Dutch vote amid a strict coronavirus blockade

Dutch voters went to the polls on Monday in a general election it is seen largely as a referendum on the government’s management of the coronavirus pandemic.

Acting Prime Minister Mark Rutte and his center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) are expected to win a fourth term, although his party has been shaken by the scandal and accusations that the pandemic has mismanaged.

Three days of voting began Monday morning and will end Wednesday evening, with voting split due to the ongoing public health crisis.

Opinion polls show that the VVD is ahead of the gang in terms of voter popularity, although it is dragged by the right-wing opposition Nationalist Party for Freedom, led by controversial figure Geert Wilders.

Four polls released last week predicted that Rutte’s VVD party could occupy between 30 and 40 seats in parliament, compared to polls showing that Wilders ’Freedom Party could win between 19 and 24 seats. It is seen that the Christian Democratic appellate party gets the third highest number of seats, which is expected to get between 15 and 19 seats.

As polls indicate, the VVD is unlikely to get enough seats to rule alone in the 150-seat parliament, the House of Representatives, making another coalition government a likely outcome.

This may not be so simple; in 2017, the VVD took 225 days to form a coalition government with three other parties (the Christian Democratic Appeal, Democrats 66 and the Christian Union), the longest time needed to form a coalition in Dutch history.

Rutte’s VVD has gone through a few turbulent months apart from the pandemic. A recent scandal surrounding child benefit payments in which thousands of families were wrongly accused of child welfare fraud caused the entire government to resign en masse in January.

Rutte has held the role of janitor ever since and remains a popular politician despite some unpopular restrictions implemented during the pandemic. It is widely predicted that he will lead a fourth cabinet, although the composition of an expected coalition remains uncertain.

European Capital Economics economist Melanie Debono warned in a note last week that forming a coalition government could take even longer than the last 225-day record, though she noted it is unlikely to have a impact on the economy.

“In the Dutch multiparty system, the VVD will not be able to govern alone despite greater fragmentation than usual means forming a coalition may take longer than the record 225 days in 2017! But these stalemates have rarely had a major impact on the The VVD is campaigning for a higher minimum wage and lower taxes for full-time workers, although some of these plans will eventually be diluted when the reality of coalition policy bites, others parties also advocate a supportive fiscal policy. “

The Netherlands is one of the largest and most prosperous economies in the EU and has not been so poor during the pandemic. The Dutch economy contracted by 4% in 2020, compared to the 6.8% contraction experienced by the wider euro area.

Economists attribute to a large extent this more than feared economic contraction of the country’s first less strict closure last spring, its export-oriented economy and the fact that it does not depend on tourism – a sector that has collapsed during the pandemic.

““The Dutch economy performed relatively well in 2020,” Debono noted, “and after expanding in the fourth quarter (the fourth quarter), it ended the year closer to its pre-crisis level. than the other large economies. The recession was reduced because the first blockade was not as strict as elsewhere, the Dutch were already more accustomed to working from home and tourism is a relatively small part of the economy. “

However, the government’s attitude towards the blockade changed during the winter, as cases increased dramatically, prompting the government to implement a strict blockade (according to Dutch rules) in January. The harshest measures, including the night curfew, caused riots in parts of the country.

Like its neighbors, the Netherlands has experienced an increase in Covid infections in recent weeks, which has been largely attributed to the spread of more virulent variants of the virus.

In addition to its difficulties, the Netherlands was one of the last countries in the bloc to start its coronavirus vaccination program and vaccinations have proceeded at a slow pace.

The vaccination program will no doubt be further hampered by the decision of the Netherlands (as well as the rest of other countries) to pause vaccinations with the AstraZeneca / Oxford University trait due to concerns about possible side effects. , although the World Health Organization said there is no link between the shot and an increased risk of developing blood clots.

Bars, restaurants and gyms are closed while non-essential shops were allowed to reopen to a limited number of customers, by appointment only, in early March. From March 16, it will be possible to open stores to a limited number of customers as long as there is enough space between them. The curfew, the first since the Nazi occupation in World War II, is expected to continue until the end of March. Public meetings of more than two people are also prohibited.

Meanwhile, anti-blocking sentiment continues with riot police using a water cannon to break up an anti-blocking demonstration in The Hague this weekend. This latest blockade means the country’s economy is unlikely to avoid a contraction during the first quarter.

“Although the government began to reduce the blockade by 3^rd In March, many companies will have been closed for two-thirds of the first quarter (the first quarter) and others, for example, restaurants. But the Netherlands is still relatively well placed and, as elsewhere, GDP growth is expected to pick up from the second quarter, ”Debono of Capital Economics said.