Why COVID-19 herd immunity may be closer than we think

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There is an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal that says we are closer to the herd’s immunity than we know. He argues that if we look at T cells (cells reminiscent of past infections), we will find that many people have developed immunity to COVID-19 without ever having had any symptoms.

Dr. Gordon Cohen, MD of Mercer Island, joined Seattle’s Morning News to discuss.

“One of the things that has been largely ignored among all these terrible warnings from COVID is the fact that COVID cases have dropped 77% in the last six weeks. So this opinion article by Dr. Marty Makary, who is a well-known surgeon and public health expert, says that “if a drug reduces cases by 77%, we will call it a miracle pill.” So he raises the question: why is the number of cases plummeting? And it has to do with the different types of immunity our bodies have, antibodies versus T cells, ”said Dr. Cohen.

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According to this theory, the figures behind the mortality rate and the infection rate seem to indicate a wider herd immunity than originally thought.

“When we’re testing for antibodies, it doesn’t capture these antigen-specific T cells or memory T cells once they’re activated by the virus. And it’s pretty interesting to note that people who survived the Spanish flu of 1918 they were found in 2008 (90 years later) with memory T cells that were still able to produce neutralizing antibodies, ”he said.

“So what he’s saying is that one in every 600 Americans has died from COVID-19, which translates into a population mortality rate around 0.15%. theoretical mortality from COVID-19 But the current mortality rate from COVID-19 infection is 0.23%, so these figures suggest that approximately two-thirds of the U.S. population has already had the infection (potentially unknowingly -ho) “.

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In other words, the tests that have been done are to test the antibodies that are currently fighting the infection. Once these antibodies are gone, the T cells are allowed to remember that infection, and these are the ones that really protect you from future infection. But the evidence does not reveal its existence.

“This is how our body naturally develops immunity. But when we are testing people to see if they have a response to vaccination, we are testing antibodies, we are not testing the activity of T cells. So what he has pointed out is using a variety of mathematical models, it is possible that a in April, based on their mathematical data and what we know about the disease, COVID-19 may have largely disappeared, ”said Dr. Cohen. .

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