Preliminary data show that New Ideas will control Congress. However, it is not yet possible to determine how many seats each party won
According to the latest data revealed by the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE), until the close of this note, the New Ideas party would be gaining majority control of the Legislative Assembly, with more than 320,000 votes nationwide .
However, these figures still do not reflect how many legislative seats the New Ideas party would have won across the country, or how many seats it will get in coalitions with WIN, how many deputies the latter party will have, also akin to officialdom, or whether Democratic Change, another close to Bukele, will manage to sneak some legislators.
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The results also do not allow us to know how the opponents of ARENA, FMLN, PCN, PDC, El Temps and Anem will be able to face the deputies related to the Government of Nayib Bukele.
However, it can be anticipated that Nayib Bukele will govern the last three years of his tenure with a friendly Assembly.
Slow process to know results
The results of the elections on February 28 were dripping. This, after several hours in which the computer system was saturated because there were four million people per second consulting the website of the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE), as reported by the magistrate of this body, Noel Orellana, who warned that for this reason the data being processed by the Vote Receiving Boards (JRV) could not be observed.
When publishing the seat of the Court, a main graph was observed that contained the general data of the votes by party at national level.
This reflected a broad preference for the New Ideas party. This, however, only reflected the number of votes, not seats, as the allocation of these is made more complex by the quotient and waste system.
The advantage, however, was clear. The TTS chart showed that, with 2,216 acts processed out of a total of 8,451 nationwide (or 26.22%), New Ideas accumulated more than 320,000 votes nationwide. He was followed by the coalition NI-Win, SAND, FMLN, WIN, PCN, PDC, Our Time, Let’s Go and CD.
Whereas, in San Salvador, department where 24 legislative seats are disputed, with 76 processed acts of a total of 2,206 (that is to say 3.45%), New Ideas took the front with 10,446 votes; followed by the ARENA coalition with 1,740 votes; the FMLN with 904.79 votes; WIN with 620 votes; Our Time with 507; We go with 303 votes; PCN with 270 votes; PDC with 197 votes, CD with 108 votes and non-partisan deputy Leonardo Bonilla with 42 votes. These results, however, are too low to project how many, of the 24 legislators in the most populous department, will go for each party in dispute.
In La Llibertat, where 10 seats are contested, just 9% of the acts had been processed, out of a total of 988 until the closing of this note. The TSE website counted 89 counts, giving a favorable result to New Ideas with 14,378 votes. ARENA came in second with 4,157 votes; WIN with 1,343 votes and Our Time held the third place with 1,054 votes.
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In Sant Miquel, out of a total of 668 acts, at one in the morning of this Monday 59 had been processed, which is equivalent to 8.83% of the total number of acts.
According to this result, New Ideas reflected 6,388 votes; followed by the FMLN with 1,444 votes; the PDC with 1,171 votes; then ARENA with 855 votes; followed by WIN with 820 votes, being these the parties with greater amount of votes.
The electoral atmosphere at the Damián Villacorta school, in Santa Tecla. Photo / René Quintanilla
In Sant Miquel unlike other departments, the FMLN managed to position itself in second place, but it should be noted that the number of votes does not represent the number of seats that will be arranged for each party.
These figures simply serve to have a picture of the political landscape of El Salvador at this time. It will not be until the end of the scrutiny of each department when it is known how many seats each party will get and then it will be known who are the deputies who will fill each when the preferences are counted.
Legislative Assembly, the pending link to Bukele
On February 3, 2019, with around 53% of the vote, Nayib Bukele won the presidency of the Republic in the first round.
This gave it wide legitimacy and its popularity grew, but due to the type of electoral calendar in El Salvador, it still did not have deputies from its own movement.
Therefore, 2021 was the key date for officialdom, as it will depend on what result Nayib Bukele will be able to govern for the remaining three years at the helm of the Executive.
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It is clear that his party, New Ideas, will have more deputies than any other party and that along with WIN and CD will add as many. However, it is not yet known what the composition of the new legislature will be.
It will also depend on whether the president will be able to promote his agenda without setbacks with deputies under his control or whether he will have to submit to negotiations with other parties to get the missing votes for various initiatives in Congress.
Within the Legislature, there are three types of majorities, each with its own powers (see attached numerals). The simple majority allows governability in most areas and is achieved with 43 of 84 deputies. The qualified, with 56, opens the door to second-degree appointments and indebtedness, among other areas. And the super-skilled opens the door to limiting the most protected constitutional rights and ratifying territorial boundary treaties. With the final results, it will be known what the officialdom will be able to achieve and what will be the key that the opposition will have.