Even with the race to vaccinate as many Americans as possible accelerating, some experts warn that if Americans do not follow proper security and mitigation measures, the U.S. could see a resurgence of COVID-19.
Although the country’s daily average national case continues to decline (around 32.5% over the past month), nearly a third of all states have seen the average number of cases increase by at least 10%.
These 15 states are: Alaska, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oregon and West Virginia, according to an ABC News analysis of state data compiled Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Several states – Delaware, Idaho, Minnesota, Nevada, Oregon and West Virginia – have seen the average number of cases rise by at least 25% in the past week.
“I think Minnesota is really a harbinger of things to come. We’re loosening all the restrictions we’ve had and somehow we’re creating a perfect storm moment for virus transmission, whether it’s a variant or not.” , Michael Osterholm, epidemiologist and head of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, told ABC News’ “World News Tonight.”
Dr. Tara Smith, a professor of epidemiology at Kent State State University of Public Health, told ABC News that her “biggest concern” is the resurgence of the virus.
“I don’t expect to see anything as bad as we just recovered, but if we’re not careful, cases can escalate again if we leave the guard too soon,” Smith said.
There are also 18 states (Colorado, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, and Wyoming) they experience a plateau, not a decline, in daily averages.
Metropolitan areas, in particular, continue to struggle with high case rates. For weeks, New York City has led the nation in cases per 100,000 population, and last week New York City Mayor’s advisor Dr. Jay Varma said two newly emerged COVID-19 variants – the UK and the New York variant – could now account for most cases in the city.
However, it is still unclear whether these trends are unexpected or persistent risks with long-term consequences.
Smith believes the “confluence” of factors may be to blame, including the spread of COVID-19 variants and the loosening of health-related restrictions.
“The combination of rapid reopening, increased mobility and the spread of new variants of COVID is likely to be driving the upward trend in cases in many parts of the country,” said Drs. John Brownstein, director of innovation at Boston Children’s Hospital and contributor to ABC News “While we should be optimistic about the vaccine launch, the new increase, albeit short-lived, it will probably lead to hospitalizations and preventable deaths. “
According to data compiled by ABC News, in the past three weeks, more than two dozen states have reopened or plan to do so, dismantling the restrictions previously imposed in the pandemic.
U.S. governors are relaxing the rules on business and public meetings.
Arizona and West Virginia, for example, allow restaurants and bars to reopen completely. In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott has issued several executive orders detailing plans to reopen businesses and activities in Texas, tweeting, “I just announced that Texas is 100% OPEN.”
At least 17 states no longer have a mask mandate and even states like Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts and New York that were previously among the most prudent are reducing restrictions. On Friday, Connecticut plans to remove capacity limits for many businesses, such as restaurants, retail stores, fitness centers, as well as places of worship.
In the coming weeks, New York will increase indoor and outdoor meeting capacity, and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan has announced that capacity restrictions will be removed everywhere except large spaces.
“Cases are lower than in the big fall, the winter hike and vaccinations are on the rise, but we all need to be careful and realize that we haven’t left the forest yet,” Smith said.
However, other experts said they don’t care so much yet.
Jennifer Nuzzo, a public health researcher at Johns Hopkins University, told ABC News that while there is always the risk of a resurgence, especially in states that lifted restrictions and masked mandates, “I don’t usually care until that I don’t see a two-week upward trend in cases. “
Until the United States begins expanding vaccines to include other age and social groups, Nuzzo said he expects to see fluctuations in the data. But, he added, if these trends continue, a sustained increase in the daily average of cases in two weeks would be a cause for concern, as many states reduce the evidence.
The United States now averages just over a million tests a day, up from 1.8 million a day in January.
“I’m worried about the possibility that we’re missing some difference that might surprise us in a month or so, when it suddenly becomes very obvious,” Nuzzo said.
“We have seen throughout the pandemic that declining testing capacity creates unnecessary blind spots in our surveillance and probably results in a delayed public health response,” Brownstein added.
Experts agree that the safest way forward is vaccinations and more vaccinations.
“The best way to circumvent the variants is to continue vaccinating so many people as quickly and efficiently as possible, while maintaining public health measures,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the leading disease expert, told ABC News. of the nation. on Tuesday.
To date, 12% of the total U.S. population has been fully vaccinated and 22.2% have received at least one dose.
With approximately 500 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine expected to be in preparation by the end of May, more states are moving to open up eligibility requirements to allow access to anyone 16 years old. or more.
“Given that vaccines have been shown to offer broad protection against a wide range of variants,” Brownstein said. “These early warning signs reaffirm the need to maintain and even increase the pace of vaccination across the country.”