. It also means they don’t guarantee anything to more proven / talented options, like Liam Hendriks, JT Realmuto and Trevor Bauer.
And wasn’t one of Steve Cohen’s advantages supposed to be that the Mets could stop accepting the second and third and fourth best alternatives?
Imagine November 10, the day of Cohen’s introductory press conference that sparked the optimism of Mets fans, who would have told you that the Mets will not sign any (ZERO) of the top six free agents this offseason. . That would have felt impossible, right?
Now, the Mets have switched to Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco and, who knows, before spring training is done, they may announce long-term overtime for Lindor, possibly even Michael Conforto.
But this is the off-season when most teams were generally out of free agency. The Yankees only had their eyes on the retention of DJ LeMahieu, the Dodgers only on a rising play by Bauer and the retention of Justin Turner. When will it be next winter when the Mets have this little competition at the top of the market?
Still, these Mets have invested in volume as much as anything. Walker will be the Mets ’eighth free agent contract in the Major League. Only puppies and giants, with nine, have more. The total cost is $ 94.15 million, less than the Yankees ($ 104.15 million), who we think have an inactive season. Still, it is the fifth most spent so far in free agency.
What the Mets expect is that they surround a strong core led by Conforto, Jacob deGrom, Edwin Diaz, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo and Dom Smith with a superstar at Lindor via trade, in addition to the general depth type for which they have been burned for lack in recent years. Within this depth, they have seen the potential of more than complementary players.
Since May returned from Tommy John surgery in 2018, it has been very good, but includes two seasons (2018 and ’20) of 24 appearances each and a total of 113 entries in three years. He posted an ERA of 3.10 at that time with 12.2 kicks for nine innings. With Seth Lugo (elbow) out for at least a month of the regular season, May may have to be Mr. April.
McCann enjoyed two strong seasons with the White Sox, especially last year, when his OPS soared to .896 and all data on the pitch framing began to value him better. But questions remain about whether he will do well on the right-hander pitch, plus he has faded in each of the last two years as his workload increased – and he’s the clear No. 1 receiver for the Mets, who wasn’t last year with Chicago.
Walker released 53 1/3 season posts last season, which isn’t much, but it’s more than he had produced due to a nebula of injuries since 2017. His ERA working 11 starts in Seattle and Toronto in 2020 was 2.70. But his independent pitching ERA was 4.56 because the opposition only had a batting average of 0.243 on the balls in play. A low average usually indicates at least one element of luck, especially for a pitcher who walks a drop too low and makes a drop too low like Walker. And the Mets, even with the Lindor upgrade, do not project to be a strong defensive team in 2021.
Still, the Mets saw enough to guarantee Walker two years at $ 20 million (or three at $ 23 million if Walker activates a third-year option; the pending contract of a physicist was agreed). The Mets see a 28-year-old headline prepared perhaps to offer early years of health and at least resistance to average rotation.
In their idealized setting, the Mets wanted to have a rotation that would put a legitimate starting candidate in Triple-A, something they can now do with Joey Lucchesi or more likely with David Peterson behind DeGrom, Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and Walker; with Noah Syndergaard around June after Tommy John’s surgery.
A Walker that can give the Mets, for example, 140 innings and an ERA of 4.00 serves the purposes of a team that believes its strengths are deGrom leading a strong front rotation of three (maybe four when Syndergaard returns) , a superior offense and a capable bullpen who has a chance to be much better than that. And if 2020 was real for Walker and not an aberration, the Mets will get a strong starter, not to mention a quality prep man in May and a front-line catcher for McCann.
This is the upward play. The Mets are betting on depth overall and 2020 was just the beginning of the three most expensive external free agents they bought this offseason.