I’ve been studying the NFL draft since 1979 and I’ve seen a lot of quarterbacks. Some great, some terrible. Some first round selections that made the Hall of Fame and some of the top 10 selections that were full busts.
So recently I was asked where Trevor Lawrence of Clemson ranked among the quarterbacks with the best grade I’ve studied, I just said, “It’s up there.” However, I really wanted to dig deeper and check their degree compared to the rest of mine over the last 40 years. Listed below are the top ten quarterbacks on this list, based on mine pre-draft degrees. It doesn’t reflect their performance in the NFL, but rather where they had valued them the day before their respective drafts.
You’ll notice that this list and that order are slightly different from when I did something similar in 2011. That’s because I added Andrew Luck from the 2012 class, plus a quarterback who was still playing at number 10. And when he came back through my grades and scan reports, I found that the 2011 list was not entirely accurate because I was using a couple of March scan reports against my final April scan reports. Don’t worry, though: I don’t hide from the height I had on a couple of legendary busts, as you’ll see below.
Let’s delve into my top-rated quarterbacks since 1979 and include excerpts from my final Scouting reports, quick notes on how their careers ended, and where Lawrence fits into the 2021 class:
Draft class: 1983
Harvest: Number 1 overall, Denver Broncos
What I wrote then: “Perhaps the best assessment of his talent was given by Cardinals coach Paul Wiggin, who said:” He has the confidence and field instincts of John Brodie, Archie Manning’s special human qualities and physical attributes. of Terry Bradshaw “. In my final evaluation, Elway received the highest ratings that can be achieved in all categories. He has no noticeable weaknesses and is the prototype of QB. Undoubtedly, Elway is an All-Pro NFL QB that he can’t miss, that he has the ability to make his own place in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. “
Career notes: Elway started 231 games for the Broncos and won two Super Bowls to close out his 16-year career in the NFL. His 300 career touchdown steps rank 12th all-time. He entered the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2004.
Draft class: 2012
Harvest: Number 1 overall, Indianapolis Colts
What I wrote then: “Luck has all its dimensions, incredible intelligence, precision and a great work ethic. I compare it a lot to Peyton Manning, but luck is more athletic. That’s why the expectations of luck will be through the roof. he has the general makeup needed to deal with that kind of pressure and enjoy a race to match the hype. “
Career notes: Luck scored four Pro Bowls in his seven-year career before retiring abruptly before the 2019 season. He was named NFL Comeback Player of the Year in 2018 after losing the entire 2017 season with injuries. He finished his career with 171 touchdown passes and 83 interceptions.
Draft class: 1998
Harvest: Number 1 overall, Indianapolis Colts
What I wrote then: “It won’t provide the extra dimension of a Steve Young, but I can’t think of a player I’d rather have under the center to lead my football team into battle. With a free agency, teams change staff every year. need for consistency and leadership at QB to be more critical than ever. Manning will win and gain a lot on a professional level as long as, of course, he receives the necessary assistance from his teammates and the organization. “
Career notes: Manning threw 28 interceptions as a rookie but then settled into an elite quarterback. He was named All-Pro of the first team seven times, was named five-time MVP of the regular season and won two Super Bowl titles, one with the Colts and one with the Broncos. He will enter the Hall of Fame in the 2021 class later this year.
Draft class: 2021
Pre-scan scan report: “Lawrence is the best potential in this category. He will go No. 1 in the Jaguars and will have a chance to lead the change in this franchise alongside coach Urban Meyer. He has everything the NFL teams want in a starting quarterback, from size to helping talent to the ability to process readings and make the right throw. Lawrence finished his career at Clemson with 108 total touchdowns (18 runs) and just 17 interceptions in three seasons. “
Lawrence was operated on to repair damage to his left shoulder labrum last month. He told ESPN’s Stephania Bell that his rehabilitation is going better than expected and that he should be ready for training camp in July.
Draft class: 1983
Harvest: Num. 14 in general, Buffalo Bills
What I wrote then: “Kelly accumulated impressive stats during his career and, like John Elway, played against very strong competition (six bowling teams in 1981). Outside of Elway, Kelly is the most gifted of the QBs to come out of the college ranks this season.The transition to pro football should be smooth.He would have been one of the top five players to have been selected if he had not been injured but would have to go to the middle of the first round, depending on the outcome “I have a feeling that in three years’ time Kelly will be considered one of the best QBs in the NFL.”
Career notes: Kelly turned down the Bills for the USFL, which played two seasons for the Houston Gamblers. He joined Buffalo in 1986 and played 11 seasons for the Bills, leading them to four Super Bowls in a row. He was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2002.
