A series of back-and-forth retaliatory moves and antagonistic statements between Washington and Tehran are increasingly jeopardizing the Biden administration’s plans to return to Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal.
“You can’t act with impunity. Be careful,” President Joe Biden told reporters on Friday, describing his message to Iran after ordering airstrikes on buildings in eastern Syria that the Pentagon he says they were being used by Iranian-backed militias.
The strikes were in retaliation for a Feb. 15 attack that saw rockets hit Erbil International Airport in Iraq, home to coalition military forces. The attack, which Western and Iraqi officials attribute to Iran-backed militia forces, killed a U.S.-led coalition contractor and injured several others, including a member of the U.S. service. Iran rejects allegations of involvement.
None of this bodes well for what the Biden administration considers a foreign policy priority: a return to the Iranian nuclear deal, also known as the JCPOA, which was established under the Obama administration with various world powers and it lifted economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for limiting its nuclear program.
The deal has almost collapsed since the Trump administration unilaterally abandoned it in 2018 and re-imposed general sanctions on Iran that have paralyzed its economy.
Whether the deal can be reclaimed or when it is a critical issue for Biden’s team’s foreign policy and legacy in the Middle East. Former US diplomat Joseph Westphal, who served as ambassador to Saudi Arabia during Obama’s second term, does not see this happening in the short or even medium term.
“I don’t think we’ll see a deal” this year, Westphal told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Monday. “I think it’s possible we’ll see the start of negotiations to reach an agreement. The end of the year is coming fast. And I think these things take a long time.”
An invitation and a rejection
In early February, Biden’s team took a big step in offering to start informal negotiations with Tehran, indicating the first U.S. diplomatic spread in more than four years. The Iranian leadership over the weekend declined the invitation.
Attempting some rapprochement is difficult for Biden. He faces substantial internal opposition to the deal with Iran and does not want to seem “soft” to the country’s regime, especially at a time when Iran is increasing uranium enrichment and storing it in violation of the agreement, movements that bring it closer to pump manufacturing capacity.
Tehran insists that this responds to U.S. sanctions and that its actions can be reversed if sanctions are removed first; Biden, meanwhile, says it will only lift economic sanctions if Tehran backs down its violations. The two are at a standstill.
Last week, Tehran restricted the access of the United Nations nuclear watchdog to its nuclear activities, which jeopardized the deal, although inspectors still retain some access. And on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran of being behind an attack on one of its tankers off the coast of Oman on Friday. Iran denies any involvement.
Attempts to level the playing field
However, not everyone believes that this year they cannot return to the JCPOA. Ayham Kamel, head of Middle East practices at the Eurasian group’s political risk consultancy, sees the current escalations as an attempt to balance the playing field.
“There is no easy path for JCPOA plus. I think everything that is happening now in the region: part of the climbing in Iraq, part of the climbing in Iran, even the Iranians who they reject the first offer of direct negotiations with the US – I think this is all pre-negotiation, ”Kamel said.
“It’s an effort to really balance the field. The Iranians are trying to make the most of this process. The JCPOA will pass, the re-entry will occur at some point this year in my opinion, but it will be difficult.”
Kamel added that the Iranian leadership itself remains divided in returning to the agreement, as it weighs on the need for economic relief from sanctions and its opposition to meeting U.S. demands.
“The supreme leader wants an agreement, but many in the IRGC (Revolutionary Guard Corps) do not necessarily want to start a weak negotiation,” he said, referring to Iran’s powerful and ideological parallel military force. “They want negotiations to start from a strong position and regional escalation is part of that.”
Others believe a return to the agreement is inevitable simply because the Iranian economy has been devastated by sanctions. Its currency is in free fall, its exports have shrunk and Iranians are struggling to afford food and medicine.
“I think an agreement is finally possible,” Richard Goldberg of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies told CNBC earlier this month, “because the Iranians need money.”