A health worker cares for a Covid-19 patient in the ICU ward of Robert Bosch Hospital in Stuttgart, Germany, on Tuesday, January 12, 2021.
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It’s no secret that Germany has experienced a sharp rise in coronavirus cases in recent weeks, but one of the country’s leading health experts now warns of the “exponential growth” in the number of infections.
This comes at a time when the country has suspended the use of the AstraZeneca-Oxford University coronavirus vaccine.
Epidemiologist Dirk Brockmann, an expert at the Robert Koch Institute for Infectious Diseases, said a recent loosening of Covid restrictions has allowed a more virulent variant of the virus, first discovered in the UK in late last year, it spread rapidly.
“We are exactly on the side of the third wave. This can no longer be discussed. And at this point, we have eased the restrictions and this is accelerating exponential growth,” Brockmann told German network ARD on Tuesday.
“It’s been totally irrational to relax here. It’s just fueling that exponential growth,” he said.
Germany was praised for its initial response to the pandemic, managing to keep cases lower through an effective regime of monitoring and maintaining the mortality rate thanks to its modern hospital infrastructure.
But in recent months, during the winter and in the face of new, more virulent variants of the virus, it seems to be struggling to contain infections. The slow deployment of vaccines in the EU has not helped the issues, as the bloc faces criticism for its slow acquisition and deployment of vaccines. The implementation of vaccination in Germany has faced several obstacles, frustrating officials and health experts in the country.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and state leaders agreed earlier this month on a gradual reduction in restrictions along with an “emergency brake” that would allow authorities to reverse course if the number of infections grows above 100 per 100,000 on three consecutive days.
The emergency brake, according to the government, had been planned “in case we experienced exponential growth” of cases. Merkel and regional leaders are expected to review the measures on March 22, where they will decide whether or not to proceed to the next reopening step.
The number of cases per 100,000 registered on Tuesday was 83.7, up from 68 a week ago, and RKI said the metric could reach 200 by mid-next month, Reuters said in a report on Tuesday.
Currently, the closure of Germany will be extended at least until March 28, but some restrictions have already been eased as schools, nurseries and hairdressers reopen earlier this month.
Then bookstores and florists were allowed to reopen and some museums a week ago as well. However, regional rules may vary with states having discretion over how and when to reopen certain case indices.
On March 22, Germany’s five-point plan to reopen had foreseen that some restaurants, theaters and open-air cinemas could reopen. But the growing number of infections could derail this schedule.
Suspension of vaccines
The comments of the leading epidemiologist reach Germany and a handful of other European countries that have decided to suspend the use of the coronavirus vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford with concern about reports of blood clots in a handful of vaccinated people.
The decision has baffled experts around the world, however, with the World Health Organization and the European Medicines Agency (which are conducting a vaccine safety review), both insist that all available evidence show that the vaccine is safe and effective and does not call for a higher risk of blood clots, which are common in the general population.
The vaccine manufacturer itself has pointed out that the data show that the number of blood clots in the vaccinated population has actually been lower than might be expected to occur naturally.
The WHO and the EMA, which will have to publish the findings of its safety review on Thursday, say the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks and that countries should not pause their vaccination programs. However, more than a dozen European countries have suspended its use. This could lead to a dangerous increase in infections and deaths, according to experts.
“The latest figures suggest 40 deaths per 20 million people vaccinated with Astra-Zeneca spikes. Each case taken individually is always terrible, but this, in percentage, is statistically insignificant. In contrast, vaccination delays cost Europe about 2,000 more deaths a day, and tens of billions of euros in closures, closed companies, “Guido Cozzi, a professor of macroeconomics at St. Gallen University, said in a note on Tuesday.
Even if public health agencies such as the WHO and the EMA reiterate on Thursday that the vaccine is safe, experts fear it has already done more harm to the vaccine’s reputation.
The AstraZeneca vaccine has already faced several obstacles, ranging from question marks about the methodology and data of the trials, the erroneous hesitation about the effectiveness of the vaccine to people over 65 and the disputes over supply delays in the EU. Real-world data show that the vaccine is extremely effective in preventing severe covid cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in adults.