Draft class: 1990
Harvest: Num. 7 in general, Detroit Lions
What I wrote then: “A key factor in getting such a high rating is the leadership qualities he possesses, as well as his intelligence, balance and overall presence. I could go on forever about his qualities as a player and a person, but I need space to the other prospects He must be the first QB selected in any draft, he is so good! In fact, if he goes to the right team, I would not be surprised to see him lead his club to the Super Bowl at the beginning of his career. “Even if he doesn’t, he can be reasonably assured that he will enjoy a successful career, earning great honors throughout his stay in the NFL.”
Career notes: Ware made just six outings over four NFL seasons, throwing five touchdown passes and eight touchdowns. Rodney Peete was the Lions ’favorite starter under coach Wayne Fontes.
Draft class: 1993
Harvest: Number 1 overall, New England Patriots
What I wrote then: “I’ve been praising his skill level and raw potential since he entered the WSU campus in 1990, and nothing has changed since then to dampen my enthusiasm. Like all young and mature QBs, he has to develop a little more tact.No QB in college football, either this year or in the years to come, can touch Bledsoe in terms of raw physical potential.That’s why he values me as the No. 1 player on my leaderboard. and it is clearly the most coveted prospect of the draft. “
Career notes: Bledsoe had a good career, but is now perhaps best known as the guy who lost his initial job with Tom Brady, and Brady became the greatest quarterback in history. Bledsoe led the Patriots to the Super Bowl in 1996, and also began games for the Cowboys and Bills after leaving New England. He threw 251 touchdown passes.
8. Ryan Leaf, Washington State
Draft class: 1998
Harvest: No. 2 overall, San Diego Chargers
What I wrote then: “Physically, he has always had what it takes to be one of the first players selected. However, his attention to detail last summer and his willingness to devote himself to the practice field pushed him above development. in a full QB. Leaf is the guy who can individually put a team on the winning column, which on a professional level is the ultimate sign of greatness. “
Career notes: Leaf Vs. Manning was a massive debate in 1998 and the Colts made the right decision with the best selection. Leaf had a sad career, going from 4 to 17 in his career as an NFL starter. He was released by the Chargers after three “turbulent” seasons. “With Ryan, there were too many off-field problems that I guess I should have paid more attention to,” Bobby Beathard, a former Chargers general manager, said years later. Leaf finished his career with 14 touchdown passes and 36 selections.
Draft class: 1989
Harvest: Number 1 overall, Dallas Cowboys
What I wrote then: “Aikman has exceptional physical / athletic talent, running below 4.7 to almost 220 pounds. He throws everything from his ear, using his quick release to avoid possible sacks. His mobility is a real advantage, as which allows him to move his pocket and deliver the ball as he moves to both sides.He values as a super blue shredder capable of transforming a winery into an aspirant early in his career.However, like all young QBs, you will need time to hone your skills on a professional level and be at a bit of a disadvantage because you don’t have the general experience of former highlights like John Elway, Dan Marino, Jim Kelly and Vinny Testaverde, having played only two full years at college level “.
Career notes: Aikman was 0-11 as a starter as a rookie, but he and the Cowboys turned it around. He won three Super Bowl titles and formed six Pro Bowl teams for 12 seasons. He was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2006.
Draft class: 2018
Harvest: Num. 7 in general, Buffalo Bills
What I wrote then: “Allen has crushed the pre-draft process and is in the combination of being No. 1 overall. He has shown improvement in the Senior Bowl and the Combine, and he has a high ceiling. Allen is super raw but he can really The his numbers weren’t great in 2016 (28 touchdown passes, 15 interceptions while completing 56% of his passes) and his numbers weren’t fantastic in 2017 (16 touchdown passes, six interceptions while completing 56 , 3% of his passes), but NFL teams will take into account the talent around him.Wyoming’s offense lost 47 touchdowns to the 2016 team, along with his center. Allen’s numbers will be much better in an NFL offense with NFL players filmed together in the Cowboys bowl victory, throwing three touchdown passes in the first half, even while recovering from an injury to the shoulder “.
Career notes: Allen exploded in Year 3 at Buffalo, completing 69.2% of his passes and throwing 37 touchdown passes with just 10 selections. He finished second in the MVP vote while leading the Bills to the AFC title match. Allen, who turns 25 this summer, has entered the first tier of signal calls in the NFL.
Next on the list
The notes are extremely similar here, but here are some that follow, in no particular order: