This is how the most polluting China plans to be greener by 2025

Photographer: Qilai Shen / Bloomberg

China’s trip to carbon neutrality took its first step on Friday as the country announced targets to reduce emissions over the next five years.

The country plans to reduce carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 18% by 2025 and energy consumption per unit of GDP by 13.5%, Premier Li Keqiang said at the inauguration of the National People’s Congress. It also plans to increase non-fossil fuels to 20% of energy consumption by then and will create an action plan this year to detail how it aims to reach maximum emissions by 2030.

Renewables on the rise

China raises the part of its energy it gets from carbon-free sources

Source: National Statistics Office

At the same time, China plans to continue to increase domestic production of fossil fuels such as coal and oil to improve energy security, a key concern for the world’s largest importer of raw materials. And it plans to continue developing nuclear power after failing to meet the sector’s targets in the past five years.

Li’s speech and the country’s fourteenth five-year plan, which spans 2021 through 2025, represent Beijing’s first strategic plan since September, when Xi Jinping set a net emissions target for 2060.

Learn about how China is setting a conservative growth target here.

The following explains how it could affect some key energy and climate sectors:

Energy efficiency

China began to industrialize its economy more than a century after countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom, so its energy consumption continues to grow as others have reached the highest or highest point. . Beijing has been reluctant to curb growth by limiting energy consumption, so it has focused on using it more efficiently.

Goliath of greenhouse gases

Last year, China accounted for more than 30% of global carbon emissions

Source: Robbie Andrew and Global Carbon Project

The new target of reducing energy use per unit of GDP by 13.5% is slightly lower than the 15% target set by the country in its latest five-year plan. China exceeded this target, reducing energy intensity by about 18% during the period 2016-2020. State Grid Corp. of China, the nation’s utility giant, earlier this week a greater focus on energy efficiency and demand-side reforms was noted over the next five years, saying they represent a cheaper solution than adding new energy supply.

Carbon emissions

Like energy use, China’s focus on emissions has been to reduce intensity rather than set an overall goal. The 18% reduction target over the next five years is the same level he aimed for and successfully achieved in the last plan.

Lose intensity

China wants to continue emitting less carbon per unit of GDP it produces

Source: International Energy Agency

However, as GDP continues to grow, emissions have also increased and China released 9.8 billion tonnes of carbon in 2019, almost 29% of the world total, according to data from BP Plc. Climate experts say China must set an absolute limit, and the Clean Energy and Air Research Center says it should be 8.75 million tonnes by 2025 to reach the linear path to the goal of neutrality of carbon in 2060.

Coal

Coal is the most polluting fossil fuel and China extracts and burns half of the world’s supply. Beijing has managed to reduce the share of coal in its energy mix in recent years, but this has happened as total energy consumption has increased, which means that the amount of coal burned has not changed much. since the early 2010s.

Reduction of coal dependence

China exceeded the goal of reducing the share of coal in its energy mix

Source: National Statistics Office

This trend is likely to continue in the next five-year plan. He told China that it will continue to promote clean and efficient use of fuel, while making a big push to develop new energy sources. And the country will continue to build coal, oil and gas production systems. The country’s coal industry group earlier this week said it plans to increase production by 2025 and that total consumption will be slightly higher at the end of the period than in 2020.

Net energy

China’s goal of achieving 20% ​​of its energy through non-fossil fuel sources by 2025 is faster than the previous goal of achieving this mark by 2030 and illustrates the country’s enormous success. has had momentum solar and wind capacity facilities in recent years. The country will continue to develop these sources “efficiently” and promote hydrogen, pumped hydraulic power and energy storage over the next five years.

Roar of renewables

China’s solar and wind capacity is expected to increase in the coming years

Source: BloombergNEF forecasts

He also reiterated China’s support for nuclear power, after falling far short of its latest five-year plan to have 58 gigawatts of plants by 2020, ending with just under 50. Over the next few years. five years on, the country plans to increase the energy-sharing capacity of atoms by between 40% and 70 gigawatts.

Electrification